Each Team’s Biggest Draft Bust in the 21st Century

We rave about these prospects as “can’t miss” or “once in a lifetime” type players come Draft season. But every year, without fail, somebody taken in the first round fails to live up to expectations. I’m going to take a look at each team’s biggest blunder since 2000 to remind everyone to humble themselves when it comes to getting excited about your team’s first round pick. Some things to take note of when it comes to my rules for this list: First rounders only, the 2017 draft class is excluded since we really don’t know shit about them yet (Hell, Jared Goff was looking like a colossal bust after his first season. Look what happened there), and we are only considering a player’s success with the team that drafted them. So for example, Cedric Benson is a bust candidate even though he had a successful stint with the Bengals. He was drafted by the Bears, where he was awful. Draft position also matters here. The first overall pick’s bust status is going to weigh more than the 32nd overall pick’s status, even if the 32nd pick was a way worse player. I’ll also be noting some players that played the same position as the bust in question that were taken later who had much more successful careers to add salt to the wound.

Cleveland Browns-Courtney Brown-EDGE-Penn State (1st Overall in 2000)

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The first pick of the millennium, Brown was a freak of nature athlete and, to be fair to the Browns, judging by the body of work at Penn State and his physical traits, it’s really hard to blame them for taking Brown. He was basically Myles Garrett before Myles Garrett. While Garrett looks like a budding star if he can stay healthy, Brown notched just 17 sacks in his 5 years with the Browns, never eclipsing 4.5 in a season. There were definitely worse players the Browns have taken (probably the most misses in the NFL since their revival in 1999), but Brown was the only one that went first overall.

Who they could’ve had: John Abraham-South Carolina, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila-San Diego State

New York Giants-Ereck Flowers-OT-Miami (FL) (9th Overall in 2015)

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Flowers’ huge frame made him enticing to the Giants, however he’s been one of the worst tackles in the game, as he was rushed into the starting role before he was ready and it showed. Every Giants fan I know consistently calls for his head and it doesn’t help him that the Giants just signed Nate Solder to a huge contract.

Who they could’ve had: Andrus Peat-Stanford, DJ Humphries-Florida

New York Jets-Vernon Gholston-EDGE-Ohio State (6th Overall in 2008)

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Gholston was a genetic freak but that didn’t translate whatsoever to the NFL, as he recorded as many sacks as I did in the NFL: Zero (I had 2 sacks in high school but I guess that doesn’t count). Anytime I see a rookie get their first NFL sack, I think to myself “better pick than Gholston.”

Who they could’ve had: Calais Campbell-Miami (FL), William Hayes-Winston-Salem State, Erik Walden-Middle Tennessee State, Cliff Avril-Purdue

Houston Texans-Travis Johnson-DL-Florida State (16th Overall in 2005)

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A lot of people will want to say David Carr for this pick, but to be fair to the guy, he played behind what was statistically the worst offensive line of all time. Carr got sacked an NFL record 76 times as a rookie and that destroyed his confidence and he never recovered. Travis Johnson was an okay player for the Texans, but he wasn’t worth the 16th overall pick. He was out of the league by 2011. There really aren’t that many busts in the Texans’ short history (since 2002).

Who they could’ve had: Jonathan Babineaux-Iowa

Denver Broncos-Paxton Lynch-QB-Memphis (26th Overall in 2016)

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You know it’s bad when you can’t beat out the 7th rounder your team took the year before for the starting job. We knew Lynch would need time to develop, but even now that he has an opportunity, the Broncos are already looking to move on. He’s only made 4 starts in his NFL career and has thrown just 4 TD’s.

Who they could’ve had: Jacoby Brissett-North Carolina State, Dak Prescott-Mississippi State

Indianapolis Colts-Bjoern Werner-EDGE-Florida State (24th Overall in 2013)

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Werner was this big European guy that everybody was foaming at the mouth over with his potential. However he lasted just 3 NFL seasons and recorded just 6.5 sacks in only 16 starts before getting cut by the Colts. He was not picked up elsewhere.

Who they could’ve had: Alex Okafor-Texas, William Gholston-Michigan State

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Mark Barron-S-Alabama (7th Overall in 2012)

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Barron was a nightmare in coverage with the Buccaneers and lasted just 2 and a half seasons in Tampa before being shipped to the Rams. Since joining the Rams, though, they moved him to linebacker and he has been decent in his new role. At bare minimum he starts for one of the deadliest defenses in the league.

Who they could’ve had: Harrison Smith-Notre Dame, Coty Sensabaugh-Clemson, Robert Blanton-Notre Dame, George Iloka-Boise State

Chicago Bears-Kevin White-WR-West Virginia (7th Overall in 2015)

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I hate calling guys who can’t stay healthy “busts” because it’s not always their fault, but White has played just 5 games since being the 7th overall pick in 2015. It’s just one serious injury after another with this guy. It’s hard to overlook.

Who they could’ve had: DeVante Parker-Louisville, Nelson Agholor-USC, Devin Funchess-Michigan, Tyler Lockett-Kansas State, Jamison Crowder-Duke, Stefon Diggs-Maryland

San Francisco 49ers-AJ Jenkins-WR-Illinois (30th Overall in 2012)

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I was scratching my head when the 49ers made this pick (I had Jenkins as a 4th rounder) and he did nothing to dispel my confusions. Jenkins lasted just 1 year with the 49ers before being traded to the Chiefs. He was out of the league by 2015 with just 17 catches and 223 career receiving yards to his name.

Who they could’ve had: Alshon Jeffery-South Carolina, Mohamed Sanu-Rutgers, TY Hilton-FIU, Travis Benjamin-Miami (FL), Marvin Jones-California, Rishard Matthews-Nevada

Oakland Raiders-Jamarcus Russell-QB-LSU (1st Overall in 2007)

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Russell was a can’t miss quarterback prospect. Then he held out almost his entire rookie season because he wanted a bigger contract, went 7-18 as a starter, ballooned to 300 pounds, and was out of the league by 2010. He’s considered one of the biggest draft busts of all time, certainly the biggest of this millennium.

