What the 2018 MLB All Star Team Would Look Like If We Went By WAR

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So as you’re probably aware, you have all the power to vote for the starters in Major League Baseball’s Midsummer Classic. I’ve voted a few times and voting officially closes at the end of next week so I thought I’d share who I’m voting for. The All Star Game is something that has been dying in popularity in all sports of late mainly because the competitive fire between the two leagues on each side is pretty much gone, especially considering the risk of injury for a game that has no relevance to the standings. But I love it damnit! I flew out to San Diego in 2016 to work the Home Run Derby and go to the All Star Game so this still means something to me.

So for those of you who live under a rock, there is one stat that rules them all for baseball nerds: Wins Above Replacement, or WAR for short. WAR is slightly different depending on which site you use (Fangraphs and Baseball Reference are slightly different formulas) but they typically agree on who is really good. WAR takes into account a player’s hitting, fielding, baserunning, you name it to create how many more games his team is winning because he’s in the lineup rather than your basic replacement-level player. The league average is about 2.0. 2-3 is considered above average, 3-4 is considered really good, 4-5 is considered All Star level, 6+ is MVP level. The best single-season WAR of all time was Babe Ruth’s 1923 season where he was worth 14.1 WAR (second-best is also Ruth at 12.9 in 1921). That season Ruth slashed .393/.545/.764 with 41 home runs and 130 RBI. In the last 10 years, the best WAR belongs to Mike Trout, which is a tie between his 2012 (his rookie year) and 2016 seasons where he was worth 10.5 WAR. So here are the starting 9’s of each team if WAR was the only deciding factor. A couple things to note, for outfield, I’m combining the three positions, which is what actually does happen for All Star balloting. Also since the National League doesn’t use a DH, I’ll be choosing the NL player with the best remaining WAR who isn’t already a starter (the NL manager chooses his DH for the actual All Star Game).

American League

Catcher-Gary Sanchez-New York Yankees (1.3 WAR)

First Base-Matt Olson-Oakland Athletics (1.5 WAR)

Second Base-Jose Altuve-Houston Astros (3.6 WAR)

Third Base-Jose Ramirez-Cleveland Indians (5.1 WAR)

Shortstop-Francisco Lindor-Cleveland Indians (4.4 WAR)

Outfield 1-Mike Trout-Anaheim Angels (6.1 WAR)

Outfield 2-Mookie Betts-Boston Red Sox (4.4 WAR)

Outfield 3-Aaron Judge-New York Yankees (3.6 WAR)

Designated Hitter-JD Martinez-Boston Red Sox (2.9 WAR)

Starting Pitcher-Trevor Bauer-Cleveland Indians (3.9 WAR)

National League

Catcher-JT Realmuto-Miami Marlins (2.9 WAR)

First Base-Freddie Freeman-Atlanta Braves (3.5 WAR)

Second Base-Scooter Gennett-Cincinnati Reds (2.4 WAR)

Third Base-Nolan Arenado-Colorado Rockies (3.3 WAR)

Shortstop-Trea Turner-Washington Nationals (2.4 WAR)

Outfield 1-Lorenzo Cain-Milwaukee Brewers (3.3 WAR)

Outfield 2-Brandon Nimmo-New York Mets (2.8 WAR)

Outfield 3-Nick Markakis-Atlanta Braves (2.4 WAR)

Designated Hitter*-Eugenio Suarez-Cincinnati Reds (2.7 WAR)

Starting Pitcher-Max Scherzer-Washington Nationals (4.2 WAR)

Here are the current leaderboards for the All Star voting (as of the most recent update, which was 2 weeks ago). As a reminder, fans do not vote for pitchers so there aren’t any results on who the top voted pitcher would be, plus the manager selects the starting pitcher on both sides:

AL

C-Gary Sanchez-New York Yankees (1.3 WAR)

1B-Jose Abreu-Chicago White Sox (0.6 WAR)

2B-Jose Altuve-Houston Astros (3.6 WAR)

3B-Jose Ramirez-Cleveland Indians (5.1 WAR)

SS-Manny Machado-Baltimore Orioles (2.7 WAR)

OF1-Mookie Betts-Boston Red Sox (4.4 WAR)

OF2-Mike Trout-Anaheim Angels (6.1 WAR)

OF3-Aaron Judge-New York Yankees (3.6 WAR)

DH-JD Martinez-Boston Red Sox (2.9 WAR)

