NFL Picks: Week 1

Last Season: 144-81

After a slow start, I thought I recovered nicely last season to come up with a pretty solid season winning percentage. And now I can use PFF stats. So yeah, since nobody donated to my Patreon (except one, thanks Dad), I couldn’t pay for a PFF account to better analyze these picks, so I just went and got a job with them. Go figure. But anyway, picks are back and I’m off to a slow start, as I picked the Falcons to beat the Eagles on Thursday night, which didn’t happen so let’s hope this goes better.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

This season of Hard Knocks may have been the best ever. It was funny, interesting, and eye-opening. It really makes me root for this Cleveland Browns team. However it also showed me another thing: Hue Jackson is a shitty head coach (great guy, though, would not mind having a beer with him). That coaches meeting from the first episode was all I needed to see to know why the Browns are 1-31 under Jackson. So despite the fact that the Steelers won’t have Le’Veon Bell, I still think they beat the Browns, though the influx of talent will make this a close game.

Projected Score: Steelers 31 Browns 24

Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts

San Francisco 49ers v Indianapolis Colts

Frank Reich’s debut as an NFL head coach comes at a perfect time as Andrew Luck is back from a shoulder injury that many believed could derail his career. We have yet to see whether that holds true, but Colts quarterbacks (Jacoby Brissett and Scott Tolzien) carried the 6th worst PFF grade in his absence. In 2016, the last time we saw Luck, Colts passers carried the 4th best PFF grade. So Luck makes a huge difference. It’ll be a challenge against the Bengals, who I think will quietly have one of the NFL’s best defenses. It’ll be interesting to see how Andrew Luck is protected against that vaunted defensive line. I think the Bengals come away with this one.

Projected Score: Bengals 24 Colts 17

Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins

Another head coaching debut, Mike Vrabel now has the reins of the Titans and will begin his tenure in South Beach against the Dolphins. A lot has been made of the Titans trying to become the Patriots 2.0 by acquiring all their old players (Logan Ryan, Dion Lewis, Malcolm Butler, even Vrabel himself played 8 years there), but obviously they’re not going to replicate the same results. Marcus Mariota had a weird season last year, as he appeared to struggle with 13 touchdowns and 15 picks, but PFF actually graded him pretty well at 76.2 (for comparison, Kirk Cousins was a 70.0 and Cam Newton was 66.5). I think they get the win against the Dolphins, who are returning Ryan Tannehill but seemingly nothing else.

Projected Score: Titans 27 Dolphins 21

San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings

I probably should abstain from this one like I did Clemson-Texas A&M yesterday because I’m working this one for PFF, but my work doesn’t start until well after the game ends so I think I’m okay to pick this. The Vikings are my pick to win the Super Bowl this year and they go up against Jimmy Garoppolo and his unbeaten record as a starting quarterback. Something has to give. I think I’m going to go with the Vikings, as I think they’re much more well-rounded.

Projected Score: Vikings 31 49ers 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints

Divisional Round - New Orleans Saints v Minnesota Vikings

Jameis Winston’s 3 game suspension for groping an uber driver begins and it’ll be Ryan Fitzpatrick taking on the Saints. I’m not going to lie, this game is going to get ugly. Yes the Bucs have a revamped defensive line, but the Saints have one of the best offensive lines in football and loads of weapons like Michael Thomas and last year’s rookie of the year Alvin Kamara. They’re going to be fine even without Mark Ingram, who is serving a 4-game suspension for PED’s.  Saints win easily.

Projected Score: Saints 38 Buccaneers 14

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

The Texans are getting a LOT of key contributors back from a season that was lost due to injury so I think this will be a fun game as they take on the Patriots. But it’s still the Patriots, even with all the players they lost from last season. So I think they still win, but I think the Texans will make them sweat.

Projected Score: Patriots 28 Texans 24

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants

The Jaguars had a fantastic season on defense last year and basically everyone from that unit is back. The Giants are getting ODell Beckham back and Saquon Barkley will be making his debut but it won’t be enough as Jacksonville’s defense suffocates them and leads them to a victory. It won’t be a bloodbath like their opener against the Texans last year, but it will still be a relatively easy win.

Projected Score: Jaguars 34 Giants 17

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens

It’s going to be a long season for the Bills, especially if they think Nathan Peterman was the best option at quarterback. I get not starting Josh Allen right away, because based on his up-and-down preseason, he could use some time on the bench, but did you have to trade AJ McCarron? I don’t know, man. The defense should be solid but the offense is going to struggle and I think the Ravens will win easily.

Projected Score: Ravens 28 Bills 10

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers v Kansas City Chiefs

The Pat Mahomes era has officially begun and it comes against a very tough Chargers defense. Cornerbacks Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams will have their hands full with Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins running under Pat Mahomes’ passes, but he’s only going to be able to get the ball down there if the offensive line holds up, which is going to be tough with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram coming off the edge. I think the Chargers win a fun back-and-forth affair.

Projected Score: Chargers 31 Chiefs 28

Dallas Cowboys vs Carolina Panthers

It’s the end of an era, as the Cowboys will play a game without both Jason Witten (retired) and Dez Bryant (released) for the first time since 2003. They take on the Panthers, who remain mostly unchanged from the team that made the playoffs last season. I think it’s going to be a low-scoring game, as both teams bring strong defenses to the table, but I think Carolina is going to come out on top.

Projected Score: Panthers 20 Cowboys 17

Washington Redskins vs Arizona Cardinals

Alex Smith debuts for the Redskins after a career year in Kansas City against the Cardinals, who get David Johnson back from a wrist injury. The Cardinals are a tough team to place this season. Sam Bradford is the new quarterback after Carson Palmer retired and while he is an accurate passer and has played well when on the field, his problem is he can’t stay on the field. There’s also a lot of talent on the Arizona defense but they did lose a BIG piece in Tyrann Mathieu this offseason. I think I’m going to go with Washington this week.

Projected Score: Redskins 24 Cardinals 20

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos

This is a Super Bowl XLVIII rematch but both teams could not look more different. The Legion of Boom has pretty much completely dissolved while Denver is starting Case Keenum at quarterback. Seattle still doesn’t have an offensive line so I think I’m going to pick a Von Miller-led defense to take apart this Seahawks offense and lead the Broncos to victory.

Projected Score: Broncos 23 Seahawks 17

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Pittsburgh Steelers v Green Bay Packers

The oldest rivalry in the NFL is renewed with some new faces in Chicago. Matt Nagy is at the helm and he has a brand new toy after the team sent to first rounders to Oakland for Khalil Mack. All of a sudden this Bears defense looks formidable for the first time since 2012. But the Packers are also getting Aaron Rodgers back and their young secondary looks like it could have a similar effect on this year’s team as it did for the Saints last year and I think I’m going to take Green Bay.

Projected Score: Packers 28 Bears 20

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions

The first Monday Night game of the year features a couple debuts. Sam Darnold is the new rookie quarterback getting the start for the Jets while Matt Patricia is making his head coaching debut for the Lions. Darnold looked really sharp in the preseason and was doing things you don’t see 30 year-olds do. The Lions are in a similar position to the Cardinals in that they have some talent with a rookie head coach but I have no idea what to make of them. So I think I’m going to pick the Jets to come away with the win.

Projected Score: Jets 23 Lions 14

Los Angeles Rams vs Oakland Raiders

The other Monday Night game, this is going to be a blowout. I’m picking Oakland to pick first in the 2019 NFL draft as they have absolutely no defense, especially now that they’ve traded Mack. Meanwhile the Rams stocked up on talent in the offseason. This won’t be close, Rams win.

Projected Score: Rams 42 Raiders 14

So that’s it for my picks this week. Like I’ve said many times, I’m going to keep trying to do this every week, but I can’t promise I’ll be able to. Let me know what you think of my picks in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

NFL Season Predictions

So instead of doing a “30 Clubs in 30 Days” thing like I did for baseball, I’m just going to do a generic preview for this upcoming NFL season. While 30 Clubs in 30 Days was a lot of fun for me to do, it ultimately was too time-consuming and not successful enough to be worth the time. But with the NFL season starting on Thursday with Falcons vs Eagles, I figured, what the Hell, let’s get this preview down now. So without further ado, here are my predictions for this upcoming season.

Projected Standings

AFC East

NFL: AUG 24 Preseason - Patriots at Panthers

1. New England Patriots (13-3)

2. Miami Dolphins (8-8)

3. New York Jets (6-10)

4. Buffalo Bills (4-12)

AFC North

Tennessee Titans v Pittsburgh Steelers

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

2. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

3. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)

4. Cleveland Browns (3-13)

AFC South

Atlanta Falcons v Jacksonville Jaguars

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)

2. Houston Texans (8-8)

3. Tennessee Titans (8-8)

4. Indianapolis Colts (5-11)

AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers v San Francisco 49ers

1. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)

2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

3. Denver Broncos (6-10)

4. Oakland Raiders (3-13)

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles v Cleveland Browns

1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)

2. New York Giants (7-9)

3. Washington Redskins (6-10)

4. Dallas Cowboys (5-11)

NFC North

Seattle Seahawks v Minnesota Vikings

1. Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

2. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

3. Chicago Bears (7-9)

4. Detroit Lions (6-10)

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons v Jacksonville Jaguars

1. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

2. New Orleans Saints (10-6)

3. Carolina Panthers (8-8)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11)

NFC West

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1. Los Angeles Rams (12-4)

2. San Francisco 49ers (8-8)

3. Seattle Seahawks (7-9)

4. Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

Playoffs

AFC

1. New England Patriots (first round bye, home field advantage)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (first round bye)

3. Los Angeles Chargers

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

5. Kansas City Chiefs

6. Baltimore Ravens

NFC

1. Philadelphia Eagles (first round bye, home field advantage)

2. Los Angeles Rams (first round bye)

3. Minnesota Vikings

4. Atlanta Falcons

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card Round:

3 Chargers over 6 Ravens

4 Jaguars over 5 Chiefs

3 Vikings over 6 Saints

5 Packers over 4 Falcons

Divisional Round:

4 Jaguars over 1 Patriots

3 Chargers over 2 Steelers

1 Eagles over 5 Packers

3 Vikings over 2 Rams

Conference Championship:

4 Jaguars over 3 Chargers

3 Vikings over 1 Eagles

Super Bowl LIII:

Divisional Round - New Orleans Saints v Minnesota Vikings

Vikings over Jaguars

So you don’t have to watch the NFL season anymore, I’m picking the Vikings to defeat the Jaguars in Super Bowl LIII. It’ll be a first for both teams: the Vikings’ first Super Bowl victory and the Jags’ first Super Bowl appearance. I have the Patriots getting upset in the Divisional Round for a couple reasons. Number 1 is that I feel like there’s just something not right about this year’s team. I’m not sure what it is, but the team just feels a bit thinner than usual. They’ll definitely win the AFC East again because it’s still Belichick and Brady, but after those two, there are a lot of question marks. I think the Chargers will have a breakthrough year by riding their defense (so long as they can stay relatively healthy). The offense will be fine, but the Chargers are going to be one of the more dominant defensive teams in the NFL this season, perhaps this year’s version of the Jaguars. Speaking of the Jaguars, I think they pull off the upset over the Patriots by doing the exact opposite of what they did in last year’s AFC Championship Game. Instead of playing not to lose, they go for the jugular and stomp on New England’s depleted receiving corps, leaving Tom Brady to have to continuously check down to James White, who keeps getting taken to task by Telvin Smith and Myles Jack. On the NFC side, I think the Rams could be a juggernaut this season. They didn’t lose anyone too significant and they reloaded on defense while returning all the important weapons on offense and adding Brandin Cooks. The Eagles I think will still be really good, but I don’t think Nick Foles will play as well in his first few games as the starter as he did in the playoffs last year. They’ll win the NFC East with ease, as the other 3 teams are hurting at the moment. The Vikings might be the most all-around sound team on paper heading into this season and that’s why I’m picking them as Super Bowl champions this year.

As for the bad teams, I still think the Browns will be near the cellar, mainly due to Hue Jackson. I have not been impressed by his coaching techniques watching Hard Knocks, as I think he’s way too soft to be a head coach. His tactics work as a positional coach, but to be the head guy, you need to have more of Todd Haley and Gregg Williams’ fire. Why is Bill Belichick so great? It’s because he doesn’t have a soul. The minute your skills start to deteriorate, you’re out the door. Jackson? It seems like he just wants to be friends with everyone on the team. I also think the Raiders are going to suck this year, but that’s not really news. Jon Gruden hasn’t been a coach in a decade and the game’s changed a lot since his last days with the Buccaneers. Now he doesn’t have a defense with the Khalil Mack trade and his offense is comprised of a bunch of old guys, Derek Carr, and a drop-happy Amari Cooper. I think they’ll end up picking first in April.