Who they could’ve had: Drew Stanton-Michigan State, Trent Edwards-Stanford (2007 was a REALLY bad year to pick a quarterback)

Miami Dolphins-Dion Jordan-EDGE-Oregon (3rd Overall in 2013)

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Issues with drugs caused Jordan to miss two entire seasons due to suspension. He only played 2 years with the Dolphins and has 1 career start. Currently a member of the Seahawks, he registered 4 sacks in 5 games last season so perhaps he’s turning a corner. But after the Dolphins traded up 9 spots to get him, they have to be fuming with the results they got.

Who they could’ve had: Ziggy Ansah-BYU, see Bjoern Werner’s section

Buffalo Bills-Aaron Maybin-EDGE-Penn State (11th Overall in 2009)

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Maybin had 6 career sacks and they were all for the division rival Jets in 2011. Maybin lasted just 2 years in Buffalo and was out of the league by 2013.

Who they could’ve had: Brian Orakpo-Texas, Clay Matthews-USC, Connor Barwin-Cincinnati, Paul Kruger-Utah, Michael Johnson-Georgia Tech

Washington Redskins-Rod Gardner-WR-Clemson (15th Overall in 2001)

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This was almost Patrick Ramsey, but Ramsey was taken 32nd in 2002 while Gardner went 15th in 2001 so Gardner edges him out. Gardner got off to a decent start, posting a 1000 yard season his second year, but he never eclipsed 700 again and was out of the league by 2007.

Who they could’ve had: Santana Moss-Miami (FL), Reggie Wayne-Miami (FL), Chad Johnson-Oregon State, Chris Chambers-Wisconsin, Steve Smith-Utah, TJ Houshmandzadeh-Oregon State

Green Bay Packers-Jamal Reynolds-EDGE-Florida State (10th Overall in 2001)

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Reynolds played just 3 seasons and had a grand total of 3 sacks in his career. Really can’t say much about his career because there was hardly anything to speak of. Really bad look for the tenth pick in the draft.

Who they could’ve had: Kyle Vanden Bosch-Nebraska, Aaron Schobel-TCU, Derrick Burgess-Ole Miss, Reggie Hayward-Iowa State,

Arizona Cardinals-Matt Leinart-QB-USC (10th Overall in 2006)

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It was hard to choose between Leinart and Jonathan Cooper (when you miss on a guard at #7 overall, you know you messed up). But the Cardinals have been scared to take a quarterback in the first round ever since the former Heisman Trophy winner, so he’s going to get the nod.

Who they could’ve had: Jay Cutler-Vanderbilt, Kellen Clemens-Oregon, Tarvaris Jackson-Alabama State, Charlie Whitehurst-Clemson

Baltimore Ravens-Breshad Perriman-WR-Central Florida (26th Overall in 2015)

at Nissan Stadium on November 5, 2017 in Nashville, Tennessee.

Similar situation with Perriman as Kevin White with the Bears. He has a lot of talent and is very fast for his size, but health has been a major issue. Perriman’s only made 4 starts and has just 43 catches in his two years of actually playing (2016 and 2017, he missed his rookie year).

Who they could’ve had: see Kevin White

Los Angeles Chargers-Larry English-EDGE-Northern Illinois (16th Overall in 2009)

at Qualcomm Stadium on August 8, 2013 in San Diego, California.

12 career sacks in 7 NFL seasons will not get the job done. English never had more than 3 sacks in a season and never started more than 5 games.

Who they could’ve had: see Aaron Maybin

Seattle Seahawks-Aaron Curry-LB-Wake Forest (4th Overall in 2009)

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Curry was considered the safest prospect in the class, however he just couldn’t figure things out in the NFL. He has since become a college coach at Charlotte.

Who they could’ve had: Brian Cushing-USC, James Laurinaitis-Ohio State, Rey Maualuga-USC, DeAndre Levy-Wisconsin

Dallas Cowboys-Bobby Carpenter-LB-Ohio State (18th Overall in 2006)

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A solid special teamer, but you don’t take a special teamer in the first round. Carpenter never made more than 3 starts in a season.

Who they could’ve had: DeMeco Ryans-Alabama, D’Qwell Jackson-Maryland, Stephen Tulloch-North Carolina State

Detroit Lions-Charles Rogers-WR-Michigan State (2nd Overall in 2003)

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Arguably the biggest wide receiver bust of all time, Rogers lasted just 3 seasons in the NFL and had a grand total of 440 yards in 15 games played.

Who they could’ve had: Andre Johnson-Miami (FL), Anquan Boldin-Florida State, Nate Burleson-Nevada, Brandon Lloyd-Illinois

Kansas City Chiefs-Glenn Dorsey-DL-LSU (5th Overall in 2008)

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Not gonna’ lie, I liked Dorsey so much in college that I bought his Chiefs jersey before his first NFL game. But he never amounted to anything with the Chiefs. He became a pretty good nose tackle with the 49ers, though.

Who they could’ve had: Pat Sims-Auburn, Red Bryant-Texas A&M, Ahtyba Rubin-Iowa State

Cincinnati Bengals-Peter Warrick-WR-Florida State (4th Overall in 2000)

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Warrick never managed more than 819 yards in a season, which wouldn’t be awful if he weren’t the 4th overall pick. Had he been a 4th rounder, we’d be considering him a steal. However, that production just won’t cut it for the value.

Who they could’ve had: Plaxico Burress-Michigan State, Laveraneus Coles-Florida State, Darrell Jackson-Florida

Los Angeles Rams-Jason Smith-OT-Baylor (2nd Overall in 2009)

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This very easily could’ve been Greg Robinson, as the credentials (tackle that was the 2nd overall pick) are basically identical. But Smith’s going to get the nod on the basis that he got beat out by the tackle the Rams took in the second round of the same draft (Indiana’s Rodger Saffold, who is still with the team to this day as a guard).

Who they could’ve had: Andre Smith-Alabama, Eugene Monroe-Virginia, Michael Oher-Ole Miss, Sebastian Vollmer-Houston

Carolina Panthers-Jeff Otah-OT-Pittsburgh (19th Overall in 2008)

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Very few busts for the Panthers, giving Otah the nod. Otah was decent when healthy, however he played just 29 games in his 4-year career and was out of the league by 2012.