So the fans and WAR are very much in agreement, as the only two positions that differ are first base and shortstop. Abreu is likely getting the recognition from the fans because not only of his starpower over Matt Olson, but also because of the batting averages (Abreu is hitting .272 while Olson is hitting .246). Abreu’s defense at first base is also subpar while Olson is in a 3-way tie for best DRS at first base in the Majors at +6 (Abreu is 4th worst at -4). Machado is also having a Hell of a year at shortstop, though his WAR is hurt by his defense because despite being known as a defensive wizard at third base, Machado is actually the worst shortstop in the Majors according to DRS. That’s probably why Machado is 1.7 WAR below Francisco Lindor despite their hitting stats being almost identical (seriously, look them up, they’re near carbon copies of one another right now). I’m not a fan of voting Gary Sanchez in for the catcher position not just because he’s a Yankee, but because he’s hitting .190. However he has the highest WAR among all qualifying AL catchers because there are only 2 catchers that actually have enough plate appearances to qualify: him and Tampa’s Wilson Ramos (whom I’ve been voting in over Sanchez).

NL

C-Buster Posey-San Francisco Giants (1.7 WAR)

1B-Freddie Freeman-Atlanta Braves (3.5 WAR)

2B-Ozzie Albies-Atlanta Braves (2.1 WAR)

3B-Nolan Arenado-Colorado Rockies (3.3 WAR)

SS-Brandon Crawford-San Francisco Giants (2.4 WAR)

OF1-Bryce Harper-Washington Nationals (1.2 WAR)

OF2-Nick Markakis-Atlanta Braves (2.4 WAR)

OF3-Matt Kemp-Los Angeles Dodgers (1.7 WAR)

As we can see, WAR and the fans only agree on 3 players starting the All Star game for the NL: Freddie Freeman, Nolan Arenado, and Nick Markakis. Lots of name value going on here, particularly for Bryce Harper, who is in the midst of his worst season, as he’s currently hitting a measly .219, a full 100 points below his final line from last season. Crawford is tied with Trea Turner for WAR so I guess technically the fans aren’t off on that one, but Turner was listed first so I picked him (I’ve been voting in Crawford on my ballot as well). Ozzie Albies is having a great season and is very deserving of an All Star spot, but I do not think he should be starting over Scooter Gennett. Now yes, Gennett is FAR from a household name. But since he joined the Reds last season, he’s been a revelation. He had a 4-homer game last season and he’s only kept it up this year, slashing .332/.369/.532 with 13 home runs and 51 RBI. His .332 batting average leads the National League and as far as I’m concerned, he’s having the best season out of any second baseman in baseball not named Jose Altuve. He should start and I will continue to stuff the ballot with his name.

And now for the grand finale, here’s how I voted in my most recent All Star ballot:

AL

C-Wilson Ramos-Tampa Bay Rays

1B-Mitch Moreland-Boston Red Sox (his WAR does not qualify, but it’s 1.7, which would be tops in the AL if he had enough plate appearances)

2B-Jose Altuve-Houston Astros

3B-Jose Ramirez-Cleveland Indians

SS-Manny Machado-Baltimore Orioles

OF1-Mike Trout-Anaheim Angels-

OF2-Mookie Betts-Boston Red Sox

OF3-Aaron Judge-New York Yankees

DH-JD Martinez-Boston Red Sox

NL

C-JT Realmuto-Miami Marlins

1B-Freddie Freeman-Atlanta Braves

2B-Scooter Gennett-Cincinnati Reds

3B-Nolan Arenado-Colorado Rockies

SS-Brandon Crawford-San Francisco Giants

OF1-Lorenzo Cain-Milwaukee Brewers

OF2-Odubel Herrera-Philadelphia Phillies

OF3-Nick Markakis-Atlanta Braves

My DH for the NL would probably be Christian Yelich of the Milwaukee Brewers if I had that option for a vote. So as you can see, with my ballot, the only places I disagreed with fans AND WAR were with Wilson Ramos (who is hitting .289), Mitch Moreland (who doesn’t qualify just yet), and Odubel Herrera (who is on FIRE right now and may creep up both leaderboards before all is said and done).