On to the awards.

NFL MVP:

Wild Card Round - Atlanta Falcons v Los Angeles Rams

Todd Gurley-RB-Los Angeles Rams

Offensive Player of the Year:

Divisional Round - Jacksonville Jaguars v Pittsburgh Steelers

Antonio Brown-WR-Pittsburgh Steelers

Defensive Player of the Year:

AFC Championship - Jacksonville Jaguars v New England Patriots

Jalen Ramsey-CB-Jacksonville Jaguars

Offensive Rookie of the Year:

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Saquon Barkley-RB-New York Giants

Defensive Rookie of the Year:

NFL: AUG 24 Preseason - Packers at Raiders

Josh Jackson-CB-Green Bay Packers

Coach of the Year:

Washington Redskins v Los Angeles Chargers

Anthony Lynn-Los Angeles Chargers

Comeback Player of the Year:

Arizona Cardinals v Detroit Lions

David Johnson-RB-Arizona Cardinals

Breakout Player of the Year:

Miami Dolphins v Carolina Panthers

Kenyan Drake-RB-Miami Dolphins

So yeah, that’s what’s going to happen this season. If you have any questions about this upcoming year, let me know in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

Injury News in Baseball

So there have been several injuries this season of note and while it doesn’t really FEEL like it’s a lot of guys going down, the talent of the players who have gotten hurt in recent weeks has been what is more of the story. Here are some guys who have gone down in the last few weeks and what their timetable is for return to form.

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-Shohei Ohtani, the two-way Japanese phenom for the Angels, has a partially torn UCL, which almost always requires Tommy John surgery, which would end his 2018 season and possibly his 2019 season as well. The Angels are holding out hope that it doesn’t come to Tommy John and they are even considering continuing to use him as a DH while he recovers from the surgery. That sounds like a REALLY bad idea. While I get that Anaheim might feel a little desperate since they have a legitimately good team this year that is contending for a playoff spot in a VERY tough AL West, you have to learn from the mistake the Washington Redskins made with Robert Griffin III in 2013. RG3 was rushed back from a torn ACL in the postseason to play week 1 and all of his elusiveness was sapped away and his flaws as a passer were amplified, thus destroying his once promising career. You could be facing a similar situation with Ohtani. Ohtani has been very successful in his first couple months in the States, slashing .289/.372/.535 with 6 homers and 20 RBI in 43 games as a hitter and carries a 4-1 record with a 3.10 ERA while striking out over 11 batters per 9 innings as a pitcher, both very good performances. There hasn’t been a player who was both a high-caliber pitcher and hitter since Babe Ruth. Don’t fuck this up, Anaheim. Let him recover. You risk destroying this man’s career by rushing him back before he’s ready. UCL’s are nothing to screw around with, swinging a bat can be just as damaging as throwing a baseball and since Ohtani bats lefty, it will be his right (throwing) arm that does the bulk of the swing and therefore takes the brunt of the pressure. Just bite the bullet and try and make a move at the deadline to compensate for the loss. I hear the Mets may make Jacob deGrom available. If you rush Ohtani back before he’s ready, you could risk an RG3 situation in which a phenomenal talent gets destroyed because you weren’t patient enough to let him recover. Do the right thing, Angels.

-Tigers first baseman and 2-time AL MVP Miguel Cabrera is out for the remainder of the 2018 season after undergoing bicep surgery, which upsets me for a number of reasons, the main of which being that Miggy is one of my favorite players in baseball even as his skills start to decline with age. However this could be a blessing in disguise for Detroit. Cabrera was slashing .301/.394/.451 in 37 games played (he had another DL stint earlier this season) with 3 home runs and 22 RBI. While the power numbers aren’t what we’re used to from the future Hall of Famer, he was still a productive hitter in this lineup. The Tigers are sitting in third place in the AL Central at 31-37 as I write this and aren’t nearly bad enough to be in serious contention for another high draft spot. If you’re going to rebuild, you have to be all-in and Miggy hitting well does not help a rebuild. They landed Auburn ace Casey Mize with the top pick in this year’s MLB Draft and he was one of the few prospects I felt had superstar potential. If they hope to land a talent like that again, they really need to hit the tank button. While it does suck to lose an impactful hitter like Miguel Cabrera, it can be potentially beneficial for the future of this franchise as they stockpile high draft picks.

-While Mookie Betts did return from the DL after missing 14 games due to a hip injury, the Red Sox superstar hasn’t looked quite at 100% in his first couple games back and I think that the team could afford to give him some more rest every now and then as he attempts to return to the form that was dominating baseball for the first two months of the season. Despite the recent DL stint, Mookie has garnered the most votes in the first All Star ballot update by slashing .354/.431/.735 and hitting 17 home runs and driving in 37 RBI while continuing to play the best right field in baseball. However in his absence, the Red Sox went a decent 8-6, showing that the team can win without their superstar. They still have guys like the deadly JD Martinez and the suddenly red-hot Andrew Benintendi, so I think giving Mookie more frequent breathers to make sure he gets to 100% would be most beneficial to this team’s long-term goals.

-Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka injured his hammy running the bases and had to hit the DL and I’m sorry, but his happens far too often when American League pitchers have to hit in National League stadiums. Yankees fans should be especially weary of this after what happened to Chien-Ming Wang a decade ago. Wang was absolutely dominant for the pinstripes but after hurting himself running the bases in Houston, he was never the same and it destroyed his career. If ever there was a reason to install the DH throughout Major League Baseball, this would be a big one. Pitchers aren’t focused at all on their hitting (unless they are Shohei Ohtani) and the AL ones only ever have to hit on the rare occasion they pitch in an NL ballpark, which is maybe two or three times a season for each starter. Even then they don’t expect to get on base so when they do they’re totally unprepared to actually run bases, which is an important part of the game if you hadn’t noticed so they can’t exactly dog it out there. This leads to leg injuries like the one suffered by Tanaka. I don’t know, man, I mean what other professional sport are you going to find that has such different rules depending on what league/conference they’re in? I get the tradition thing, really, I do. But MLB has already installed video replay systems to overturn calls, why can’t they just make the DH rule universal? I enjoy AL baseball more than NL baseball simply for the fact that I don’t have to watch these pitchers half-ass their at bats because they know they’re trash at the plate anyway and nobody expects them to get a hit.

That’s going to do it for this injury update, let me know what you think of the recent trends in injuries in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

2018 NFL Draft: Full Recap

This is the last I’ll post of the 2018 NFL Draft, which is one of my favorite sporting events of the year and it never ceases to disappoint. With all 256 picks made, I’ve gotten a chance to scour them all and decide what I think of each team’s class, which players got screwed, which players god overdrafted, etc., etc. So let’s get to the recap.

Best Draft Class: Green Bay Packers

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The Packers had the most picks (12) going into this Draft and they made very good use of them. This class is getting bonus points for the wheeling and dealing they did. First, they acquired the Saints’ 2019 first round pick to move down, then they gave up one of their third rounders to move back up and get a cornerback in Louisville’s Jaire Alexander. Then they doubled down on corner in round 2 and got a first round talent Iowa’s Josh Jackson, who led the nation in picks last season. The secondary was such a huge need for the Packers that I don’t mind that they hit the same position multiple times, especially considering both players they got were first round-caliber prospects. Aside from Haha Clinton-Dix, that unit is garbage. I would have liked to have seen them get another safety, but if I’m a Packers fan, I’m more than happy with the corners they got. The Packers also got great value for their wide receivers in an effort to find a replacement for Jordy Nelson as they landed Missouri’s J’Mon Moore in the 4th and Notre Dame’s Equanimeous St. Brown in the 6th. Here’s every pick the Packers made.

18. Jaire Alexander-CB-Louisville

45. Josh Jackson-CB-Iowa

88. Oren Burks-LB-Vanderbilt

133. J’Mon Moore-WR-Missouri

138. Cole Madison-OG-Washington State

172. JK Scott-P-Alabama

174. Marques Valdes-Scantling-WR-South Florida

207. Equanimeous St. Brown-WR-Notre Dame

232. James Looney-EDGE-California

239. Hunter Bradley-LS-Mississippi State

248. Kendall Donnerson-EDGE-Southeast Missouri State

Honorable Mentions: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Washington Redskins

Worst Draft Class: Oakland Raiders

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Jon Gruden’s first Draft in 10 years didn’t go great in my opinion. First, he traded down to take Kolton Miller. I liked the trade down and I like Miller, but there were far more pressing needs for the Raiders than offensive line and there were some damn good players available. There were a ton of needs on the defensive side of the ball, pretty much every position could have used a pick dedicated to it. When the Raiders took Miller, the following defenders were available: Tremaine Edmunds, Derwin James, Jaire Alexander, Leighton Vander Esch, and Rashaan Evans, all of whom would have started immediately on that defense. Then in the second round they took a defensive tackle named PJ Hall. At first I thought it was a typo and they meant NC State’s BJ Hill and I thought to myself “it’s good they addressed DT, and I like Hill, though I think this is a little rich for him.” Turns out it wasn’t a typo and they drafted some guy named PJ Hall from Sam Houston State, a player I had never heard of. They traded up for another tackle in the third, this time North Carolina A&T’s Brandon Parker, a guy I think I heard of in passing but never paid much attention to. I don’t know why they needed to trade up for a tackle from NC A&T of all places, but what do I know, I’m a blogger who lives in his parents’ basement. They took Arden Key in the third round, which I thought was a good value, but he’s a guy that has struggled with drug abuse and has failed to maximize his potential and I’m not so sure the Raiders would be the best place for him, especially with the eventual move to Las Vegas. They get bonus points for landing Maurice Hurst in the 5th round, though, so that keeps this Draft from being an utter shit show. There’s talent in this class, don’t get me wrong, and I think some of the guys taken later in this class could wind up being steals, but I thought the value of a lot of these picks, especially given who else at their positions were available, was pretty poor. I can’t in good faith give this class a good grade out of the gates. Here’s the rest of the class.

15. Kolton Miller-OT-UCLA

57. PJ Hall-DL-Sam Houston State

65. Brandon Parker-OT-North Carolina A&T

87. Arden Key-EDGE-LSU

110. Nick Nelson-CB-Wisconsin

140. Maurice Hurst-DL-Michigan

173. Johnny Townsend-P-Florida

216. Azeem Victor-LB-Washington

228. Marcell Ateman-WR-Oklahoma State

Honorable Mention: San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, New York Jets

Best Bargain: Maurice Hurst-DL-Michigan-Oakland Raiders (140th Overall)

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If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times during this draft process, but Hurst fell in this draft due to being diagnosed with a heart condition at the Combine. I expected him to fall out of the first round, but I didn’t expect him to fall all the way to the 5th. Oakland got a tremendous value with this pick. I at one point had Hurst as the 12th best player on my Big Board. His reaction to the snap is basically perfect. As soon as the center even flinches his wrist, Hurst is off. The only knocks against Hurst for me was that he was a bit undersized (which didn’t bother me so much because Aaron Donald is considered undersized) and I felt that he would often be so consumed with the guy who is trying to block him that he’s not looking in the backfield to see where the play is going. But that’s something that’s easily coachable. The Raiders got a goddamn steal with this kid, which significantly helps what was otherwise a weak class.

Honorable Mentions: Bo Scarbrough-RB-Alabama-Dallas Cowboys (236th Overall), Shaquem Griffin-LB-Central Florida-Seattle Seahawks (141st Overall), Deshon Elliott-S-Texas-Baltimore Ravens (190th Overall), Josh Sweat-EDGE-Florida State-Philadelphia Eagles (130th Overall), Tyrell Crosby-OT-Oregon-Detroit Lions (153rd Overall)

Biggest Reach: Terrell Edmunds-S-Virginia Tech-Pittsburgh Steelers (28th Overall)

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I had 8 safeties rated ahead of Terrell Edmunds, including one that went undrafted (Quin Blanding). Yet the Steelers still made him their first round pick, 28th overall. In fact, Edmunds was so surprised he was taken by the Steelers, he was in the bathroom when they called him. He had been sitting in the green room with his brother Tremaine, who was taken 12 picks earlier by the Bills and despite not technically having been invited to the green room, he still got to hold his jersey with the commissioner and Ryan Shazier because they had the Edmunds Steelers jersey lying around for his brother. It made for a nice story, but the Steelers could’ve gotten this guy in the third, maybe even the fourth round.