Who they could’ve had: Duane Brown-Virginia Tech, King Dunlap-Auburn, Geoff Schwartz-Oregon

Tennessee Titans-Jake Locker-QB-Washington (8th Overall in 2011)

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Locker got off to a promising start, as he was pretty good in his first game, but he never got better. It’s also worth mentioning that all 7 guys picked ahead of him made the Pro Bowl in what was an absolutely stacked 2011 class. Locker retired after 4 seasons.

Who they could’ve had: Andy Dalton-TCU, Colin Kaepernick-Nevada, Tyrod Taylor-Virginia Tech

Atlanta Falcons-Jamaal Anderson-EDGE-Arkansas (8th Overall in 2007)

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Anderson registered just 7.5 career sacks, never more than 3 in a season, and was out of the league by 2013.

Who they could’ve had: Anthony Spencer-Purdue, Lamarr Woodley-Michigan, Charles Johnson-Georgia, Brian Robison-Texas

New Orleans Saints-Johnathan Sullivan-DL-Georgia (6th Overall in 2003)

2003 New Orleans Saints Headshots

All Images Copyright Michael C. Hebert

Sullivan played just 4 years in the NFL, 3 with the Saints, started 12 games as a rookie but 4 the rest of his career. He was out of the league by 2007.

Who they could’ve had: Kevin Williams-Oklahoma State

Pittsburgh Steelers-Jarvis Jones-EDGE-Georgia (19th Overall in 2013)

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6 career sacks for a guy who at one point in the draft process was being slated as the #1 overall pick. He’s currently a member of the Arizona Cardinals but hasn’t played a snap for them.

Who they could’ve had: see Dion Jordan

Jacksonville Jaguars-Luke Joeckel-OT-Texas A&M (2nd Overall in 2013)

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There were a lot of guys that were really deserving but Joeckel is going to win out because he was taken 2nd overall. Joeckel has been a turnstyle on the offensive line and is currently a member of the Seattle Seahawks, starting 11 games at guard for arguably the NFL’s worst offensive line.

Who they could’ve had: Lane Johnson-Oklahoma, Justin Pugh-Syracuse, Terron Armstead-Arkansas-Pine Bluff, David Bakhtiari-Colorado, Ricky Wagner-Wisconsin

Minnesota Vikings-Troy Williamson-WR-South Carolina (7th Overall in 2005)

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Williamson was an absolute freak at the Combine, but those skills never translated to the NFL. He never had more than 455 yards in a season and was out of the league by 2010.

Who they could’ve had: Roddy White-UAB, Vincent Jackson-Northern Colorado

New England Patriots-Dominique Easley-DL-Florida (29th Overall in 2014)

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Easley’s tenure in New England lasted just 2 seasons before he was traded to the Rams after numerous injuries and what many considered to be a “cancerous” personality in the locker room. It didn’t help that he only started 3 games for the Patriots.

Who they could’ve had: Timmy Jernigan-Florida State, Beau Allen-Wisconsin

Philadelphia Eagles-Danny Watkins-OG-Baylor (23rd Overall in 2011)

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Watkins played just 2 seasons with the Eagles before he retired to become a firefighter. Never made a huge impact when he was on the field either.

Who they could’ve had: Clint Boling-Georgia, Daniel Kilgore-Appalachian State

There are going to be busts in every draft, however there are also steals, guys who slip through the cracks and outperform their draft slot. Tomorrow I’m going to do something similar and pick out each team’s best draft steal since 2000. Let me know what you think of these draft busts in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

NFL Draft Primer

So I’m taking a brief break from my hiatus. This will be the one blog I post before one of my papers is done, though. My Hulk Hogan paper is most of the way done and the due date got pushed back a couple days so I feel comfortable briefly getting back to the blog for today. I won’t be regularly posting again until I’m done with both papers, however. I’ve got an interview for my other paper set up for Wednesday, though. He’s a guy who gives great insight so hopefully his interview will write a large chunk of my paper for me. So anyways, with the blog, the original plan with this week’s Draft thing was going to be just a Big Board, however I thought about it and I think I want to do a little bit more. Basically superlative stuff that will lead into the Big Board. I think that would be a little more interesting than just ranking 50 prospects with no explanations. So let’s get to the Superlatives. The one superlative I won’t do is “best prospect” because that would spoil my Big Board rankings.

Most NFL-Ready Quarterback: Josh Rosen-UCLA

Rosen is the one quarterback I’d be comfortable with starting Day 1. He does everything well on the field. The complaints about him are mainly questions about his love of football, but I doubt that it’s as profound as people are making it out to be. He’s just a guy who has lots of interests, football being one of them. He’s about as good a quarterback prospect as I’ve seen since Jameis Winston and Rosen doesn’t have the off-field baggage the former Florida State Heisman winner had.

Prospect I Just Don’t Understand the Hype For: Vita Vea-DL-Washington

Vita Vea is huge (6’5 340 pounds) and a really good athlete for his size. But every time I watch footage of him to try and understand why scouts love his game so much, I leave just as confused as before. Yeah he clogs space, but his get-off is so slow that any quality NFL offensive lineman is going to get the edge on him. He also kind of just plays patty-cake with offensive linemen when he does eventually get off the ball. Granted, he is my #2 interior defensive lineman, but that’s mainly because I do see potential with him. If he can work on his reaction to the snap, then I think he could be a beast and be impossible to run on.

Prospect I Like More Than Other People Do: Deshon Elliott-S-Texas

Elliott’s a guy that a lot of people have going in the third or fourth round of this year’s draft. I think he’s a high second-rounder, maybe even late-one if my defense needs a centerfielder-type safety. His instincts are really impressive to me and he always seems to be around the football, as he takes good routes to the ball-carrier. My one issue with him is that he looks like he lacks confidence as a tackler. He’ll make the tackle, but he seems hesitant to shoot the gap and deliver the hit. But he is as good a ball-hawk as there is in the nation. Just watch the USC game. He seemed to have Sam Darnold’s number all night. And one thing to note about guys that I like more than others. In the past, that honor has been held by the likes of Keenan Allen, Justin Houston, and Alex Collins. Just saying.

