So I’ve dodged talking about the Super Bowl long enough, I’d say. I wanted to try and avoid over-saturating my blog with Super Bowl content mainly because that’s pretty much what every other outlet is doing and I like to think some people get sick of it, because I sure as Hell do. But with the time coming up and my not really having anything to talk about, I thought it’d be interesting to take a look at some prop bets. These always intrigue me. I never play them, but I’m always fascinated by all the little things people bet on. So I’m going to try and help you guys out here by taking a look at each prop bet I find and letting you know what I think the chances are on it. These lines and prop bet ideas are all gathered from CBS Sports. There are a couple exceptions that I gathered from Sportsline. The ones I’m putting on here are the ones I’m most intrigued by out of the ones they published.
Length of Pink’s National Anthem: O/U 2 minutes
I’ve gotta imagine she goes over 2 minutes. Pink’s pretty flamboyant and I feel like she’s going to put her all into every syllable.
Pink’s Hair Color
Really? Green’s 5-1 odds? Well alright then. But based on her latest Instagram post (2 days ago, not including her #tbt), Pink is currently blonde and I’m not 100% sure how hair-dying works, but I’ve got to imagine if she were going to dye it, she probably should’ve started by now.
Will There Be a Scoring Drive that Lasts Shorter Than Pink’s Anthem?
I definitely think there will be at least one, especially considering some of the explosive receivers both teams possess. The Eagles have Torrey Smith and Nelson Agholor who do a good job of stretching the field and the Patriots have Brandin Cooks. I think at least one of these men is getting a deep ball touchdown. Unless somebody has to run the two-minute drill and score, which is something both teams do extremely well.
Bill Belichick’s Hoodie Color
It won’t be red, you can bet your family’s health and well-being on that. Belichick refuses to wear red after he did it for Super Bowl XLII. I’ve also never seen Bill wear white. I think he’s going to wear blue, to be honest, because he’s done so in each of the last two, both ending in Patriots victories. He wore grey when they lost Super Bowl XLVI. However, betting blue won’t be a very profitable bet so I think if I were to bet on this I’d do grey or avoid it altogether.
Now for actual Prop Bets that revolve around player performance.
First Half O/U: 24
The last two Super Bowls for the Patriots hovered around this line at the half. Super Bowl LI they hit it at 24 (21-3) and Super Bowl XLIX it was 28 (14-14). I think the first half is actually going to be pretty defense-heavy so I’m going to say take the under, but somebody is going to score shortly before halftime and make this interesting.
Will there be OT?
Got to go with no on this one. Super Bowl LI broke the streak of 50 consecutive Super Bowls that ended in regulation and it only went to OT because of an absurd comeback by the Patriots. I don’t think this game will get out before your bedtime.
Will there be a 2-Point Conversion?
My gut’s telling me yes. At the very least one will be attempted. However this bet is for that try being successful. In my heart of hearts I do believe that there will be a conversion. The Patriots successfully converted 2 last year and the Broncos converted one the year before on Peyton Manning’s final pass. Plus the Eagles have a bellcow in LeGarrette Blount who can bulldoze behind a strong right side of the offensive line while the Patriots have a bunch of receiving threats that excel in the short passing game.
Fourth Quarter Lead Change?
Based on how every Super Bowl in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era has gone, I have to think yes. The largest margin of victory in any of their previous 7 Super Bowl appearances was 6 and that was last year’s. The others had all been decided by either 3 or 4 points. I don’t expect this to be a whole lot different and I think there will be at least one lead change in the fourth quarter.
Total Number of Players to Attempt a Pass O/U 2.5
I’m going to say under just simply because neither team has had a non-quarterback attempt a pass all year. Though that could be because they’re saving that play so that the other team won’t be able to prepare for it, but I doubt it. The Patriots did have Julian Edelman attempt a pass to Dion Lewis shortly before their comeback started last year, but Edelman obviously tore his ACL in the preseason and won’t be available. I don’t think it’s happening this year.
Will there be a safety?
There hasn’t been a safety in the Super Bowl since the errant snap over Peyton Manning’s head to start Super Bowl XLVIII, but there have actually been quite a few safeties in Super Bowl history. I wouldn’t hold my breath on this one, though. I just don’t envision it happening. I’d have to go with no.
How will the first points be scored?
Patriots Touchdown Pass: 3/1
Patriots Field Goal: 3/1
Eagles Field Goal: 4/1
Eagles Touchdown Pass: 4/1
Patriots Rushing Touchdown: 11/2
Eagles Rushing Touchdown: 6/1
Eagles Defensive or ST Touchdown: 16/1
Patriots Defensive or ST Touchdown: 16/1
Eagles Safety: 22/1
Patriots Safety: 22/1
My gut is telling me Eagles field goal and I think they’re going to have the ball to open the game, they’re going to drive to about the Patriots’ 30, then they’re going to stall and Jake Elliott hits a 48-yarder that hugs the goal post a little bit. For reference, though, here’s how the last 5 Super Bowls scoring started: Falcons TD rush, Broncos FG, Patriots TD pass, Seahawks safety, Ravens TD pass.