Honorable Mention: PJ Hall-DL-Sam Houston State-Oakland Raiders (57th Overall), Brandon Parker-OT-North Carolina A&T-Oakland Raiders (65th Overall), Joseph Noteboom-OT-TCU-Los Angeles Rams (89th Overall)

Notable Undrafted Free Agents and Where They’ve Signed

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Every year there are extremely talented players that get overlooked. Here are just a few.

Simmie Cobbs Jr-WR-Indiana-Washington Redskins

JT Barrett-QB-Ohio State-Indianapolis Colts

Josh Adams-RB-Notre Dame-Philadelphia Eagles

Tegray Scales-LB-Indiana-Los Angeles Rams

Akrum Wadley-RB-Iowa-Tennessee Titans

Allen Lazard-WR-Iowa State-Jacksonville Jaguars

Chase Litton-QB-Marshall-Kansas City Chiefs

Nic Shimonek-QB-Texas Tech-Los Angeles Chargers

Kurt Benkert-QB-Virginia-Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Allen-QB-Houston-Carolina Panthers

Kevin Toliver-CB-LSU-Chicago Bears

Jeff Holland-LB-Auburn-Denver Broncos

Davin Bellamy-EDGE-Georgia-Houston Texans

Riley Ferguson-QB-Memphis-Miami Dolphins

Hercules Mata’afa-DL-Washington State-Minnesota Vikings

Tarvarus McFadden-CB-Florida State-San Francisco 49ers

Holton Hill-CB-Texas-Minnesota Vikings

And those are just the big names that didn’t hear their name called. There were hundreds of others. But as I said in yesterday’s blog, just because you weren’t drafted doesn’t mean your NFL dream is dead. Not by a long shot.

The Quarterbacks That Were Taken

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Football’s most important position is definitely quarterback and there was no shortage of signal callers in this year’s class. Here’s every QB that was selected.

1. Baker Mayfield-Oklahoma-Cleveland Browns

3. Sam Darnold-USC-New York Jets

7. Josh Allen-Wyoming-Buffalo Bills

10. Josh Rosen-UCLA-Arizona Cardinals

32. Lamar Jackson-Louisville-Baltimore Ravens

76. Mason Rudolph-Oklahoma State-Pittsburgh Steelers

108. Kyle Lauletta-Richmond-New York Giants

171. Mike White-Western Kentucky-Dallas Cowboys

199. Luke Falk-Washington State-Tennessee Titans

203. Tanner Lee-Nebraska-Jacksonville Jaguars

219. Danny Etling-LSU-New England Patriots

220. Alex McGough-FIU-Seattle Seahawks

249. Logan Woodside-Toledo-Cincinnati Bengals

Of the 13 quarterbacks, all 10 from my rankings ended up getting drafted, a first for me (last year I had 9 out of 10, UPenn’s Alek Torgersen being the lone undrafted quarterback). Of the 3 that weren’t ranked, Lee, Etling, and McGough, none of them probably would’ve cracked my “first 5 out.” Lee is the most talented of the three but his play at Nebraska was far below his talent. I’ve seen Alex McGough (pronounced “Mah-GOO”) play a couple times, since Indiana and FIU have a home-and-home series and I’ve gotta say, I don’t know what Seattle sees in him. He just looked lost every time I watched him play (which, to be fair, was only against IU, which has a pretty solid defense). The Patriots and Saints were two teams I figured would be going after a quarterback in the middle rounds as hard as anybody, but the Saints didn’t take any and the Patriots took a guy that had defenders stacking the box to stop the run because they knew he wasn’t a threat. Perhaps both teams weren’t high on this year’s class and elected to try and find their Hall of Fame quarterbacks’ successors in next year’s Draft.

Most Confusing Draft Day Decision

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The Draft Day decision that confused me more than any other was the Cowboys not electing to take a wide receiver until the third round, and even then they took a pretty raw Michael Gallup out of Colorado State. They did trade a 6th rounder to the Rams for Tavon Austin, but Austin hasn’t lived up to his 8th Overall pick billing and has been a guy that you just get creative with rather than a real threat to the defense. They also didn’t address pass rusher until the 4th round with another raw player in Kansas’ Dorance Armstrong Jr. I know they took Taco Charlton in the first round last year but pass rusher is still a big need, especially if they can’t sign DeMarcus Lawrence long-term. Overall I thought the talent the Cowboys got in the Draft was good, I just think they had their positional priorities out of whack a bit.

Secretly Genius Draft Day Decision

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A move that didn’t make sense to me at first but has really grown on me is Bill Belichick’s decision to take Georgia runningback Sony Michel with the 31st pick. I was a little taken aback by the decision at first since the Patriots had a very crowded runningback room, but then I thought some more about it. Only one of Jeremy Hill and Mike Gillislee is going to remain on the roster as the goalline power back. James White is just the pass catcher who never gets carries. Rex Burkhead is a wildcard who is only back on a 2-year deal. The Patriots were at their best last season when Dion Lewis was torching defenses in the second half with his all-around style of play. Michel is a very similar style of player and he was the most explosive player on Georgia’s offense that was a quarter away from a National Championship. There are people who are going to complain that the Patriots should’ve addressed the defense that got torched in the Super Bowl to which I say this: they kind of already did. The Patriots’ defense was riddled with injuries last year, particularly to Dont’a Hightower and 2017’s top Draft choice Derek Rivers (who was having a nice training camp before tearing his ACL). They’ll be getting those guys back and healthy They also signed Adrian Clayborn and traded for Jason McCourty to fill the holes for the meantime while also stockpiling on picks for next year’s Draft. The defense looks to be fine and in a win-now mode while the plethora of picks for next year’s class will likely be used to re-stock as this group gets older. So no surprise, but to me, the most genius Draft Day decision comes from the mind of Bill Belichick.

Some Prospects to Keep an Eye Out For in 2019

For scouting departments, when Mr. Irrelevant is announced, they get to work on next year’s class. Here are some guys that I think will go high next year.

Ed Oliver-DL-Houston

Nick Bosa-EDGE-Ohio State

Rashan Gary-DL-Michigan

Drew Lock-QB-Missouri

Justin Herbert-QB-Oregon

AJ Brown-WR-Ole Miss

Dexter Lawrence-DL-Clemson

Christian Wilkins-DL-Clemson

Clellin Ferrell-EDGE-Clemson

Austin Bryant-EDGE-Clemson

Just a few guys to look out for next college football season (you’ll notice a lot of defensive linemen. Next year’s class might be the best ever class for that position group).

And that’s a wrap on the 2018 NFL Draft. Let me know what you thought of it in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

 

NFL Draft: Day 3

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It’s done! It’s over! For 256 kids, their dreams came true. For hundreds of others, disappointment. But now they’ve all got to get to work because the hard part’s just beginning. Here are some thoughts from Day 3 of the Draft.

-The great story just gets better. Shaquem Griffin was drafted by the Seahawks 141st overall. You probably already know his story, he had to get his hand amputated after a birth defect. The pain in that hand was so bad that he tried to take a knife and cut off his deformed fingers in the middle of the night when he was just 4 years old. His mother was able to stop him before he could do it but it was at that moment she called the hospital to get it fully amputated. He had a twin Shaquill who would turn down scholarship offers because his brother wasn’t offered as well. Eventually UCF offered both and they both went and played well. Then Shaquill got drafted by the Seahawks in last year’s draft. Now his brother Shaquem joins him in Seattle. I was so impressed when I watched Shaquem’s tape that I went and put him on my Big Board even though I knew he’d be a Day 3 pick. That’s how good I felt he was. Just a tremendous story that my words can’t really do justice. I’ll be rooting for the kid at the next level.

-The Patriots had an interesting Day 3. They traded out of the 4th round twice to the point where I got so frustrated I said “make a fucking pick” out loud. They eventually did make a pick, and I was dismayed they took a Purdue linebacker in Ja’whaun Bentely. Nothing against Bentley, he’s a big dude who I think could be really valuable against the run. He just had the misfortune of being a Boilermaker. Some other notable players the Patriots took are Arizona State linebacker Christian Sam, who was reportedly very popular among a group of teams for the later rounds, Miami (FL) wide receiver Braxton Berrios (a 5’8 white guy who is a good route runner, shocker), and LSU quarterback Danny Etling (he won’t be Brady’s heir, this is more them drafting the heir’s backup). Etling is a former Purdue quarterback who transferred to LSU and he struggled mightily. I’m actually a little surprised he was drafted at all, but that’s what the Patriots do, take the guys that other people don’t value nearly as much. Etling is probably going to be a two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback given Bill Belichick’s track record.

-Mr. Irrelevant was SMU wide receiver Trey Quinn by the Washington Redskins. Quinn’s also a baseball guy, as he threw a no hitter in the Little League World Series. Quinn was a teammate of new Broncos receiver Courtland Sutton’s and actually had better stats than Sutton, as he caught 114 balls for 1236 yards and 13 touchdowns. I actually thought he was a 5th round talent. Probably the best Mr. Irrelevant since Wake Forest kicker Ryan Succop, who is still kicking in the NFL.

-I’m going to be that guy. I hate the Eagles’ selection of Jordan Mailata 233rd overall. But Jim, you ask, why do you give a shit about the 233rd overall pick? Because Mailata never played a down of football in his life. He’s an Australian rugby player. When do those ever work out? My point is there are so many guys who have played football their whole lives for this moment then some rugby player gets to get picked in the Draft while they have to beg teams to put them on their roster. I just hate that. Yes Mailata is a monster of a human being but Simmie Cobbs of Indiana made the 4th overall pick Denzel Ward look like a Pee Wee player and he didn’t get selected. Plus, how do you tell players who were taken after him “you were valued less as a football player than a guy who has never played football before.” I could go on but I won’t.

-Former Washington State quarterback Luke Falk is reportedly obsessed with Tom Brady. He follows the TB12 method to a T, he gets upset when the Patriots lose (he got particularly harassed by teammates after the Super Bowl LII loss), and he basically worships Brady like a god. Guess where Falk got drafted. No he was not taken by the Patriots, he was taken by the Titans. However, Falk was drafted 199th overall, just like Brady was. Nothing else to say about that I just thought that was hilarious.

-The biggest steal of the draft has to be the Raiders taking former Michigan defensive tackle Maurice Hurst 140th overall. Hurst was a first round talent and I had him as my #1 interior defensive lineman until he was diagnosed with a heart condition at the Combine. He has since been cleared by doctors but teams still took him off their boards. If Hurst is able to prove he is healthy, this pick is going to be a steal and a half.

-I talked about how I really liked Texas safety Deshon Elliott even though other teams might not have liked him so much. Well he was selected in the sixth round, 190th overall by the Ravens. He was the last player on my Big Board to be selected but I kind of figured that would happen. I still think he’s going to be a damn good player, though.

-A reminder to the players who weren’t drafted today, here’s a list of guys who were also undrafted:

Kurt Warner

Wes Welker

Chris Harris Jr

Drew Pearson

Brian Waters

Jason Peters

Priest Holmes

James Harrison

Rod Smith

Joe Jacoby

Antonio Gates

Tony Romo

John Randle

Emmitt Thomas

Willie Brown

Warren Moon

Dick “Night Train” Lane

I could go on but I think you get the picture. Just because you weren’t drafted doesn’t mean it’s over. In fact, a lot of guys who were drafted will never play an NFL game. Just keep your head up and use this as motivation to prove everybody wrong. That’s going to do it for today’s blog. I’ll have a full Draft recap tomorrow. Let me know what you thought of Day 3 of the Draft in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

NFL Draft: Day 2

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I’m not going to go pick-by-pick with this. That would be absolutely insane. It’s more going to be in the format of General Sports but it’s all going to pertain to what happened with Day 2 of the NFL Draft. So let’s get to it.

-Before the Draft even started, we got news that Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten is retiring and will be joining the broadcast booth. The timing seems a bit unfortunate for the Cowboys as they likely had to dramatically change their draft plans now that tight end has become a need. However there was some insult to injury with what happened. The division-rival Eagles traded up in front of them and took South Dakota State’s Dallas Goedert and former Eagles kicker David Akers, who announced the pick, had a little fun with the Dallas crowd.

So not only do the Cowboys not get their tight end (who happens to be named “Dallas”) but they get the pick stolen right out from under them by their division rivals and then get put in a body bag by a retired kicker. Rough night. The Cowboys ended up taking Texas tackle Connor Williams, who was my top-rated tackle in this class. Some people think he could play guard and there’s an opening at left guard on this offensive line.