Most Impressive Prospect: Shaquem Griffin-LB-Central Florida

It kills me that I haven’t gotten a real chance to blog about this dude yet because he really is an inspirational story. He had to get his hand amputated when he was young due to a birth defect and for a lot of people, that would be the end of their usefulness. But Griffin instead became one of the top linebackers in the country and absolutely blew up the NFL Scouting Combine. He needed to use a prosthetic hand so that he could do the bench press, but he then went on to do 20 reps at 225 pounds. I have 2 perfectly functioning hands and the best I’ve done on the bench press is 5 reps at 165 pounds. Oh and there’s the whole thing about how he ran the fastest 40-yard dash ever recorded by a linebacker at 4.38. I watched his Auburn tape after this and he pretty much took over that game. He’s so quick that he can make offensive linemen look really stupid when he’s rushing the passer. He’d probably be a top-5 pick if he had two hands based on the tape I’ve seen and his Combine performance. But the guy has 4 career interceptions for God’s sake. I really do think he could be the steal of the Draft.

Most Intriguing Prospect: DJ Chark-WR-LSU

I had heard nothing about this guy until the Combine. Then he measured at 6’4 and ran the fastest 40-yard dash at 4.34. Those are Calvin Johnson-like measurables. However his production at LSU was limited. He did have over 800 yards as a senior but poor quarterback play I think hindered his ability to reach his potential. He could be one of those lesser-known guys that really blows up once he hits the NFL.

And now, on to the Big Board.

50. Shaquem Griffin-LB-Central Florida

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49. Courtland Sutton-WR-SMU

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48. James Daniels-C-Iowa

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47. Harrison Phillips-DL-Stanford

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46. Donte Jackson-CB-LSU

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45. Mason Rudolph-QB-Oklahoma State

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44. Ronald Jones II-RB-USC

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43. Mike Gesicki-TE-Penn State

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42. Uchenna Nwosu-EDGE-USC

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41. Deshon Elliott-S-Texas

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40. Taven Bryan-DL-Florida

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39. Maurice Hurst-DL-Michigan

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38. Carlton Davis-CB-Auburn

at Jordan Hare Stadium on November 25, 2017 in Auburn, Alabama.

37. Sam Hubbard-EDGE-Ohio State

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36. Will Hernandez-OG-UTEP

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35. Brian O’Neill-OT-Pittsburgh

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34. Derrius Guice-RB-LSU

at Neyland Stadium on November 18, 2017 in Knoxville, Tennessee.

33. Mike Hughes-CB-Central Florida

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32. Malik Jefferson-LB-Texas

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31. Jaire Alexander-CB-Louisville

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30. Ronnie Harrison-S-Alabama

at Jordan Hare Stadium on November 25, 2017 in Auburn, Alabama.

29. Dallas Goedert-TE-South Dakota State

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28. Isaiah Wynn-OG-Georgia

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27. Leighton Vander Esch-LB-Boise State

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26. DJ Moore-WR-Maryland

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25. Justin Reid-S-Stanford

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24. Isaiah Oliver-CB-Colorado

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23. Rashaan Evans-LB-Alabama 

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22. Kolton Miller-OT-UCLA

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21. Mike McGlinchey-OT-Notre Dame

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20. Josh Jackson-CB-Iowa

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19. Harold Landry-EDGE-Boston College

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18. Vita Vea-DL-Washington

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17. Da’Ron Payne-DL-Alabama

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16. Josh Allen-QB-Wyoming

during the first half of a game on December 21, 2016 in San Diego, California.

15. Christian Kirk-WR-Texas A&M

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14. Connor Williams-OT-Texas

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13. Baker Mayfield-QB-Oklahoma

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12. Derwin James-S-Florida State

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11. Calvin Ridley-WR-Alabama

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10. Roquan Smith-LB-Georgia

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9. Sam Darnold-QB-USC

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8. Josh Rosen-QB-UCLA

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7. Marcus Davenport-EDGE-UTSA

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6. Tremaine Edmunds-LB-Virginia Tech

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5. Quenton Nelson-OG-Notre Dame

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4. Denzel Ward-CB-Ohio State

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3. Minkah Fitzpatrick-S-Alabama

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2. Bradley Chubb-EDGE-North Carolina State

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1. Saquon Barkley-RB-Penn State

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So that’s it for today’s blog. Again, I won’t be posting consistently until my papers are done. But I will guarantee that I will have my mock draft ready for next Thursday’s event. Let me know what you think of the primer in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

2018 NFL Draft Positional Rankings

With the 2018 NFL Draft just a couple weeks away, I thought I’d do things a little different. The week of the Draft (more specifically, April 26) I will have my final Mock Draft published. The week before, I’ll have my final Big Board. This week, as you can see because you’re reading it, we’ve got my positional rankings. These rankings are based on my personal feelings about each prospect. I haven’t gotten to watch film on all of them so there are a bunch that will be there based on reports I’ve read and other rankings I’ve seen. These rankings also won’t be reflective about where I think they’ll go in the Draft, as team fits and needs will play a factor in that. However, they will somewhat reflect my Big Board. So without further ado, let’s get to the positional rankings.

Quarterback

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1. Josh Rosen-UCLA

2. Sam Darnold-USC

3. Baker Mayfield-Oklahoma

4. Josh Allen-Wyoming

5. Mason Rudolph-Oklahoma State

6. Lamar Jackson-Louisville

7. Luke Falk-Washington State

8. Mike White-Western Kentucky

9. Kyle Lauletta-Richmond

10. Logan Woodside-Toledo

Runningback

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1. Saquon Barkley-Penn State

2. Derrius Guice-LSU

3. Ronald Jones II-USC

4. Sony Michel-Georgia

5. Nick Chubb-Georgia

6. Rashaad Penny-San Diego State

7. Nyheim Hines-North Carolina State

8. Bo Scarbrough-Alabama

9. Royce Freeman-Oregon

10. Kerryon Johnson-Auburn

Wide Receiver

at Bryant-Denny Stadium on September 16, 2017 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

1. Calvin Ridley-Alabama

2. Christian Kirk-Texas A&M

3. DJ Moore-Maryland

4. Courtland Sutton-SMU

5. DJ Chark-LSU

6. Anthony Miller-Memphis

7. James Washington-Oklahoma State

8. Tre’Quan Smith-Central Florida

9. Jaleel Scott-New Mexico State

10. Dante Pettis-Washington

Tight End

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1. Dallas Goedert-South Dakota State