If you want to cast your own vote, you can do so here. Vote up to 35 times, so ballot stuffing is a real thing in this (just don’t do what Royals and Cubs fans have been doing these last couple years and stuffing the ballot boxes with their guys). Let me know what your All Star ballot is looking like in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

30 Clubs in 30 Days: Miami Marlins

I’ve decided against doing a whole Combine blog because to be totally honest, I didn’t end up watching as much of it as I usually do. School has been more of a pain in the ass at this time of year than it usually is. So I’m just going to briefly go position by position and list the player who most helped himself and most hurt himself.

Quarterback: 

Helped: Josh Allen-Wyoming

Hurt: Luke Falk-Washington State

Runninbgack:

Helped: Nick Chubb-Georgia

Hurt: Kamryn Pettway-Auburn

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley. Had best combine but was already #1 Overall Prospect

Wide Receiver:

Helped: Antonio Callaway: Florida

Hurt: Auden Tate-Florida State

Tight End:

Helped: Mike Gesicki-Penn State

Hurt: Ryan Izzo-Florida State

Offensive Line:

Helped: Brian O’Neill-Pittsburgh

Hurt: Orlando Brown-Oklahoma

Edge Rusher:

Helped: Lorenzo Carter-Georgia

Hurt: Dorance Armstrong Jr-Kansas

Defensive Line:

Helped: Breeland Speaks-Ole Miss

Hurt: Vita Vea-Washington

Linebacker:

Helped: Shaquem Griffin-Central Florida

Hurt: Chris Worley-Ohio State

Defensive Back:

Helped: Donte Jackson-LSU

Hurt: Jordan Thomas-Oklahoma

Alright, let’s get to the Marlins.

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2017 Results:

Record: 77-85, 20 games behind Washington Nationals, 10 games behind Colorado Rockies for 2nd Wild Card Spot

Notable Offseason Additions: 2B Starlin Castro, OF Cameron Maybin, OF Lewis Brinson, RP Jumbo Diaz, OF Scott Van Slyke, IF Christhian Adames, C Bryan Holaday, Magneuris Sierra

Notable Offseason Subtractions: RF Giancarlo Stanton, CF Christian Yelich, LF Marcell Ozuna, 2B Dee Gordon, C AJ Ellis, OF Ichiro Suzuki

Best Offensive Player: C JT Realmuto

Best Pitcher: Dan Straily

Depth Chart:

C-JT Realmuto, Tomas Telis

1B-Justin Bour, Gary Cooper

2B-Starlin Castro

3B-Martin Prado

SS-JT Riddle, Miguel Rojas

LF-Derek Dietrich

CF-Lewis Brinson

RF-Cameron Maybin, Magneuris Sierra

SP-Dan Straily, Wei-Yin Chen, Jose Urena, Adam Conley, Justin Nicolino

Bullpen-Brad Ziegler (CP), Kyle Barraclough, Junichi Tazawa, Drew Steckenrider, Nick Wittgren, Brian Ellington, Sandy Alcantara

Coaching Staff-

Manager-Don Mattingly (3rd season with Marlins)

Hitting Coach-Mike Pagliarulo

Pitching Coach-Juan Nieves

1st Base Coach-Perry Hill

3rd Base Coach-Fredi Gonzalez

Bench Coach-Tim Wallach

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Shield your eyes, children. Parents, be good parents and don’t let your kids watch the Marlins this season. Don Mattingly has been put in a no-win situation and I’m surprised Derek Jeter hasn’t already sent him packing, too (could be Yankees’ honor or something). But this is far and away the least talented roster in baseball. What was once one of the most promising young rosters in baseball got completely uprooted in a matter of months, as superstar caliber players like their entire outfield of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna are all gone. I mean, my word, look at this lineup.

1. Starlin Castro-2B

2. Martin Prado-3B

3. JT Realmuto-C

4. Justin Bour-1B

5. Derek Dietrich-LF

6. Cameron Maybin-RF

7. Lewis Brinson-CF

8. JT Riddle/Miguel Rojas-SS

9. Pitcher’s Spot

Honestly if you kept their outfield from 2017, this lineup could be seen as imposing, that’s how good Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna are. But without them, there are only a few guys that can be deemed “good” and they’re not happy. Starlin Castro hasn’t played a regular season game in Miami yet and he already wants out, Realmuto wants out, pretty much the only player worth a damn that hasn’t vocally expressed his displeasure with the situation in Miami is Justin Bour. A lot of these guys would probably be in the Minor Leagues on most other teams like Cameron Maybin or JT Riddle. Though I hate to knock Maybin because he threw me a baseball once, but the fact that he’s probably the best outfielder on the team right now is alarming. Lewis Brinson is talented but he’s only played 21 career games and has a career .106 batting average. That’s your everyday centerfielder right there. Now, being one of the top prospects in baseball, he’s expected to get significantly better, but he certainly doesn’t inspire hope at the moment.

during a game  at Marlins Park on September 29, 2017 in Miami, Florida.