-Speaking of pick announcements, this was pretty awesome.

I’m not crying, I’ve just got something in my eye. You’re crying. Pussy. *sniff* Pancho Billa got to announce the pick of Stanford defensive tackle Harrison Phillips, who appears to be the heir to Kyle Williams and quite frankly, I was shocked he was still there. I had him pegged as an early second rounder and he nearly lasted all the way to the 4th.

-The Patriots traded the 95th pick in the Draft for 49ers tackle Trent Brown, an absolute mammoth of a human being at 6’8 360, though his weight was an issue with the 49ers last season as he showed up to camp over 400 pounds. He played really well, though grading out as the 9th best tackle according to Pro Football Focus. This allows the Patriots to push the 23rd overall pick Isaiah Wynn to guard where he’s better suited. Joe Thuney and Shaq Mason are the incumbents but Thuney struggled last season and the selection of Wynn in the first round might suggest that the Patriots are losing confidence in him. As a result of this trade, though, the Patriots only had 1 pick on Day 2 after a bunch of other trades and they ended up with Florida cornerback Duke Dawson. I like him, I think he’s really good in coverage, particularly as a press guy. But he sucks against the run. I watched some film on him against LSU and LSU kept running end-arounds right at him all game and they kept working. However he did a pretty good job in covering DJ Chark and shut down Christian Kirk, both of whom I had as top-5 receivers in this class. He’s probably going to be a nickel or dime corner for the Patriots on passing downs as a rookie.

-The Steelers may have drafted their future franchise quarterback in Mason Rudolph with the 76th overall pick. The Oklahoma State product is pretty raw and his offensive scheme from college translates pretty poorly to the NFL. But he has a lot of arm talent and a big frame that is pretty similar to current Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who has made it clear his days in the league are numbered, as he almost retired this season. It appears that the Steelers had been targeting Rudolph all along because they also selected his top target in James Washington. The two were a dynamic 1-2 punch with Oklahoma State and the Steelers hope they can translate that chemistry to the next level.

-Former LSU runningback Derrius Guice fell pretty hard in the Draft. In my mock, I projected that the Buccaneers would trade back into the first round with the Patriots to take him. Well that didn’t happen, the Pats took Georgia runningback Sony Michel, then the Buccaneers stayed put in the second round and took USC runningback Ronald Jones II. Apparently, as Mike Mayock reported while Guice was in his slide, there’s an investigation going on with Guice that could potentially be “embarrassing” for the team that drafts him. As to what that exactly is, we’re unsure, but the Redskins took a chance on him at 59 so perhaps they feel comfortable that he’s going to be cleared.

-Speaking of falling in the Draft, every year we see guys take a tumble simply because that’s the way the board falls. There’s no real reason behind it, whether it be character concerns, injury problems, or just something showing up on tape. But every year, there’s a guy who falls out of nowhere. This year, that player was Alabama safety Ronnie Harrison. He doesn’t have any character concerns, no injury red flags, and he’s okay in coverage but we already knew that and we know he’s better against the run. I really like this guy and he’s an enforcer-type safety who can deliver some nasty hits. He was my 30th overall player on my Big Board and he ended up going 93rd to the Jaguars. As if that defense needed another playmaker. As of right now, this is the steal of the Draft in my opinion.

-Oklahoma tackle Orlando Brown had possibly the worst NFL Combine ever, yet he didn’t fall too far, as the Ravens selected him in the third round, 83rd overall. The analysts noted when he was selected that Brown’s 40 time of 5.65 was the exact same time as his father’s, who passed away in 2011. Another interesting thing to note is that Brown’s father, Orlando Sr, also played for the Ravens and wore #77. That number is currently available on the Ravens roster. Could be something cool to look at.

So with 3 rounds done and the rest of the Draft on Saturday, here’s the remaining players from my Big Board that are still available, ordered by ranking along with possible reason why they fell.

39. Maurice Hurst-DL-Michigan (diagnosed with a heart condition at the Combine that has clearly scared teams away because he’s too good to still be available)

41. Deshon Elliott-S-Texas (I liked him a lot more than other people anyway so I’m not surprised he’s still available. Mark my words he’s going to be a steal)

50. Shaquem Griffin-LB-Central Florida (Has one hand, otherwise he’s basically the perfect linebacker prospect)

And that’s it. I expect all three guys to be taken pretty early in the 4th round on Saturday. Let me know what you thought of Day 2 of the NFL Draft in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

NFL Draft Recap: Round 1

The first round of the 2018 NFL Draft came and went and holy shit was it a doozy. Something to note at the beginning though. When announcing the players in attendance, the PA guy noticeably messed up. He went out of order a couple times (they announce the players alphabetically). He completely forgot Sam Darnold, who had to enter last. He then accidentally skipped Shaquem Griffin and went straight to Derrius Guice, which is why Guice was so late exiting the tunnel, he was probably confused because Griffin was supposed to be ahead of him. Josh Jackson was then announced but he didn’t come out, then the PA announcer finally got to Griffin, who came out, before going back to Jackson, who then came out. A little bit of pre-Draft entertainment. We’ve got 32 picks to sort through so let’s cut the intro short and get into it.

1. Cleveland Browns-Baker Mayfield-QB-Oklahoma (My Big Board Rank: 13)

This started gaining a TON of steam the morning of the Draft. Mayfield’s a great story, he had to walk on twice, first at Texas Tech, then at Oklahoma. He won the Heisman Trophy last season and is now the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. I’m not in love with the Browns’ decision but I think Mayfield is a better passer than people might give him credit for. Sitting behind Tyrod Taylor will be helpful for him because he really needs it. Also, you gotta respect this effort.

Also, fun fact, this is the first time since I started doing mock drafts in 2008 that I got the #1 overall pick wrong.

2. New York Giants-Saquon Barkley-RB-Penn State (1)

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Not a surprise here. Saquon Barkley is basically the perfect back and the Giants lack a running game. He’ll be a star in New York. The Giants still need some offensive line help but a guy like Barkley can help alleviate some of those pains. The Giants are able to land the best player in the draft and add another superstar to their roster.

3. New York Jets (from Indianapolis Colts)-Sam Darnold-QB-USC (9)

Great pick here by the Jets. Darnold is the safest quarterback in the draft and even if he does need a year, the Jets brought back Josh McCown and signed Teddy Bridgewater to start over him. I have an issue with his throwing motion but other than that I think Darnold is a very quality quarterback. He did turn the ball over a lot but the talent around him was VERY subpar. The talent with the Jets isn’t great either so they’re going to need to get him some weapons very soon if he’s going to be successful.

4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston Texans)-Denzel Ward-CB-Ohio State (4)

Denzel Ward comes as a bit of a surprise, but they need corners. Ward’s definitely the best corner in this draft and he’ll likely be the Browns’ #1 corner from Day 1. He doesn’t have to go very far, having come from Ohio State. Ward may have benefited from Marshon Lattimore’s tremendous season last year with the Saints. I think he has the chance to be a Hell of a corner in Cleveland.

5. Denver Broncos-Bradley Chubb-EDGE-North Carolina State (2)

A little surprising given the fact that two quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen, were both still available. But damn does this create a terrifying pass rush duo in Denver with Chubb and Von Miller. Denver is starting to rebuild their defense and getting a great pass rush is the easiest way to do it. Getting pressure on the quarterback makes life easier for everyone behind you and now with this pass rush duo, the Broncos look to be in great shape.

6. Indianapolis Colts (from New York Jets)-Quenton Nelson-OG-Notre Dame (5)

This pick was clearly made with protecting Andrew Luck in mind. Nelson’s as good a guard prospect as I’ve seen in a looooooong time. He’s basically a perfect run blocker. On pass blocking, I’ve seen him get confused by some complex blitz packages, but usually he’s excellent.

7. TRADE!!! Buffalo Bills (from Tampa Bay Buccaneers)-Josh Allen-QB-Wyoming (16)

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Shocker, the Bills traded into the top 10 to get their quarterback. According to Adam Schefter, the Broncos and Bills had a deal in place but when Chubb fell the Broncos backed out. The Buccaneers receive the 12th pick and both of Buffalo’s second round picks. The Bills take Josh Allen, who fell as a result of some pretty tough tweets he sent out in high school, which included the word “faggot,” talking about how he was against gay marriage, saying “if it ain’t white it ain’t right,” and saying he loves “touching kids’ peeters.” Now a lot of the questionable tweets were movie quotes or song lyrics but they’re still pretty questionable. Obviously he was an idiot in high school and I’m sure he’s grown since then. From a talent standpoint, Allen is about as physically gifted as they come, but he’s raw as Hell. He needs to sit at least a year before he’s ready. AJ McCarron should start at first and then they work their way to Allen.

8. Chicago Bears-Roquan Smith-LB-Georgia (10)

When the Bears are good, they have imposing linebackers. From Dick Butkus to Mike Singletary to Brian Urlacher, a great middle linebacker is essential for the Bears. Roquan Smith needs to get tougher against blockers, but his instincts are second to none and his fundamentals are excellent. The Bears have some talent on the defensive line that can take on some blocks for him but they will need to shore it up a little bit in order to maximize his potential.

9. San Francisco 49ers-Mike McGlinchey-OT-Notre Dame (21)

Jimmy Garoppolo faced a ton of pressure in his short period of time as the starter and this pick is meant to make sure he doesn’t have to rush his throws like he did. McGlinchey is probably better on the right side, but the value of a right tackle has been skyrocketing of late. I thought this was a bit of a reach but given that this is a poor tackle class, if you need a tackle you have to get the very best as soon as you can. You can’t risk your guy falling and then getting the next best guy later in this situation.

10. TRADE!!! Arizona Cardinals (from Oakland Raiders)-Josh Rosen-QB-UCLA (8)

The Cardinals trade up with the Raiders, right ahead of the Dolphins who were rumored to be interested in drafting a quarterback. The Raiders get the 15th pick, a 3rd rounder, and a 5th rounder. Given how desperate the Cardinals reportedly were to take one, this doesn’t come as a surprise that they moved up to 10 from 15. Rosen was my number 1 quarterback but he’s the 4th taken in the top 10 (first time that’s ever happened). I think Rosen could start right away but he doesn’t have to with Sam Bradford in town. There are concerns with Rosen’s injury history and his commitment to football, but the tape is easily the best of any quarterback in this class.

11. Miami Dolphins-Minkah Fitzpatrick-S-Alabama (3)

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The Dolphins missed out on a quarterback thanks to the Cardinals jumping up ahead of them, but they do end up with the very talented Minkah Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick is at his best roaming the deep middle of the field but he’s also very capable of playing outside and slot corner and I’ve even seen him wreak some havoc at the line of scrimmage. Dolphins defensive coordinator Matt Burke can get really creative with this guy.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Buffalo Bills via Cincinnati Bengals)-Vita Vea-DL-Washington (18)

I’m not sure how you’re going to run on the Buccaneers now. With linebackers like Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander now able to run free because Gerald McCoy and Vita Vea are taking up all the blockers? Forget it. Considering the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons all have pretty solid ground games, I can see why they went with the pick. Not the pick I would’ve made with Derwin James available, I felt a secondary player was the bigger need, but it makes a strength even stronger.

13. Washington Redskins-Da’Ron Payne-DL-Alabama (17)

I had Payne ranked right above Vea and I think he’s a more well-rounded guy. He was great in the CFP and he will be reunited with former Alabama line-mate Jonathan Allen with the Redskins. The Redskins ranked last in the NFL against the run so beefing up the interior of their defensive line was a must.

14. TRADE!!! New Orleans Saints (from Green Bay Packers)-Marcus Davenport-EDGE-UTSA (7)

The Saints trade up 13 spots to get Marcus Davenport. They’re sending Green Bay the 27th pick, a fifth rounder, and their first rounder next year to make the selection. This was an interesting decision. Davenport is a crazy athlete, but should they have traded up so high to get a guy as raw as he is? I’m not so sure because they essentially spent two first round picks to get this guy, given that Green Bay will be making their pick next year. I love Davenport, but I’m not in love with the selection by the Saints. Sure they don’t have a great pass rush outside of Cameron Jordan, but again, I thought they gave up too much for one.

15. Oakland Raiders (from Arizona Cardinals)-Kolton Miller-OT-UCLA (22)

I didn’t figure that offensive line was a need for the Raiders, but they go for a raw but extremely talented tackle prospect in Miller. I’m not going to lie, as a Patriots fan, I wanted Miller. I may or may not have cursed out loud when he was announced as the Raiders’ pick. Donald Penn is up there in age so perhaps they took Miller to groom behind Penn. The Raiders also traded the 3rd rounder they acquired to the Steelers for Martavis Bryant, meaning Jon Gruden is trying to build an elite offense in Oakland.