2. Mike Gesicki-Penn State

3. Hayden Hurst-South Carolina

4. Ian Thomas-Indiana

5. Mark Andrews-Oklahoma

6. Troy Fumagalli-Wisconsin

7. Durham Smythe-Notre Dame

8. Dalton Schultz-Stanford

9. Jaylen Samuels-North Carolina State

10. Tyler Conklin-Central Michigan

Offensive Tackle

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1. Connor Williams-Texas

2. Mike McGlinchey-Notre Dame

3. Kolton Miller-UCLA

4. Brian O’Neill-Pittsburgh

5. Tyrell Crosby-Oregon

6. Jamarco Jones-Ohio State

7. Geron Christian-Louisville

8. Martinas Rankin-Mississippi State

9. Orlando Brown-Oklahoma

10. Chukwuma Okorafor-Western Michigan

Offensive Guard

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1. Quenton Nelson-Notre Dame

2. Isaiah Wynn-Georgia

3. Will Hernandez-UTEP

4. Braden Smith-Auburn

5. Wyatt Teller-Virginia Tech

6. Tyrone Crowder-Clemson

7. Sean Welsh-Iowa

8. Taylor Hearn-Clemson

9. Colby Gossett-Appalachian State

10. Sam Jones-Arizona State

Center

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1. James Daniels-Iowa

2. Billy Price-Ohio State

3. Frank Ragnow-Arkansas

4. Bradley Bozeman-Alabama

5. Mason Cole-Michigan

6. Will Clapp-LSU

7. Austin Corbett-Nevada

8. Brian Allen-Michigan State

9. Scott Quessenberry-UCLA

10. Coleman Shelton-Washington

Edge Rusher

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1. Bradley Chubb-North Carolina State

2. Marcus Davenport-UTSA

3. Harold Landry-Boston College

4. Sam Hubbard-Ohio State

5. Uchenna Nwosu-USC

6. Lorenzo Carter-Georgia

7. Josh Sweat-Florida State

8. Arden Key-LSU

9. Dorance Armstrong Jr-Kansas

10. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo-Oklahoma

Defensive Line

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1. Da’Ron Payne-Alabama

2. Vita Vea-Washington

3. Maurice Hurst-Michigan

4. Taven Bryan-Florida

5. Harrison Phillips-Stanford

6. Rasheem Green-USC

7. BJ Hill-North Carolina State

8. Tim Settle-Virginia Tech

9. Derrick Nnadi-Florida State

10. Will Geary-Kansas State

Linebacker

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1. Tremaine Edmunds-Virginia Tech

2. Roquan Smith-Georgia

3. Rashaan Evans-Alabama

4. Leighton Vander Esch-Boise State

5. Malik Jefferson-Texas

6. Shaquem Griffin-Central Florida

7. Josey Jewell-Iowa

8. Jerome Baker-Ohio State

9. Tegray Scales-Indiana

10. Micah Kiser-Virginia

Cornerback

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1. Denzel Ward-Ohio State

2. Josh Jackson-Iowa

3. Isaiah Oliver-Colorado

4. Jaire Alexander-Louisville

5. Mike Hughes-Central Florida

6. Carlton Davis-Auburn

7. Donte Jackson-LSU

8. Duke Dawson-Florida

9. MJ Stewart-North Carolina

10. Anthony Averett-Alabama

Safety

Alabama at Vanderbilt

1. Minkah Fitzpatrick-Alabama

2. Derwin James-Florida State

3. Justin Reid-Stanford

4. Ronnie Harrison-Alabama

5. Deshon Elliott-Texas

6. Jessie Bates III-Wake Forest

7. Jordan Whitehead-Pittsburgh

8. Quin Blanding-Virginia

9. Terrell Edmunds-Virginia Tech

10. Marcus Allen-Penn State

Those are my positional rankings for the 2018 NFL Draft class. Let me know what you think of them in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

The Quarterbacks of the 2018 NFL Draft Class

As much as people like to say that the 2018 draft class is the weakest since 2013 (which it kind of is), there is still at least one redeeming factor: the quarterback class. I think this group has the potential to be as good, if not better, than the 2012 group that saw the likes of Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, and Robert Griffin III (for one season) emerge. I’m going to go through a few guys that I like that have the potential to go in the first round. These aren’t necessarily rankings as much as they are just going down the list of guys and saying what I like and don’t like about them and what type of future I see in them.

Josh Allen-Wyoming

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So far, for the underclassman quarterbacks, Allen is the only one who has declared for the Draft. There were talks that he could’ve come out last year and potentially been a high pick, but he elected to return to school to develop, which I thought was a smart move. However his season didn’t go that great, though a bum shoulder can certainly be a contributing factor. But he did deliver his best performance of the 2017 season in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (what a stupid fucking name) yesterday against Central Michigan. He didn’t throw the ball much, only 11 completions on 19 attempts, but he made the most of his throws, including 3 touchdowns in the first quarter. Wyoming ran the ball a TON in that game (42 times) but it was what they needed as they scored an easy victory over the Chippewas.

Strengths: Size, Arm, Mobility

Just look at this throw from Allen as you try not to vomit from looking at the uniform/field combinations.

That, folks, is what we call a laser. Allen has an absolute cannon and as you saw right up there, is accurate enough to squeeze the ball into tight spaces. He’s got the prototypical size you look for in a QB, as he stands at 6’5 233 pounds, which puts him at about the same size as Carson Wentz. He’s also deceptively quick for a guy his size, as Wyoming would often have him running the football, which he did as many as 18 times in a game this season.

Weaknesses: Level of Competition, Poor Showings Against Power-5 Teams, Health

As far as physical traits go, Allen is about as perfect a specimen as you could ask for. It’s the other stuff that might make you nervous. He played in a very weak conference in the Mountain West and the Cowboys couldn’t even win it, as they went 7-5 prior to their bowl win. He also had a chance to show what he could do against tougher competition like Iowa and Oregon, but both games were disasters for him, as he combined to go 32-64 (50% completions), 238 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. That’s just awful. To be fair to Allen, the talent around him is pretty bad, so perhaps he can be forgiven for those showings, but for being as highly touted a quarterback as he is, he needs to be able to elevate the play of his teammates. These aren’t fair comparisons to make, I know, but you see guys like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers make their teammates significantly better by just being on the field. I don’t see that from Allen. Health is also a concern, as he missed the final two games of the regular season while nursing that bum shoulder. He also missed basically all of his 2015 season with a broken clavicle, a bone located in the shoulder region.