Dear God, I didn’t think it was possible to have a starting rotation that makes me weep for the fans, but I think the Marlins may have pulled it off. Dan Straily, who would probably be the #4 or 5 starter for most other teams, is the ace of the Marlins. Last season he went 10-9 with a 4.26 ERA and a 4.58 FIP. His best season was 2016 with the Reds when he had an ERA of 3.76 but a FIP of 4.88. Wei-Yin Chen is one of the least impressive pitchers that I’ve seen live. I saw him pitch for the Orioles once and it was the one time where I ever watched a pitcher and thought to myself “I could totally take this guy yard.” His fastball just looked so flat and easy to see, I’m not shocked that the Indians tagged him for 3 home runs that day. Granted they were all solo shots and were the only runs he allowed that day, but still. Jose Urena has some talent to him, as he had a 3.82 ERA but a 5.20 FIP and a higher walk rate of 3.39 BB/9. There is basically nothing to be excited about by this staff.

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There’s really only one guy in this Marlins bullpen that I liked going into this blog and that’s their closer Brad Ziegler and I don’t even like him in that role. Ziegler is a submarine pitcher with a vicious sinker and that makes him one of the greatest pitchers ever at forcing ground balls. In fact, Ziegler has the second highest ground ball rate of all time after Dennis Springer. But Ziegler is best used when you need to get out of a jam, like runners on first and third, one out, and you have a one-run lead. Ziegler gets a ground ball at such a high frequency that you basically have a 2 out of 3 chance (his ground ball rate) of getting that double play you need. After him, though, the Marlins bullpen does have some decent pieces but nothing too spectacular. Drew Steckenrider is far from a household name but he quietly had a 2.34 ERA and struck out over 14 batters per 9 innings in 37 appearances. I had never heard of this guy prior to writing this but I’m suddenly intrigued by him. Kyle Barraclough was a guy I’d heard of in passing and he had an ERA of 3 and struck out over 10 batters per 9. Both guys had high walk rates, but they also have swing and miss stuff and they’re surprisingly an element of the Marlins that might be worth watching this year.

Overall, the Marlins are going to suck ass. Even in a weak division like the NL East, they’re far and away the worst of the bunch. Not only is there very little talent, but the talent that they actually do have doesn’t want to be there and have publicly expressed their desire to be traded. If the Marlins somehow don’t finish with the worst record in Major League Baseball, Don Mattingly or whomever finishes the season as manager should be a candidate for NL Manager of the Year.

Projected Record: 62-100, Last in all of Major League Baseball

That record’s a bit generous but I find it insulting to a group of guys to project they’ll lose more than 100 games, so that’s my max right there. That’s going to do it for this edition of 30 Clubs in 30 Days, join me tomorrow when I discuss the Milwaukee Brewers, who made some big moves to try and gain some ground on the Cubs in the NL Central after a surprising playoff run in 2017. Let me know what you think of the Marlins’ chances in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

Derek Jeter’s Tenure as Marlins Owner is Not Off to a Great Start

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As I’m sure you’re well aware of by now, people are none too pleased about the job that Derek Jeter has been doing as Marlins owner. While there have been a lot of missteps thus far, I don’t think the criticism is totally warranted. When it was announced that Jeter was a part of a group that included Jeb Bush that would be buying the Marlins from Jeffrey Loria, people got pretty excited, as pretty much anything Jeter’s name is attached to will be great. However, the Marlins haven’t even played a game yet and he’s already come under fire for the decisions he’s made.