16. TRADE!!! Buffalo Bills (from Baltimore Ravens)-Tremaine Edmunds-LB-Virginia Tech (6)

The Bills acquired a fifth rounder and the 16th pick in exchange for the 22nd pick and a third rounder from the Ravens. The Bills get one of my favorite players in this class in Tremaine Edmunds. He doesn’t turn 20 for another week so he’s about as raw as you’re going to get. But at 6’5 250 pounds with 4.5 speed, you’re not going to find a better physical specimen at the linebacker position. He can play the edge or he can play up the middle and from a speed standpoint, he compares favorably to a lot of receivers in the league.

17. Los Angeles Chargers-Derwin James-S-Florida State (12)

The Chargers have a pretty scary secondary now with the addition of Derwin James. At corner, they have Casey Hayward and Jason Verrett, now at safety they have James and the underrated Jahleel Addae. The Chargers had a pretty good defense already, now they may be looking at a powerhouse.

18. TRADE!!! Green Bay Packers (from Seattle Seahawks)-Jaire Alexander-CB-Louisville (31)

Green Bay is involved in a trade yet again, this time trading up with the Seattle Seahawks for the 18th overall pick in exchange for the 27th pick, a 3rd rounder and a 6th rounder in order to select Jaire Alexander. Alexander is probably the most athletic corner in the Draft after blowing up the Combine. He’s a little small, but his athleticism makes up for it. The Packers were in dire need of corners and Alexander’s not a bad choice here.

19. Dallas Cowboys-Leighton Vander Esch-LB-Boise State (27)

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I’m surprised this pick wasn’t a wide receiver. Vander Esch was a late riser and he’s got the thickest neck I’ve ever seen. He’s a big linebacker and he shores up a group in Dallas that seems to always be battling injuries. Sean Lee is always hurt and Jaylon Smith still isn’t all the way back from his ACL tear in college. There’s still a big need at wide receiver, though, after Dez Bryant’s release. As it stands, Terrance Williams is the #1 receiver. Every receiver was still available when the Cowboys made this pick so they must not be a huge fan of this class.

20. Detroit Lions-Frank Ragnow-C-Arkansas (N/A)

Ragnow is one of the best centers in the nation, though I felt that pass rusher was the biggest need for the Lions. The offensive line is still a big need, though, and Ragnow has the size to play every position on the offensive line and I think he could upgrade every spot for the Lions. Reportedly the Patriots were “all over” him so Matt Patricia may have stolen one from his former club. The Bengals were also reportedly going to take Ragnow 1 pick later so the Lions probably frustrated two teams by picking a center.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (from Buffalo Bills)-Billy Price-C-Ohio State (N/A)

Billy Price might not be quite as good as Ragnow as a center, but he can also play guard, which is another position on the offensive line that the Bengals need. So Marvin Lewis has a lot of options here with Price and will be able to fill whatever need he wants.

22. Tennessee Titans (from Baltimore Ravens via Buffalo Bills through Kansas City Chiefs)-Rashaan Evans-LB-Alabama (23)

The Titans jump ahead of the Patriots and Panthers to take Rashaan Evans This pick has been held by 4(!) different teams but it ends up in Tennessee, who gave up a 4th rounder to move up. I figured the Titans would target this guy when they made the trade. The Patriots were reportedly interested in him and the Titans are in desperate need of a middle linebacker. Evans has had some injury problems but he’s a Nick Saban linebacker, which has proven to be pretty valuable lately, considering Reuben Foster, CJ Mosley, and Dont’a Hightower are the most recent of the bunch.

23. New England Patriots (from Los Angeles Rams)-Isaiah Wynn-OG-Georgia (28)

The Patriots needed a left tackle and that’s what Wynn played at Georgia, however I think he projects better as a guard since he’s a little on the smaller side for a tackle at about 6’2 302 pounds. Dante Scarnecchia is the best offensive line coach in the game, though and he’ll be able to do some good things with Wynn. We’ll have to see how he performs. Besides, if he doesn’t work out at tackle, he can slide into guard where I think he’s much better suited.

24. Carolina Panthers-DJ Moore-WR-Maryland (26)

First wideout off the board. I like Moore, but his film didn’t really wow me. The stats were really good and so were his workouts, but a lot of the routes he ran were tunnel screens. He’s a talented guy, though and a big need for the Panthers.

25. Baltimore Ravens (from Tennessee Titans)-Hayden Hurst-TE-South Carolina

Hayden Hurst is a guy I liked, but didn’t love. He’s 24 years old and will be 25 when the season starts. That late age is mainly because he played minor league baseball for a little bit before returning to school. He was my #3 tight end but there were a lot of analysts who had him as their best at the position. But he is one of the better athletes at the position who you can line up all over the field and is a very good blocker.

26. Atlanta Falcons-Calvin Ridley-WR-Alabama (11)

Wide receiver might not have been the biggest need for the Falcons (that being defensive tackle), but Ridley is my favorite receiver in this class and I think that he will be an absolute stud with Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu also on the field. I would say he’s an upgrade over the departed Taylor Gabriel, for sure.

27. Seattle Seahawks (from Green Bay Packers via New Orleans Saints)-Rashaad Penny-RB-San Diego State (N/A)

Whoah…..uh, Seattle, I know you’re not usually accustomed to making first round picks, but this guy would’ve been there much later. Don’t get me wrong, I like Penny. He’s a bruiser and was the leading rusher in all of college football last season. But Derrius Guice, Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, and Ronald Jones II are still there for runningbacks. Maybe the Seahawks know something about the kid that we don’t.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers-Terrell Edmunds-S-Virginia Tech (N/A)

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It was pretty cool seeing Ryan Shazier walking to make the pick. I was really impressed in the montage video that he was able to do pull-ups as well. He announced the choice of Terrell Edmunds, whose brother Tremaine was selected earlier in the night. It’s the first time ever that two brothers were taken in the first round of the same draft. I thought this was a BIG reach by the Steelers. He was my 9th-rated safety. Guys I had ahead of him who were still available are Justin Reid, Deshon Elliott, Jessie Bates, Jordan Whitehead, and Quin Blanding. But like with the Seahawks pick, maybe the Steelers know something we don’t. I thought Edmunds would be there in the third round, maybe the fourth.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars-Taven Bryan-DL-Florida (40)

The Jaguars bolster a strength of this team on their defensive line. Bryan does a good job of disrupting guys in the backfield and creates plays for other guys on the defense. Defensive line wasn’t a need by any means, as Malik Jackson, Calais Campbell, and Marcell Dareus are already there on the interior defensive line. Good luck getting playing time as a rookie, kid.

30. Minnesota Vikings-Mike Hughes-CB-Central Florida (33)

Hughes had a troubled past in college but is one of the best talents in the class. I figured the Vikings would go corner with Trae Waynes’ contract set to expire at the end of the 2018 season, though I had Josh Jackson and Isaiah Oliver rated ahead of Hughes. He can hit, he can cover, and he can return kicks, but again, the troubled past led me to lower him a bit in my rankings (got in a huge fight at a frat house at UNC, then was accused of rape at Kansas, though those charges were dropped). Given the quality of receivers in the NFC North, getting as many good corners as you can is going to be huge.

31. New England Patriots-Sony Michel-RB-Georgia (N/A)

I’m shocked the Patriots didn’t trade this pick. But they’re able to land Sony Michel, one of the more exciting running backs in college football. Michel is a similar player to Dion Lewis and I think he fits in nicely with the offense. He tore up the CFP running behind fellow Patriots first rounder Isaiah Wynn. My concern here is that is now a VERY crowded running back room with the newly-signed Jeremy Hill, Rex Burkhead, James White, and now Sony Michel, so I’m not so sure getting a running back in the first round was the best route to go. It should be interesting to see what New England has in mind for him.

32. TRADE!!! Baltimore Ravens (from Philadelphia Eagles)-Lamar Jackson-QB-Louisville

The Ravens gave up a couple second rounders, one this year and one next year, to trade back into the first round for the 2016 Heisman Trophy winner. Lamar Jackson will be sitting behind Joe Flacco for at least a year to develop, which is what he needs. Jackson has work to do as a passer, but the athleticism is off the charts. He has Michael Vick-like quickness. It’ll be interesting to see how the Ravens develop not only him, but their gameplan to accommodate him. He’s probably going to sit for a long time a la Aaron Rodgers, and we’ve all seen how that worked out.

Well that was a Hell of a first round. My mock did pretty poorly, but I kind of expected that considering it was such an unpredictable draft that we didn’t even know who the first overall pick was going to be until it was made. The only picks I nailed were Saquon Barkley at 2, Sam Darnold at 3, and Rashaan Evans at 22 (even though I got the team wrong). Here’s a list of my best players available for Day 2, ordered by their ranking on my Big Board:

14. Connor Williams-OT-Texas

15. Christian Kirk-WR-Texas A&M

19. Harold Landry-EDGE-Boston College

20. Josh Jackson-CB-Iowa

24. Isaiah Oliver-CB-Colorado

25. Justin Reid-S-Stanford

29. Dallas Goedert-TE-South Dakota State

30. Ronnie Harrison-S-Alabama

So still plenty of talent still available for Day 2. I won’t get to watch the first half of it since I will be broadcasting a softball game between Indiana and Michigan at 6. So if you’re sick of the Draft, you can turn that on and hear my seductive voice. But that’s going to do it for the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Let me know what you thought of the picks in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

 

Final Mock Draft

We made it, folks. It’s Draft Day! Round 1 starts tonight at 8 and the Cleveland Browns stated that they received no acceptable offers for the top pick, so it looks like they’re going to make the selection, not that there was a ton of doubt about it. As promised, here is my final mock draft of the year and my official guesses at what’s going to happen. The Draft is always damn near impossible to project. The best my mocks have ever done was 10 out of 32 correct picks in 2012. The worst was 3 the following year (that one got published in my high school’s newspaper). Last year I got 5, which is typically what I’m around. I’m going to do things a little differently with this mock than what I typically do with my mock drafts. I’m going to predict what I think will actually happen rather than what I would do if I were making the picks. Since I’m going to be predicting what I think will happen, I’m going to break one of my cardinal rules for mocks: I’m going to project trades. That’s where I’m probably going to get in trouble with the picks so at the end of the blog I’m going to link to the mock draft I made on NFL.com’s Predict the Pick with my picks on what I would do, which does not project trades so that you get both. As for the mock itself, these decisions are going to be based on not only what I think the team is going to do, but also based on what I’m hearing. The picks also may not necessarily reflect my rankings, either, since each team has rankings of their own. So with that, let’s get to the mock.

1. Cleveland Browns-Josh Allen-QB-Wyoming

during the first half of a game on December 21, 2016 in San Diego, California.

Not what I would do by any means, but I am hearing that the Browns have narrowed the top pick down to Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield. Since Mayfield has been compared to Johnny Manziel, I think there’s a fear in the front office about repeating their mistake from 4 years ago and they go with Allen. With Tyrod Taylor in place, Allen won’t have to start right away and can sit and develop for a year, which is what he needs. Allen is as talented as they come but the tape and stats have me a bit nervous.

2. New York Giants-Saquon Barkley-RB-Penn State

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The Giants could choose to select a future franchise quarterback, but I think they go with the best player in the Draft. The Giants don’t have any runningbacks that make teams nervous and having a guy like Barkley around would force defenses to pay more attention to him, which can lead to more opportunities for ODell Beckham Jr to get open (as if he needed them). I think Eli Manning has another year or two left so they can draft his replacement in a later round or next year.

3. New York Jets (from Indianapolis Colts)-Sam Darnold-QB-USC

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I’ve heard the Jets are considering between Darnold and Mayfield and since the Jets have a poor track record of developing quarterbacks (see: Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg), I think they go with the guy who probably needs the least development in this class in Darnold. Darnold will have an opportunity to start right out of the gate but I don’t think it would hurt to have Josh McCown or Teddy Bridgewater start and have Darnold develop behind him.

4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston Texans)-Bradley Chubb-EDGE-North Carolina State

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I think Minkah Fitzpatrick would be the better selection for the Browns here, but this is what I’m hearing they want to do. If they do pull the trigger on Bradley Chubb, they could have one of the most dominant defensive lines in the NFL. With Myles Garrett and Emmanuel Ogbah already looking like stud pass rushers, adding Chubb would give opposing offensive lines nightmares.