Draft Thoughts:¬†I wouldn’t draft Allen in the first round unless I had a veteran who was on the way out that he could sit behind and not only learn from, but adapt to the higher level of competition as well as a strong supporting cast around him. This kid has all the ability in the world but he really hasn’t shown it to the extent that one would think of with a kid who has been in the discussion for number 1 overall pick. Some potential landing spots could be the Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Giants, and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pro Comparison: 

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Carson Wentz. Both came from small schools where they played against inferior competition but showcased some high level skills and prototypical measurables that get scouts excited.

 

Sam Darnold-USC

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Before the season began, Darnold was the consensus number 1 overall pick in the Draft. He had won the starting job for USC midseason and led the Trojans on an absolute tear en route to a Rose Bowl victory over Penn State. However, his encore left a lot to be desired. He struggled MIGHTILY with turnovers this season, leading all players in that category, whether it be interceptions or fumbles. Darnold’s throwing motion also became widely criticized as being “funky.” Nonetheless, he showed some really good things as well, such as his ability to make big time throws and great mobility.

Strengths: Size, Arm, Mobility, Elevating Teammates, Winner

When Darnold took over the starting job in 2016, USC was 1-3 and head coach Clay Helton’s job was in SERIOUS danger. Once Darnold took over for Max Browne, however, USC’s fortunes flipped and they didn’t lose another game the rest of the season. He’s got excellent arm strength and can put balls in spots that a lot of quarterbacks can’t. I watched a couple of games this year and a few of his 12 interceptions were the result of his receivers dropping the ball and it landing in a defender’s arms. I think Darnold really missed Juju Smith-Schuster this past year because the only quality receiver on the Trojans was Deontay Burnett and he’s a marginal NFL prospect at this stage. This is also something Darnold does that Allen doesn’t: he makes his teammates better. Guys like Burnett really aren’t that great of talent, but they perform beyond their talent because Darnold gives them the opportunity to make plays with where he puts the ball at times. Also has very good footwork in the pocket, as he’s always in a position to scurry away from the rush when needed.

Weaknesses: Delivery, Decision-Making

Watch how long it takes Darnold to throw the ball after beginning his motion.

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Now look at how Tom Brady throws it, which is widely considered to be the ideal throwing motion.

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What’s different is where the ball is when they begin their throwing motion. Darnold basically has the ball at his hip where he starts, Brady’s is practically at his shoulder. Darnold’s also kind of winding up like a pitcher in baseball instead of just slinging it like what the best quarterbacks do. That’s something that can be worked with though, as a good coach can help tweak that. But the reason Darnold’s isn’t great is because that extra split second is the difference between the pass rusher getting a sack or just getting pressure. Or a receiver open and a safety cutting him off. His elongated throwing motion very easily could have led to a lot of his interceptions or strip sacks. Perhaps on some picks the guy was open when he started his motion, but he took so long to get the ball there that the defender was in position by the time the ball was out.

Draft Thoughts:¬†I personally think that returning to USC for one more season could be really beneficial for Darnold to have a full season to refine a new throwing motion before getting thrown to the wolves like he would be in the NFL. But I think he’s going to declare for the Draft and he’s so gifted and played against such good competition, he’s not going to make it past the top 5 picks. How he performs against Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl will be a huge barometer for how well he might transition to the pros. That’s about as close to an NFL defense as he’ll face all year and if he performs really well, he could justifiably be the top pick. I think quarterback-needy teams such as the Browns, Giants, and Broncos should all be in on this kid.

Pro Comparison: 

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Philip Rivers. Both guys have similar thick builds and have similar throwing motions and have a tendency to make the best of what they have. Rivers rarely ever has Pro Bowl-caliber receivers (Keenan Allen has been the one exception the last few years) but he gets them to play beyond their ability (Tyrell Williams, Dontrelle Inman, among others).

Lamar Jackson-Louisville

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Lamar Jackson is the most exciting player in college football. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2016 and actually improved in 2017. At first, I thought no chance is he an NFL quarterback, but after watching some throws he was making, I started re-evaluating things. I still think he would make a better wide receiver in the NFL, where his elusiveness can be better utilized, but if he can continue to grow as a passer the way he did between 2016 and ’17, then we could be looking at the next Michael Vick

Strengths: Running Ability, Arm Strength

If a defense isn’t careful, Jackson can take over games with his legs. I mean, human beings shouldn’t be this athletic.

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But Jackson is. Not only that, but in 2017 his passing numbers skyrocketed while his rushing totals kept pace with his monstrous 2016 season. Just look at this throw right here.

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This is a beautiful job of reading the safeties and hitting his receiver in stride.

Weaknesses: Size, Gimmick Play Style

You might notice that Lamar Jackson is PAINFULLY skinny, especially at a position where it’s become of heightened importance to have some build to you due to how much damage you take. Add in the fact that Jackson is a running quarterback that by nature will take a lot of hits, and you have the potential of a guy who may have a shortened career. Also, when was the last time a run-first quarterback had long-term success in the NFL? The only one I can think of is Michael Vick and he was a once-in-a-generation talent. You could argue Russell Wilson, but his passing game has developed so well that he’s kind of shed the mold of a run-first quarterback. Jackson will need to follow Wilson’s developmental model if he wants to have a long career in this league.

Draft Thoughts:¬†Again, I would prefer it if Jackson were to move to wide receiver, as I think that would be where he’d have the most success in this league. I wouldn’t take him in the first round just on the reputation of running quarterbacks and their lack of sustained success alone. However I do think that there will be a team that will be interested enough to take a chance on him in the first round, though I think as a quarterback he’s a third rounder. I think a team like the Buffalo Bills could be a landing spot for him, as he plays a similar style of game to the incumbent Tyrod Taylor, who has been handled about as poorly as an organization can handle a quarterback.

Pro Comparison: 

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Colin Kaepernick. They basically have identical frames with great athleticism and strong throwing arms. Kap is one of the aforementioned run-first quarterbacks that fizzled out as their careers went along.