Who Scores the First TD?
Rob Gronkowski (NE): 15/2
Brandin Cooks (NE): 9/1
Danny Amendola (NE): 10/1
Zach Ertz (PHI): 10/1
Dion Lewis (NE): 10/1
Jay Ajayi (PHI): 12/1
Alshon Jeffrey (PHI): 12/1
LeGarrette Blount (PHI): 14/1
Rex Burkhead (NE): 14/1
Chris Hogan (NE): 14/1
James White (NE): 14/1
Nelson Agholor (PHI): 16/1
Corey Clement (PHI): 18/1
Torrey Smith (PHI): 18/1
Tom Brady (NE): 25/1
Nick Foles (PHI): 33/1
Any Other Player: 4/1
No Touchdowns: 75/1
If you bet no TD’s will be scored, you really are the type that wants to see the world burn. However my money’s on Danny Amendola. Now yes, Rob Gronkowski was cleared to play through concussion protocol, which makes him the odds on favorite. But I think the Eagles are going to dedicate a lot to stopping him and the Eagles corners do NOT match up well with Amendola. I think he’s not only going to have a big game, but he’s going to be the first to score.
Color of Liquid Dumped on Winning Coach
Interesting thing to note here, the Patriots did not give Belichick the gatorade bath last year, probably because nobody thought to after the amazing comeback they had just pulled off. But I have a gut feeling it’s going to be water this year. Not based on anything I know, but it’s a gut feeling.
Final O/U: 48
I’m taking the over in this one, but I don’t think it’ll be by much. I think the first team to 28 will win this game. Sure both teams are top 5 in scoring defense, but they’re also top 5 in scoring offense. Besides, of the last 5 Super Bowls, only Super Bowl L didn’t crack the 48-point threshold and that was a game between two excellent defenses with inconsistent offenses in the Broncos and Panthers.
Now for some other weird prop bets that CBS Sports has on their page.
Which Will Be Higher?
Minnesota’s Temperature at Kickoff -150
Total Points Scored in the First Quarter +110
Looking at the weather app on my iPhone, it’s predicting that the temperature in Minneapolis will reach a high of 7 degrees. I’ve got to take first quarter points.
Number of Times Donald Trump Tweets During the Game O/U 2.5
This one has me nervous. I don’t think Trump will watch the game to promote his “NFL’s ratings are down” agenda so I doubt anything is going to come about the game. I’m actually going to go with the under right now, but keep your eye on the political landscape during pregame or how any of the various investigations are going.
Justin Timberlake’s First Song During the Halftime Show
Can’t Stop The Feeling! +150
Rock Your Body +400
Cry Me A River +500
True Colors +800
Love Never Felt So Good +900
What Goes Around…Comes Around +1000
Suit & Tie +1500
Any Other Song +200
It pains me to say it but I missed the incident from last time Timberlake did the Halftime show. I was playing with my Yu-Gi-Oh! cards instead because I didn’t care about a halftime show and didn’t think I’d miss anything. Then my brother Ben (who was 6 at the time) rushed in to tell me that Janet Jackson’s boob came out. My 7 year-old self didn’t believe him for the longest time. But anyway, I think Timberlake is going to open with Sexyback to really get the crowd going from the get-go and I think he’s going to close out with Rock Your Body as a subtle jab at himself for the incident from 14 years ago. Wonder if Janet Jackson will appear for that.
Number of Times Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth say “Dynasty” O/U 2.5
I’m going to say over, especially if the Patriots get out to an early lead or build to double-digits.
Number of Anheuser-Busch Commercials Airing O/U 4.5
“Dilly Dilly” is sweeping the nation, but I wonder if it would count if a player did a Budweiser plug postgame like Peyton Manning did in Super Bowl L. This is a tough line. I want to take the over but I feel like Budweiser will only do the dilly dilly commercials just once or twice. However, the prop is Anheuser-Busch which means that Michelob, Natural Ice, Busch, Shock Top, Rolling Rock, etc all count towards their total. So with that I think I am going to take the over.
Will Tom Brady be Wearing a Bandage on his Right Hand
I don’t think he will. It will have been almost 3 weeks since the accident in practice where Brady suffered the cut to his throwing hand. I had 7 stitches on my middle finger in high school after slicing it open on a box cutter and I stopped wearing anything protective on it after about 8 days. Brady had 12 on his hand almost 3 weeks ago. I’m going to say he doesn’t wear any sort of bandage.
That’s going to do it for my Super Bowl prop bets. Let me know what you think or any other prop bets that you’ve seen that you want my thoughts on in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10. Also, if you’re a loser and have nothing to do on a Friday night, you can tune in to BTN Plus and watch Indiana vs Illinois wrestling at 7pm. Yours truly will be on the call. I may or may not be going solo on this one because my broadcast partner dropped out and I haven’t been notified of any potential replacement as of this writing.