5. PROJECTED TRADE: Miami Dolphins (from Denver Broncos)-Baker Mayfield-QB-Oklahoma

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First big trade projection here. I think the Dolphins give the 11th overall pick and their 2019 first rounder to the Broncos to go up and take the guy they’ve reportedly been in love with for some time. I don’t think quarterback is the biggest need for the Dolphins, but Ryan Tannehill’s contract is up after this season and I doubt the Dolphins are going to want to give him the big contract he’s probably going to command, making quarterback an eventual need. Because Tannehill will still be on the roster, Mayfield can sit and develop, which is exactly what he needs.

6. PROJECTED TRADE: Buffalo Bills (from Indianapolis Colts via New York Jets)-Josh Rosen-QB-UCLA

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Another big trade, this time I think the Bills give up both of their first rounders to the Colts to move up. The Cardinals are trying to move up as well and I think the Colts will use that as leverage because the Bills are reportedly “desperate” to draft a quarterback in the first round. In this scenario, I have them taking Josh Rosen, who I think is the best quarterback in this class. He can start right away and there isn’t a huge financial commitment to AJ McCarron so there isn’t any pressure to have the former Bengals quarterback start over Rosen like there was with Mike Glennon over Mitchell Trubisky last season for the Bears.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Derwin James-S-Florida State

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Again, not the pick I would make but I’m hearing that the Buccaneers are “in love” with Derwin James and I think he would instantly become the enforcer on this defense. When the Buccaneers were wreaking havoc on the NFL in the late-90’s early-2000’s, they did it with a star defensive lineman (Warren Sapp), a star linebacker (Derrick Brooks), and a star safety (John Lynch). On their current roster, they’ve got their star defensive lineman (Gerald McCoy) and two star linebackers (Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David). They just don’t have that safety. Enter James, who would become the enforcer type that Lynch was.

8. Chicago Bears-Quenton Nelson-OG-Notre Dame

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The Bears need to aid Trubisky in any way they can. They already accomplished some of that in free agency by getting him some receivers to throw to in Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel, now they need to shore up the offensive line and there isn’t a better offensive line prospect in this year’s class than Quenton Nelson. Nelson’s a dominant run blocker and a very good pass blocker and I think he’ll make life a lot easier for both Trubisky and Jordan Howard.

9. San Francisco 49ers-Tremaine Edmunds-LB-Virginia Tech

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With the uncertainty surrounding Reuben Foster’s future, middle linebacker all of a sudden becomes a need for the 49ers. Tremaine Edmunds is probably the most physically gifted middle linebacker we’ve seen this generation, as he’s 6’5 250 pounds and runs a 4.5 40 yard dash so I think he could be the guy for them. And if Foster does manage to get cleared, Edmunds can play outside linebacker and rush off the edge as well.

10. Oakland Raiders-Roquan Smith-LB-Georgia

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Everybody seems to single this out as a “Jon Gruden pick.” Roquan Smith is about as instinctive a linebacker as you’re going to find and he would be a leader on this Raiders’ defense. He doesn’t shed blocks very well so the defensive linemen may need to step it up a bit, but if he can go unblocked, your play is done.

11. PROJECTED TRADE: Denver Broncos (from Miami Dolphins)-Denzel Ward-CB-Ohio State

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The Broncos trade down, get an extra first rounder next year, and still get the guy they probably would’ve taken at 5 anyway in Denzel Ward. After losing Aqib Talib in the offseason, the Broncos have a need at corner opposite Chris Harris. Bradley Roby is a capable replacement, but he’s proven to be very useful at nickel and I don’t think tampering with that would be in Denver’s best interest. Ward is the best in a pretty good corner class and I think he will be a step in the right direction towards rebuilding this defense.

12. PROJECTED TRADE: Indianapolis Colts (from Buffalo Bills via Cincinnati Bengals)-Minkah Fitzpatrick-S-Alabama

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This isn’t the best fit in the world, as I think Fitzpatrick is best suited to be a centerfielding safety, which the Colts already have in Malik Hooker. However I think the Colts go “best player available” and find a way to get Fitzpatrick on the field any way they can. Fitzpatrick can play anywhere in the secondary so there won’t be a lack of options for him on a very thin Colts defense.

13. Washington Redskins-Vita Vea-DL-Washington

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I’ve already stated before I’m not in love with Vita Vea, but you can’t deny he’s a space clogger. The Redskins’ run defense was poor last season but adding a guy with Vea’s size could alleviate a lot of those pains. Pair him with a healthy Jonathan Allen and the Redskins could see a huge shift in the right direction in their run defense.

14. Green Bay Packers-Josh Jackson-CB-Iowa

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The Packers NEED secondary help and it wouldn’t shock me to see them try and move up ahead of the Broncos to try and land Denzel Ward or Minkah Fitzpatrick. But I don’t think they’ll be successful and I think they’ll settle for Josh Jackson, whose instincts and ballhawking skills will make him a very valuable asset in Green Bay’s secondary.

15. Arizona Cardinals-Lamar Jackson-QB-Louisville

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Here’s a shocker that may shake the entire draft. The Cardinals are reportedly trying very hard to trade into the top 10 to land a quarterback but I don’t think they have the ammunition to do so. Therefore, I think they’ll stay put and take a chance on Lamar Jackson, one of the most exciting playmakers in the nation. The former Heisman trophy winner won’t have to start right away, as the Cardinals signed Sam Bradford to a 3 year deal in the offseason, so he can work on his passing mechanics in the meantime.

16. Baltimore Ravens-Marcus Davenport-EDGE-UTSA

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Terrell Suggs will turn 36 during this NFL season so it’s high time the Ravens started grooming his replacement. Enter Davenport, who was one of the most entertaining film watches in recent memory. Granted, the talent he was going up against was subpar, but he was dominating like you’d expect a potential high draft choice to do. He’s still pretty raw, but pairing him with a great pass rusher like Suggs would be the perfect environment for him to take up the mantle as the Ravens’ pass rush extraordinaire.

17. Los Angeles Chargers-Leighton Vander Esch-LB-Boise State

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This could easily be a right tackle like Mike McGlinchey, but I think the Chargers are going to go with Leighton Vander Esch here to shore up their defense. Vander Esch reportedly may go higher than a lot of people might expect and the Chargers make a lot of sense, as they need that physical run stopper in the middle of their defense.

18. Seattle Seahawks-Isaiah Wynn-OG-Georgia

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The Seahawks appear to be preparing for a rebuild after blowing up their defense and I think the most important thing for them to do is address their offensive line. Isaiah Wynn would be a godsend for Pete Carroll’s staff because the Seahawks need help all over their offensive line and Wynn can play anywhere on it, filling whichever need they so choose.

19. Dallas Cowboys-Courtland Sutton-WR-SMU

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The Cowboys recently met with Sutton and I think with the release of Dez Bryant, this makes him the likely pick here. While Sutton is my 4th rated receiver, I have him going to Dallas because of his similarities to Bryant and I think it’s the best fit not only for him, but for the Cowboys as well. He’s a big guy with a large catch radius and I think he and Dak Prescott could form a fun connection.

20. Detroit Lions-Harold Landry-EDGE-Boston College

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The Lions managed to franchise tag Ziggy Ansah but even with him back for another year, pass rusher is still a major need as there’s nobody opposite him that teams need to worry about. Harold Landry has some work to do against the run but his pass rushing skills are so good that I think a pass rush-needy team like the Lions would be willing to overlook his flaws against the run.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (from Buffalo Bills)-James Daniels-C-Iowa

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After losing Russell Bodine in free agency, there’s a huge hole at center. Considering how thin the rest of the offensive line class is, center is actually pretty deep and Daniels is the best of the bunch. He’s easily the best athlete in this class of centers and could kick out to guard if need be. You can get a lot more creative with your blocking schemes with an athlete like Daniels, which I think could really be helpful to the development of Joe Mixon.

22. PROJECTED TRADE: Indianapolis Colts (from Buffalo Bills via Kansas City Chiefs)-Rashaan Evans-LB-Alabama

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This is the other Bills pick that would be acquired for the 6th overall pick. The Colts have numerous needs so stocking up on picks would be huge. Rashaan Evans was a leader on one of the top defenses in the country and this would be the second Alabama stud the Colts would be adding to their defense if my mock draft comes true. He’s a good athlete with some injury concerns. Despite not being “the guy” last year with Alabama with Reuben Foster being around, Evans still found ways to make plays an impact the game and continued to do so when he was given the reigns as the team’s MIKE linebacker.

23. New England Patriots-Kolton Miller-OT-UCLA

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A lot of people think the Patriots made this pick to put themselves in a better position to draft Tom Brady’s successor. I don’t think they will in the first round. There’s too big a hole at left tackle that even a great coach like Dante Scarnecchia can’t fill. Kolton Miller is basically a carbon copy of the recently-departed Nate Solder and I think he can slide in Day 1 protecting Tom Brady’s blind side (and perhaps another quarterback in this draft class a few years down the road).

24. Carolina Panthers-Calvin Ridley-WR-Alabama

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I think the fact that Calvin Ridley is 24 years old will cause him to slide. I think he’s the best receiver in this class but there are plenty of people who disagree with me and think that honor belongs to DJ Moore. But Ridley is an excellent athlete and a great route runner and the Panthers can use all the receiver help that they can get. Yes they added Torrey Smith but Smith hasn’t really been relevant for years now so I think the addition of Ridley will be really helpful for the Panthers offense.

25. Tennessee Titans-Da’Ron Payne-DL-Alabama

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The Titans need a middle linebacker but there really isn’t one available here for them. This pick could be on the move, whether the Titans try and trade up for that middle linebacker or they trade back and add more draft capital. The Titans could also use some help on the defensive line to aid Jurrell Casey and Da’Ron Payne is a guy I think could be useful for them. This is a case of “best player available” as interior line wouldn’t be their biggest need, but beefing up a strength can pay dividends.

26. PROJECTED TRADE: Jacksonville Jaguars (from Atlanta Falcons)-Dallas Goedert-TE-South Dakota State

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I’ve got the Jaguars sneaking up ahead of the Saints to take a tight end. Dallas Goedert is the only first round talent at the position and the Saints have shown some serious interest in tight ends after having been rumored to be trying to bring back Jimmy Graham before the Packers snatched him up. Jacksonville has none so I think they take the risk and trade up. Goedert can help round out their offense and the more help you can get Blake Bortles, the better.

27. PROJECTED TRADE: Cleveland Browns (from New Orleans Saints)-Connor Williams-OT-Texas

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With Goedert gone, I think the Saints try and build some draft capital. I think the Browns use their plethora of picks to trade back into the first round to have 3 first round picks for the second consecutive year. With Joe Thomas’ retirement, there’s a huge hole at left tackle and while there are people that think that Connor Williams should play guard, I think he’ll be fine as a left tackle and could be Thomas’ heir.

28. PROJECTED TRADE: New York Giants (from Pittsburgh Steelers)-Mike McGlinchey-OT-Notre Dame

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The Steelers really don’t have a ton of needs so I think they listen to some trade offers. The Giants need offensive linemen and I think they’ll trade back into the first round to take Mike McGlinchey. McGlinchey is probably better suited to play right tackle but anything is better than Ereck Flowers on the left side right now so I think McGlinchey will start out there while a pretty solid Justin Pugh mans the right side.

29. PROJECTED TRADE: Atlanta Falcons (from Jacksonville Jaguars)-Taven Bryan-DL-Florida

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The only real hole for the Falcons right now is defensive tackle after the departure of Dontari Poe. Grady Jarrett doesn’t really have anyone to line up alongside him in a base 4-3 front. I have Michigan’s Maurice Hurst ranked above Taven Bryan, but the heart condition Hurst was diagnosed with at the combine has scared some teams so badly that they took him off their board entirely. Bryan isn’t too far behind Hurst from a talent standpoint though so I don’t think the Falcons will complain too much about settling for him.

30. Minnesota Vikings-Isaiah Oliver-CB-Colorado

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Trae Waynes’ contract is up soon and even so, he hasn’t been great for the Vikings. I think they try and draft his replacement in Isaiah Oliver, who might be a different style of player, but is perfect to cover bigger receivers in the division like Allen Robinson and Marvin Jones.

31. PROJECTED TRADE: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from New England Patriots)-Derrius Guice-RB-LSU

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The Patriots like to move their picks so I think they will listen to offers. The runningback position is currently a black hole for the Buccaneers and there will be several teams ahead of them in the second round who could jump ahead and take Derrius Guice so I think they’ll decide not to risk it and will jump ahead to take the talented back, who will almost certainly start right away for them.