Baker Mayfield-Oklahoma

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Baker Mayfield is about as polarizing a quarterback prospect as I can find. On the one hand, I see a lot of Russell Wilson in him. He’s short for a quarterback (6’0) but he plays with a lot of intensity and is able to use his legs to make plays, whether that be scrambling for a first down or moving out of the pocket to buy his receivers time to get open. On the other, he shows some Johnny Manziel traits that scare me. Mayfield is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and has led Oklahoma to a CFP berth for the second time in the last 3 years.

Strengths: Playmaking Ability, Athleticism, Accuracy, Intensity

Look at this play from Oklahoma’s bowl game last year.

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Notice how he never took his eye away from downfield but was still able to react accordingly to the unblocked defender that his guard absolutely WHIFFED on. A lot of quarterbacks in that situation will panic and chuck it away or into coverage, including Tom Brady. But Mayfield is so confident in his running ability that he doesn’t panic and uses his peripherals to his advantage, then drops a dime to Dede Westbrook. Which brings me to another point of strength with him: his accuracy. Mayfield led the nation in completion percentage this season and being accurate is something that translates to the NFL extremely well. Also that play above was on a fourth down, showing how cool under pressure he can be.

Weaknesses: Height, Decision-Making (not interception-related)

My main concern with Mayfield is that despite having the potential to be the next Russell Wilson, I could also just as easily see him being the next Johnny Manziel. Mayfield’s had three instances this season where his maturity was called into question. The first came in the offseason when he was tackled by campus police after trying to flee while publicly intoxicated. The next time was planting the OU flag at midfield after their win against Ohio State. Finally, the whole grabbing his nuts and cussing at the Kansas bench. The first his just him being an idiot college kid, but Manziel had a host of incidents like that. The other on-field incidents could result in fines and some unwanted media attention were they to occur in an NFL game.

Draft Thoughts:¬†As much as it seems like I might be criticizing Mayfield’s antics, I actually chalk this up more to just him being really intense and getting really amped up during games rather than him just being a prick, which was the vibe I got when Manziel would do his antics. I think it’s more likely that Mayfield becomes the next Russell Wilson than the next Johnny Manziel but I’d like to see him sit a year behind a veteran before being thrust into a professional offense, as he was in an air raid system at Oklahoma, which translates about as poorly to the NFL as any offense in college football outside of the wishbone. I personally would take him in the second round, but I think someone will take a chance on him in the first. I think some potential landing spots could be the Jaguars, Bills, and Cardinals.

Pro Comparison: 

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Russell Wilson. I’ve already made the comparison enough in this so I’m just going to leave it at that.

Josh Rosen-UCLA

at Rose Bowl on November 24, 2017 in Pasadena, California.

This is my favorite quarterback in this class and if I were the Cleveland Browns, I’m taking him #1. He literally has everything, the only issue I’ll get into later. I was extremely impressed by some of the throws he made when he squared off with Darnold to the point where I couldn’t believe they were even being compared to each other. Rosen has been the starting quarterback at UCLA since he set foot on campus. He showed a lot of promise as a freshman, but was lost in his sophomore season due to injury. Then his junior season he picked up right where he left off from his freshman season, opening the season with an incredible comeback against Texas A&M.

Strengths: Arm Talent, Pocket Presence, Experience

Are you kidding me with this ball placement right here?

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If this is thrown in any other spot, it’s picked off and based on how few Bruins are in the vicinity, it likely would’ve resulted in great field position for the Aggies. But he’s able to thread the needle and put the ball in the spot where only his receiver could get it. He’s also great in the pocket, as he seamlessly navigates the pocket and avoids pressure.

Weaknesses: Personality, Winning Percentage

The main knock I keep hearing from NFL scouts is that Rosen is a huge turnoff, with one scout going so far as to call him an “entitled prick.” They didn’t go into much detail about why that was, but it wasn’t a one-time occurrence. Rosen also hasn’t generated a ton of wins for UCLA, as his career record is only 17-13 (Darnold’s is 20-2 for comparison). However I think that has more to do with the talent around him, as his defense was pretty bad this season.

Draft Thoughts:¬†I would take Rosen with the top pick in the Draft. I think he has all the measurables you could ask for in a quarterback and despite complaints from scouts about his personality, he has gotten the backing of his teammates, who seem to like him, which matters significantly more to me than whether scouts think he’s a dick or not.

Pro Comparison: 

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Matt Ryan. Both have similar builds and similar play styles with great pocket presence.

Mason Rudolph-Oklahoma State

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Mason Rudolph was the orchestrator of some of the most exciting games in college football this season, particularly his duel with Baker Mayfield in the Bedlam Game. Despite losing the game 62-52, Rudolph was spectacular against his Heisman-winning counterpart. Rudolph also seems to develop great relationships with his receivers, as both James Washington and Marcell Ateman had tremendous seasons catching passes from Rudolph.

Strengths: Arm Talent, Size

Rudolph is basically the exact same size as Allen, 6’5 230 so the benefits between these two are basically identical. Rudolph played in an offense that elevated your stats, but he took advantage of that better than anybody outside of Pat Mahomes. He may have run an air raid offense, but his ball placement and arm talent often made up for the lack of playbook. Look at this throw right here.

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Yes his receiver missed the catch, but that ball went right through his hands and that ball could not have been thrown more perfectly. You’ve got to catch that if you’re the OK State receiver. Also, notice where that ball was thrown from: the 50. He was able to hit a touch throw 50 yards downfield and he didn’t even have to get much of a crowhop under there. Rudolph’s arm will be very enticing to NFL Teams.

Weaknesses: Type of Offense Run, Mobility

The type of offense run is a big one, mainly because he hasn’t had to make very many different kinds of throws. The routes the Cowboys receivers run are about as simplistic as they come and he’s never had to learn a playbook, which is what he’ll need to be able to do in the NFL. He’s probably going to have the biggest learning curve out of all the guys on this list but the talent is there. He’s also slow as dirt and his pocket presence and his ability to avoid pressure could use some work.

Draft Thoughts:¬†Rudolph has a lot of talent but he might need a year or two to learn how to operate an NFL offense before being thrust into a starting role. I wouldn’t take him higher than the second round but I also wouldn’t be surprised if a desperate team falls in love with him and takes him earlier than they probably should. I think the Saints would be the perfect landing spot for him, as that would probably be the smoothest transition for him, the Saints offense being the closest we have to an Air Raid offense in the NFL. Plus their success on the ground could take a lot of pressure off him when Drew Brees decides to hang them up.