It all starts with the Giancarlo Stanton trade. Now yes, this was a salary dump, but there are a lot of people screaming about collusion because Jeter sent arguably the most exciting player in baseball to a team he played 20 years for and received next to nothing in return. All it cost the Yankees to acquire the NL MVP was Starlin Castro and two prospects that weren’t even highly touted in their own organization. I don’t hate the move to trade Stanton. He was coming off the best year of his career and his stock will never be higher (until he learns how easy it is to hit bombs in Yankee Stadium), plus he’s in the prime of his career, making him even more valuable. The contract was a bit of a sticky situation, however, as he’s still got 10 years and over $290 million remaining on that deal, which was the main driving force behind trying to trade him. But surely the Yankees would be able to afford it. I wouldn’t have minded the trade had the Marlins received the likes of Gleyber Torres, Estevan Florial, or Justus Sheffield. But none of them were sent. Hell, the Yankees acquired Torres from the Cubs for a half season of Aroldis Chapman! Surely the deadliest hitter in the game with 10 years of team control would reel in more than a reliever whom you’d only have for a couple months, right? Again, I get that this was a salary dump, but you do realize that prospects make dirt right? The criticisms here are totally fair.

What’s worse is that Jeter wasn’t even at the Winter Meetings to justify his trade to the other GMs. Nobody knew where he was or why he wasn’t there. That was until…

 

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photo credit: The Comeback

As you can see, Jeter attended the Monday Night Football game between the Dolphins and Patriots instead of attending the Winter Meetings. Normally I would love this move because it would tell the fans that you’re buying in to the culture of the city. However, it was so poorly timed, being that one of the most important days of the offseason were going on halfway across the country, that he got ripped to shreds on social media for it.

Then he traded Marcell Ozuna, which I didn’t have any problems with, mainly because the return they got from the Cardinals was pretty good, as they received a couple of their best prospects for a guy who could become the face of this organization. But the fact that the Marlins had already traded 3 of their best players before Christmas time (Dee Gordon to Seattle being the other) had a lot of people nervous. And that’s not just the fans, even some players as well! Centerfielder Christian Yelich and catcher JT Realmuto have both demanded trades as they don’t want to be part of a team that’s tanking. Now people have hit the panic button.

Jeter held a town hall-style meeting to allow fans to air their grievances. As you can probably guess, it didn’t go well. People started screaming and all Hell broke loose and Marlins Man gave a “do you know who I am?” to Jeter before announcing he would not be renewing his season tickets. For those who don’t know, Marlins Man is probably the most famous super fan in baseball right now, as he can often be spotted sitting behind home plate at all the big games decked out in a bright orange Marlins jersey and visor. Also, fun fact, if you search “Marlins Man” on Getty Images, you only get pictures of Ichiro.

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photo credit: Miami Herald

It’s basically the equivalent of when Fireman Ed was giving up his Jets season tickets when they were in their peak dumpster fire years. You know you’ve screwed up when a guy whose sole identity revolves around your team has forsaken you.

But it’s not like this is anything new for Marlins fans. Jeffrey Loria would screw you in a different way. For the 2012 season, the Marlins built a brand new stadium with taxpayers’ money, one that the people didn’t want, then acquired a plethora of talent like Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, and manager Ozzie Guillen. They were even going to be featured in the Starz series “The Franchise,” which was a Hard Knocks-style show that followed an MLB team for an entire season. Well by the Trade Deadline everybody had been traded because the Marlins were at the bottom of NL East, everybody was underachieving, The Franchise had been cancelled, and the Marlins were a laughingstock. So the Marlins have some experience being loathed by their fans.

Here’s what the Marlins lineup currently looks like:

1. Starlin Castro-2B

2. Martin Prado-3B

3. Christian Yelich-CF

4. Justin Bour-1B

5. JT Realmuto-C

6. JT Riddle-SS

7. Derek Dietrich-LF

8. Some Minor Leaguer-RF

9. Pitcher’s Spot

As you can see, this is a problem, especially where the outfield is concerned. Aside from Christian Yelich, there are no outfielders on the 40-man roster with big league experience. I took some liberties putting Dietrich in left field because he is a swiss army knife-type player but he is typically an infielder. As for the right fielder, there was nobody I could put in there. Maybe they could call up Magneuris Sierra, whom they acquired from the Cardinals for Ozuna. Plus, if Yelich and Realmuto are granted the trades they requested, that lineup gets even thinner. One can forgive Marlins fans for being alarmed.

It’s not uncommon for a new owner to gut his team and fill it with his guys. But just the way Jeter has been getting rid of players with minimal returns has been what has irked the Marlins faithful. But who knows? Maybe Jeter is on to something with the moves he’s made. One thing is for sure, though, if the Marlins aren’t anywhere near .500 in 2018, the torches and pitchforks will come out. What do you think of Jeter’s moves? Let me know in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10 and contribute to my Patreon.