32. Philadelphia Eagles-Jaire Alexander-CB-Louisville

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Jaire Alexander is a really talented corner and after having to cut Daryl Worley shortly after acquiring him due to his recent arrest, corner is once again a need for the Super Bowl champs. Alexander had a big combine and his athleticism will make him popular in Philly.

Notable Players Still Available: DJ Moore-WR-Maryland, Justin Reid-S-Stanford, Maurice Hurst-DL-Michigan, Sam Hubbard-EDGE-Ohio State, Mike Hughes-CB-UCF, Christian Kirk-WR-Texas A&M

Also, as promised, here’s the link to my NFL.com Predict the Pick Draft that does not project trades and is based on what I would do given each team’s situation. I’m not sure if it will link to my actual draft or to a blank one for you to make your own. If it doesn’t link to my draft, let me know through your method of choice and I’ll send it to you. That’s going to do it for my final mock. Let me know what you think of the picks in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

Revisiting the 2017 NFL Draft Class

With Thursday’s 2018 NFL Draft quickly approaching, it got me to thinking back towards last year’s event. During this week of draft coverage that I’ve been doing, I’ve been doing my best to abstain from going into too much depth over the 2017 class because we just don’t know what we have with each player as of yet. In 2016, Jared Goff, who was taken #1 overall by the Rams, was looking like a colossal bust. He didn’t win a single game as a rookie and he looked totally overwhelmed by NFL competition. Enter a new head coach in Sean McVay and Goff became one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks and helped lead the Rams to a division title. There’s also Robert Griffin III in 2012. He set the league on fire as a rookie but a knee injury in the playoffs followed by being rushed back to play before he was ready sapped him of his explosiveness and his weaknesses as a passer were exposed. So quite frankly, we really don’t know what we have in the young stars like Deshaun Watson, Alvin Kamara, and Kareem Hunt or with the unknowns like Mike Williams and John Ross. But let’s take a look at how the first round went last year and see how these guys did and what it means for their futures in the league. The number in parentheses is where they ranked on my Big Board.

1. Cleveland Browns-Myles Garrett-EDGE-Texas A&M (1)

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Garrett struggled with injuries as a rookie but when he was on the field, he was a beast. He played 11 games and recorded 7 sacks, including 2 in his first game. If he can stay healthy, he looks like he’s going to be a beast off the edge for the Browns.

2. Chicago Bears (from San Francisco 49ers)-Mitchell Trubisky-QB-North Carolina (19)

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Trubisky basically just played like a rookie. He had some good moments but he also made his share of mistakes. He ended up going 4-8 as a starter and threw for 2193 yards with 7 TD’s and 7 picks while completing just 59% of his passes. Not great, but there’s something there with him. He’s getting a new head coach in Matt Nagy, who likes to run RPO’s and we saw how well Nick Foles did with those in the playoffs. He’s also actually getting a supporting cast of receivers, as the Bears signed Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel in the offseason.

3. San Francisco 49ers (from Chicago Bears)-Solomon Thomas-DL-Stanford (5)

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Thomas didn’t do a ton as a rookie, but he didn’t really need to. He played 14 games but he started 12 of them and only recorded 3 sacks. He did flash some of the ability that made him the third overall pick, though, and we’ll have to wait and see how he grows in year 2.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars-Leonard Fournette-RB-LSU (3)

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Fournette basically did exactly what I expected him to do, which is to be the Jaguars’ bellcow and he was the focal point of their offense. He rushed for 1040 yards with 9 TD’s and while his YPC wasn’t great (3.9), that can be attributed to the fact that he was the only real weapon on Jacksonville’s offense and teams were stacking the box against him.

5. Tennessee Titans (from Los Angeles Rams)-Corey Davis-WR-Western Michigan (17)

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Davis spent much of the season injured and didn’t record his first NFL touchdown until the playoffs against the Patriots, where he had a very impressive game in the Divisional Round. He caught two TD’s and started looking like the receiver we expected him to be.

6. New York Jets-Jamal Adams-S-LSU (2)

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Adams immediately became a leader in the Jets’ locker room and was an enforcer on the field. He and fellow 2017 rookie Marcus Maye formed a pretty good safety tandem that should have Jets fans very excited.

7. Los Angeles Chargers-Mike Williams-WR-Clemson (14)

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Williams basically did nothing as a rookie. He was limited by injuries, playing 10 games and starting just 1, however he only managed to catch 11 passes for 95 yards and no touchdowns. It’s still early, but this hasn’t been a promising start for the former Clemson star.

8. Carolina Panthers-Christian McCaffrey-RB-Stanford (12)

at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on January 7, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana.

McCaffrey didn’t put up gaudy rushing stats, as he only ran for 435 yards on 117 carries, but he was utilized far more frequently in the passing game, catching 80 passes for 651 yards. With Jonathan Stewart no longer with the organization, expect an uptick in carries for the former Stanford star.

9. Cincinnati Bengals-John Ross-WR-Washington (23)

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Ross, who was famous for posting the fastest 40-yard dash time in Combine history at 4.22, was a nonfactor for the Bengals last season. He played just 3 games due to injury, but even in those games he didn’t amount to anything. He failed to catch a pass and his lone touch was a carry that he fumbled. A pretty poor start to Ross’ career if I do say so myself (and I do).

10. Kansas City Chiefs (from Buffalo Bills)-Pat Mahomes II-QB-Texas Tech (47)

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I was not a fan of taking Mahomes in the first round because I felt he had the steepest learning curve of any quarterback in recent memory, coming from Texas Tech. However he landed in the perfect situation in Kansas City and got a chance to make a start in Week 17, leading the Chiefs to a victory over the Broncos. The Chiefs traded Alex Smith so this is Mahomes’ team now. We’ll have to see how he does with it.

11. New Orleans Saints-Marshon Lattimore-CB-Ohio State (7)

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One could argue that Lattimore was 2017’s best rookie. He won Defensive Rookie of the Year and is already considered to be one of the top corners in the game, which says a lot considering he had to cover the likes of Julio Jones and Mike Evans twice each.

12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns)-Deshaun Watson-QB-Clemson (26)

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People are ripping the Browns for not taking Watson here and trading this pick to the Texans, but to be honest, given how poor they were run last year, I don’t think Watson has the same success in Cleveland that he did in Houston. Before his untimely ACL injury, Watson led the NFL with 19 passing touchdowns and was running away with Offensive Rookie of the Year. He looks like he’s the quarterback of the future for the Texans.

13. Arizona Cardinals-Haason Reddick-EDGE-Temple (9)

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Reddick was one of my favorite players in the 2017 class but he didn’t really do much as a rookie. He played in all 16 games but made just 3 starts, recording 2.5 sacks but he did force a couple fumbles. It’s a big step up in competition going from Temple to the NFL so I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt at this stage.

14. Philadelphia Eagles (from Minnesota Vikings)-Derek Barnett-EDGE-Tennessee (13)

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Derek Barnett’s stats were okay overall, however a lot of that was due to just how deep the Eagles were at defensive end, as he had to compete with the likes of Brandon Graham, Chris Long, and Vinny Curry for snaps. However Barnett and Graham teamed up to make one of the most critical plays for the Eagles’ first ever Super Bowl win, when Graham strip-sacked Tom Brady and Barnett recovered. He flashed a lot of potential and could be a force for this Eagles defensive line.

15. Indianapolis Colts-Malik Hooker-S-Ohio State (6)

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The Colts finally addressed the defense in last year’s draft and Hooker looks like a good pick. I had him as a Top-10 talent but he slipped to pick number 15 and looked like an absolute ballhawk for the Colts. However his season was cut short due to injury but he still managed to rack up 3 picks in just 7 games.

16. Baltimore Ravens-Marlon Humphrey-CB-Alabama (25)

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Humphrey got off to a slow start but he really came on by the end of the year. As you can see from the photo above, the Ravens were trusting him to cover the likes of AJ Green with a playoff berth on the line. Humphrey will likely get more opportunities at opponents’ number 1 receivers in due time.

17. Washington Redskins-Jonathan Allen-DL-Alabama (10)

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Like Hooker, Allen was a top-10 talent that fell, though this was due to concerns over his shoulder. The concerns were very real, as that shoulder caused him to miss most of his rookie season. However when he was on the field, Allen was absolutely dominant, particularly against the run. Hopefully an offseason of rehab will help him because the Redskins desperately need a run stuffer.

18. Tennessee Titans-Adoree’ Jackson-CB-USC (N/A)

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I thought this was a massive reach by the Titans because I had Jackson as a late-second/early-third round pick due to his lack of size but, credit to him he held his own out there. He was a starter from day 1 and with the Titans’ addition of Malcolm Butler, Jackson can kick inside to the slot to face the shiftier receivers, which is where he will be best utilized.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers-OJ Howard-TE-Alabama (4)

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Howard had an up-and-down rookie season, though he finished it with 432 yards and 6 touchdowns. Not eye-popping by any means, but tight ends typically have the toughest transition to the NFL given how much they’re asked to do nowadays so I’d say watch out for Howard next season.

20. Denver Broncos-Garrett Bolles-OT-Utah (31)

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Bolles had one of the sweeter draft moments when he brought his infant daughter on stage with him to greet Roger Goodell when his name was called. Bolles was a Day 1 starter for the Broncos and while he did suffer through injury problems, he was decent when he was on the field. Probably not going to be an All Pro, but he’ll be a more-than-competent tackle for Denver.

21. Detroit Lions-Jarrad Davis-LB-Florida (28)

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Eyebrows were raised when the Lions took Davis over Alabama’s Reuben Foster, but given Foster’s legal situation, this looks like the right choice, especially considering how well Davis played as a rookie. He’s a guy Matt Patricia will have a lot of fun with in his first season as a head coach.

22. Miami Dolphins-Charles Harris-EDGE-Missouri (20)

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Harris wasn’t much of a factor for the Dolphins as a rookie, playing in all 16 games but registering just 2 sacks. With Cameron Wake already up there in age, now would be a good time for Harris to start showing he was worth the first round selection.

23. New York Giants-Evan Engram-TE-Ole Miss (24)

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Engram wasn’t much of a blocker for the Giants but he was an excellent receiver, which is kind of what was expected of him coming out of college. Engram led all rookie tight ends in receiving yards at 722 and also caught 6 touchdowns for the Giants. He looks like a good complimentary piece to ODell Beckham Jr.

24. Oakland Raiders-Gareon Conley-CB-Ohio State (N/A)

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This pick was REALLY controversial because Conley had been accused of rape just weeks before the Draft. I had taken him off my board altogether just out of fear of the allegations being true. However the Raiders took Conley anyway and the charges were later dropped. He only played 2 games due to injury but the Raiders must have liked what they saw because he’s currently slated as their #1 corner.

25. Cleveland Browns (from Houston Texans)-Jabrill Peppers-S-Michigan (18)

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Peppers struggled as a rookie but he was also playing at a position that didn’t best utilize his abilities. He was playing a lot of free safety where he has to cover a lot of ground rather than nickel corner where he can chase guys around the field, which is what he’s best at. If the Browns can find a centerfielder-type safety (like Minkah Fitzpatrick), then it would allow Peppers to do what he does best.

26. Atlanta Falcons (from Seattle Seahawks)-Takkarist McKinley-EDGE-UCLA (16)

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Takk McKinley got a bit controversial when he got really hyped and passionate after he was selected 26th overall in the Draft, going so far as to drop an F-bomb into Deion Sanders’ mic on live television (which I saw coming a mile away given how much emotion he was showing). I actually found the moment kind of endearing because it shows just how passionate this guy is. He was a situational pass rusher for the Falcons as a rookie and he looked pretty good, registering 6 sacks and forcing 2 fumbles in a limited role. He’s going to have more opportunities this season so watch out for him.

27. Buffalo Bills (from Kansas City Chiefs)-Tre’Davious White-CB-LSU (27)

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What a trade by the Bills. They move back from 10 to 27, get an extra first rounder in 2018, and use the pick they do get on Tre’Davious White, who was the highest-graded rookie corner by Pro Football Focus (even higher than Lattimore, who won Defensive Rookie of the Year over him). White has already earned the Bills’ #1 corner job and was a big part in Buffalo making the playoffs for the first time in the 21st century.

28. Dallas Cowboys-Taco Charlton-EDGE-Michigan (44)

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Charlton was drafted as an insurance policy in case DeMarcus Lawrence left in free agency after the 2017-18 season. Lawrence got franchise tagged so Charlton will have another year to develop alongside the stud pass rusher. He’ll need it, too, because he was mediocre as a rookie, registering just 3 sacks. He did flash some potential, though, but more work needs to be done.

29. Cleveland Browns (from Green Bay Packers)-David Njoku-TE-Miami (FL) (21)

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The Browns traded up with the Packers to land Njoku and while his overall stat line wasn’t that great (32 catches for 386 yards and 4 TD’s), it seemed like every time the Browns popped up on the screen when I was watching NFL Redzone the play somehow involved Njoku. I think he’s primed for a big Year 2.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers-TJ Watt-EDGE-Wisconsin (29)

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JJ’s little brother had about as good an NFL debut as you could ask for, recording 2 sacks and registering an interception in his first game. He finished the year with 7 sacks and looks like he’s going to be a stud for the Steelers for some time.

31. San Francisco 49ers (from Seattle Seahawks through Atlanta Falcons)-Reuben Foster-LB-Alabama (8)

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This one’s a little tricky. Foster was excellent on the field, however his days with the 49ers may be numbered due to an off-the-field incident. Foster has been accused of domestic violence, where he allegedly punched his girlfriend 8-10 times, which ruptured her ear drum. He was also found in possession of numerous illegal firearms. If convicted, he could face up to 11 years in prison. 49ers GM John Lynch has publicly stated that if Foster is convicted, he will be cut immediately. However they want to wait for the judicial process to conclude because they cut Tramaine Brock before his domestic violence case was over and he was cleared of all charges. But despite great on-field performance, Foster’s NFL career may be in jeopardy if these horrific allegations are true.

32. New Orleans Saints (from New England Patriots)-Ryan Ramczyk-OT-Wisconsin (22)

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This is the pick the Saints acquired from the Patriots for Brandin Cooks and it was one of several home runs the Saints had in this draft class. Ramczyk was seen as a raw talent and people were concerned when he had to enter the starting lineup in week one due to an injury to Zach Strief. However he played excellently at right tackle and is going to start there for the foreseeable future for New Orleans.

So that’s how the first round played out last year. Injuries played a factor for a lot of these guys but you cannot deny they showed a lot of ability. Not a lot of guys who are already looking like busts (Mike Williams and John Ross are the only guys that I can really consider to be in danger of falling into that category). Of course, two of the biggest talents in this class, Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt, went in the third round. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with the 2018 class. Of course, you can get your next-day coverage here at Wyman’s Sports. Let me know what you think of the 2017 Draft Class in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

Blind Resumes. NFL Draft Edition

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Before I get into today’s blog, I just wanted to say that I noticed something. I haven’t had a single blog posted for Monday all month. Not one. I was going to try and write one Sunday night but there was just nothing there worth writing about. That’s when I noticed the “Wyman’s Time Machine,” which is the calendar on the side of the screen that tells you what blog I posted on what day so if you have one you particularly liked you can go back and check it out. Well it links the days that had blogs posted. Not a single Monday has a linked date. Just something I noticed.

Now onto the actual blog itself, ESPN posted an interesting little thing on their website that I had a good time with and I thought I’d get into myself. Here’s the link to it. Basically what it is is it gives you two quarterbacks. You don’t know who they are but what you have available is their college stats. You have to guess based on the stats who was the better pro. It gets pretty fun especially when you see a guy who sucked in the NFL put up better numbers than a future Hall of Famer. It randomizes each time you play so you can go at it a bunch. It also gives a quarterback prospect from this year’s class that compares to both players.

I’m going to do something a little similar, but I’m going to go with not only quarterbacks, but runningbacks, and wide receivers. Offensive linemen and defensive players won’t get included just because their stats tend to be all over the place and are often unreliable, particularly the tackles stat. It would just be a nightmare to try and sift through them. The point of this blog is to determine whether college stats actually matter when it comes to scouting players. Mel Kiper Jr made headlines a few weeks ago by saying he doesn’t care about Josh Allen’s completion percentage, yet earlier he had made remarks about Lamar Jackson saying he wished his completion percentage was higher. So let’s get to some blind resumes. We’re going to do 4 players for each position. Two were successful in the NFL, two were not. Let’s see if you can guess who is who.

Quarterbacks

QB1: QB1 absolutely lit up the stat sheets in college. He was a 3-year starter in college and never threw below 4300 yards in a season. His junior season was particularly incredible as he threw for over 5500 yards and 58 touchdowns, which is an FBS record. He finished third for the Heisman that year, however the fact he played at a smaller school hurt his candidacy. In his senior season, he led his team to a 12-0 record and an appearance in a New Year’s 6 bowl where they lost big to a major school.

QB2: QB2 struggled in college. While he was a part of a national championship winning team as a sophomore, he was stuck behind a guy on the depth chart who ended up playing baseball. When he finally did earn the starting job, he struggled a bit. He never threw for more than 2427 yards in a season and his TD-INT ratio for his career was 30-17. His teams were winning, though, as his school won 10 games in both of his seasons as a starter. However, scouts liked him just as much as QB1, as both were drafted in the same round (different drafts).

QB3: QB3 had a pretty successful college career. He was a four-year starter for a major college program, including winning a national championship and being the runner-up for the Heisman trophy his senior season. His passing yards totals increased every season, peaking at 3819 as a senior where he also threw a career-high 36 touchdowns, however his completion percentage was the lowest of his collegiate career that season at 60.2%.

QB4: QB4 had a very decorated career. He won a Heisman Trophy his third season, where he threw for 4699 yards and 46 touchdowns. He even won the Heisman despite the fact that he didn’t play for one of the premiere programs in college football. He put his own school on the map, though, and nowadays this school is considered one of the top mid-major schools in the country.

So. Who was good in the NFL and who wasn’t? Time to reveal the identities of each player.

QB1 is Colt Brennan. Brennan took Hawaii of all schools to the Sugar Bowl and was a 6th round pick by the Washington Redskins in 2008, however he never appeared in an NFL game.

QB2 is Tom Brady. Brady was a 6th round pick out of Michigan in 2000 and struggled to beat out Drew Henson for the starting job. He is a 5-time Super Bowl champion and shows no signs of slowing down despite being 40 years old.

QB3 is Peyton Manning. Manning was the first overall pick in 1998 and holds basically every statistical record in the NFL for a quarterback and is a 2-time Super Bowl champion as well as being the only starting quarterback to win a Super Bowl with 2 teams.

QB4 is Andre Ware. Ware was a first round pick out of Houston in 1990 by the Lions and started just 6 career games in 4 NFL seasons before he was out of the league.

So now that you see how the game works, let’s get to the next position group.

Runningbacks

RB1: RB1 had a very unimpressive first two years before exploding onto the scene in his third season. He entered his third year with just 900 career rushing yards before winning a Heisman trophy in that magical season. Many of people consider that year to be the greatest season ever by a collegiate runningback however there were concerns that he was just a one-hit wonder.

RB2: RB2 had a successful college career, particularly in his sophomore and junior seasons. He was not only a successful runner, but a successful receiver as well, as he had over 4000 yards from scrimmage in his career while also scoring 21 TD’s his junior season. He was the top runningback selected in his class.

RB3: RB3 started his career playing at an FCS school before transferring to a Power-5 school his sophomore season. He never rushed for more than 824 yards in a season and at no point did he eclipse 1000 yards from scrimmage in a season despite being a pretty good receiver, particularly in his senior season. In fact, in his senior season, he lost a lot of carries to a player who would become better known as a wide receiver at the next level. He was a late-round pick and ended up having a relatively short NFL career.

RB4: RB4 was a Heisman Trophy winner and parlayed that success to becoming a first round pick. He posted one of the best all-around seasons in college football history in his Heisman-winning season, rushing for over 2000 yards and had over 300 receiving yards.

So, who is who?

RB1 is Barry Sanders. Sanders holds the NCAA record for rushing yards in a season, a feat he accomplished in 1988 at Oklahoma State and was the 3rd overall pick of the 1989 Draft by the Detroit Lions. He is the NFL’s third all-time leading rusher and probably could have been the record-holder had he not abruptly retired while he was in his prime. In my personal opinion, I consider Sanders to be the greatest runningback of all time mainly because he was setting all these records despite playing behind an awful offensive line throughout his Lions’ career.

RB2 is Bishop Sankey. Sankey was a second round pick by the Tennessee Titans out of Washington in the 2014 NFL Draft and was the first runningback taken. Sankey lasted just 2 NFL seasons and struggled to see the field, resulting in just over 700 career rushing yards.

RB3 is Terrell Davis. Davis started his collegiate career at Long Beach State before transferring to Georgia. The runningback-turned-wide-receiver in question that Davis lost carries to is actually Hines Ward, who is the Steelers’ all-time leading receiver who had almost as many rushing yards as TD in his final season at Georgia. Davis was taken by the Broncos in the 6th round of the 1995 NFL Draft and he rushed for over 1000 yards in each of his first four seasons, including 2008 yards in 1998. He was a 2-time Super Bowl Champion, including Super Bowl MVP in Super Bowl XXXII. He was NFL MVP in 1998 and was inducted into the Hall of Fame this past season despite playing just 7 seasons.

RB4 is Rashaan Salaam. While Salaam did win the Heisman and ran for over 1000 yards as a rookie with the Bears, his yards per carry was an unimpressive 3.6 and that came back to bite him in ensuing seasons, as his yardage total was more than halved in each season until his career ended after the 1999 season. Injuries played a big factor in that, however one must wonder what could’ve been with the recently deceased Salaam (may he rest in peace).

Wide Receiver

WR1: WR1 set the college football world on fire. Despite playing for a smaller school in the late 1990’s, this receiver set the college football record for receiving yards in a season. He had at least 1000 receiving yards in 3 of his 4 collegiate seasons, the lone exception being his freshman year when he had over 500 yards receiving.

WR2: WR2 played in an offense that didn’t utilize his skills, yet despite this, he put up some impressive numbers. His offense was very run-heavy, but that didn’t stop him from recording at least 800 receiving yards in all 3 of his college seasons. He had a terrific scouting combine and he was taken extremely highly in the NFL Draft based mostly on potential.

WR3: WR3 played just 2 seasons of college football, yet they were tremendous. In both seasons, he recorded very similar stat lines. In his sophomore season, he caught 67 passes for 1470 yards and 14 TD’s. In his junior season, he caught 68 passes for 1351 yards and 13 TD’s. This was all done in a Power 5 conference that is known for good defense and running the football so his dominance was intensified and as a result, he was taken just as highly as WR2. In fact, both were drafted by the same organization.

WR4: WR4 actually played quarterback for a mid-major school and caught just one pass in his collegiate career, yet was drafted as a wide receiver in the 7th round. As a quarterback, he was better known as a running quarterback, since his completion percentage was never above 55.6% and he ran for over 1200 yards in that season.

So let’s see who was who.

WR1 is Trevor Insley. Insley was a receiver at Nevada and actually holds the single-season receiving yards record at 2060 in 1999. He is the only receiver in FBS or pro football history to have a 2000-yard receiving season. However he went undrafted and played just one NFL season with the Colts in 2001, where he had just 14 catches for 165 yards and one touchdown.

WR2 is Calvin Johnson. Megatron played at Georgia Tech, which is notorious for its wishbone offense that typically just has one wide receiver on the field at all times and they run the ball nearly every play. However, the 6’5 Johnson ran a 4.3 40 at the NFL Combine and was the 2nd overall pick by the Lions in the 2007 NFL Draft. He set the single-season NFL record for receiving in 2012 with 1954 yards and nearly broke the single-game record in 2013 against the Cowboys with 329 yards.

WR3 is Charles Rogers. At Michigan State, Rogers was a beast, however he was a disaster in the NFL with the Lions. He was the 2nd overall pick with the Lions in 2003 yet managed just 440 receiving yards in 3 NFL seasons before he was out of the league entirely.

WR4 is Julian Edelman. Edelman played quarterback at Kent State but was drafted by the Patriots to play wide receiver in 2009. Since 2013, after the departure of Wes Welker, he has been Tom Brady’s most reliable weapon. His absence due to a torn ACL in the 2017 preseason was very noticeable, especially early on in the season.

So do stats really matter in college? I made sure to include some guys who had big numbers in college and the pros to try and give some balance to the argument. However, my conclusion is this: stats don’t necessarily mean everything when it comes to predicting NFL success. The guy with the best single-season receiving performance in college went undrafted and didn’t really do anything in the pros. In fact, I had never even heard of him even though he held the record. Just goes to show that stats might matter, but don’t put too much stock in them. Let me know what you think of using stats to project future success in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.