Pro Comparison: 

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A better version of Bryce Petty. Both guys had similar skillsets and flaws coming out of college, however I think Rudolph is a bit more refined than Petty, who has shown the occasional flash in the NFL but the entire body of work hasn’t been great. I think if Rudolph is thrusted into the starting role too soon, then his career will be disastrous.

Those are my thoughts on a potentially stacked 2018 quarterback class. Agree? Disagree Let me know in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman 10 and contribute to my Patreon.

College Football Bowl Picks

Regular Season Record: 86-34       Conference Title Record: 8-0        Army-Navy: 0-1

This is going to get interesting. Bowl season is totally unpredictable but I’m going to do my damndest to try. I nailed the conference championship games but the task is a little more daunting this time around, as I’ve got about 40 games to do. For that reason, I’m going to keep this intro short. Let’s get to it.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Troy (-6) vs North Texas

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Troy is best remembered this season for beating LSU at their Homecoming but they really were a lot better than just that. These guys won the Sun Belt Conference this year and while that’s probably the least impressive conference in all of college football, it still says a lot about the success you’ve had this season. They face a tough offense in North Texas, led by quarterback Mason Fine, who could eclipse 4000 yards passing on the season in this game, which would be the first time in school history that has happened. He’s already CRUSHED the previous school record set back in 1994. I’m going with Troy in this one. They’ve shown they’re capable of winning the big game, North Texas hasn’t (their only win that can be deemed as quality is Army).

Projected Score: Troy 31 North Texas 27

Autonation Cure Bowl: Western Kentucky (-4.5) vs Georgia State

Despite losing former head coach Jeff Brohm to Purdue before the start of the season, Western Kentucky hasn’t lost much of a step in terms of the passing game. Hilltoppers quarterback Mike White should eclipse 4000 yards on the season barring an unbelievable performance from the Georgia State defense, which has been pretty inconsistent this season. They shut out Charlotte for their first win of the season but that came a week after losing to Penn State 56-0. Now yes, it’s Penn State, but that’s still not a good look to have a score like that on your resume. They also only barely beat god-awful Georgia Southern 21-17 towards the end of the season. I’ve got Western Kentucky big in this.

Projected Score: Western Kentucky 41 Georgia State 17

Las Vegas Bowl: #25 Boise State vs Oregon (-6.5)

I find the Las Vegas Bowl often has some pretty good matchups and this year is no exception. Boise State is the first ranked team to play their bowl game this year and they’re playing an Oregon team that’s just a couple years removed from appearing in the National Championship game. Now granted, a LOT has changed for the Ducks in that time, but there are still some players from that team on the current roster. However, not on the roster is head coach Willie Taggart, who was hired away by Florida State. His interim will be Mario Cristobal, who does have some head coaching experience, as he was the head man at FIU from 2007-2012. I don’t think it will help a whole lot, though, I think Boise State is going to come away with this one.

Projected Score: Boise State 28 Oregon 24

Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Marshall vs Colorado State (-5.5)

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If you do manage to catch this game, look out for Colorado State receiver Michael Gallup. He’s among the best there is in the country and doesn’t get a lot of exposure due to the fact he plays for Colorado State. 94 catches for 1345 yards and 7 TDs on the year for the senior from Monroe, GA. I don’t care what your level of competition was, that’s impressive. They face a Marshall team that is ice cold right now, losing 4 of their last 5 games, though 3 of those 4 games were decided by 5 or fewer points and the one that wasn’t was decided by 11. I’m giving the edge to Colorado State, I just think they have too many weapons on offense for Marshall to keep up with.

Projected Score: Colorado State 35 Marshall 28

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl: Middle Tennessee State vs Arkansas State (-4)

What’s Camellia? I’ve never heard that word in my life, but my autocorrect seems to think it’s fine. Seems like an odd thing to name your bowl game, but I’m sure Middle Tennessee State and Arkansas State aren’t complaining, as MTSU had to win their final game of the season to become bowl eligible while Arkansas State had their game against Miami (FL) cancelled due to Hurricane Irma and were put at a slight disadvantage in having to reach the required 6 wins in 11 games. Well they got 7 and will try and carry that season-long success into back-to-back bowl wins. I think they’ll do it, too. They’ve had a lot of success throwing the ball this season and I think MTSU will have some problems defending the plethora of receivers they have.

Projected Score: Arkansas State 38 Middle Tennessee State 27

Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl: Akron vs Florida Atlantic (-18.5)

I’m not going to get too deep into this one. Akron is a team that kind of lucked into a bowl appearance while Florida Atlantic has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation. I think they’re going to stampeded the Zips. This is one of the few bowl lines that is in double digits and there’s a reason for that, Lane Kiffin’s ground attack is too dominant.

Projected Score: Florida Atlantic 45 Akron 14

DXL Frisco Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs SMU (-5.5)

Louisiana Tech is a pretty average team and that’s going to be a problem when you face an offense as potent as SMU’s. Not only can quarterback Ben Hicks sling it, but he’s got two of the best receivers in the nation in Trey Quinn and potential first round draft pick Courtland Sutton. The Mustangs are going to score a ton of points as they also have an effective ground game, as Xavier Jones is over 1000 yards rushing on the season. I’ve actually got SMU in a blowout.

Projected Score: SMU 52 Louisiana Tech 24

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl: Temple (-7) vs Florida International

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl. What a name for a bowl game. I’d argue it’s an even better name than the now-defunct Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl. This game will also be played at my least favorite baseball stadium in Tropicana Field, so that’s about as perfect a combination of complete crap as you could ask for. Classic random-ass bowl games. Oh and there’s a football game that’s going to be played between Temple and Florida International. Temple has very little going for them offensively and defensively they’re not much better. Looking at their overall stats, I’m amazed they made it to 6-6. I think Florida International is going to come away with this one relatively handily.

Projected Score: Florida International 34 Temple 21

Bahamas Bowl: UAB vs Ohio (-8)

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What a journey it’s been for UAB. A few years back they got their football program cut despite going 6-6, which resulted in an exodus from many top players, including Jordan Howard to my Indiana Hoosiers, who as you may know is currently tearing it up in the NFL with the Chicago Bears. There was enough backlash from the UAB faithful that the school brought the program back. Now, in their first year back after a 2-year hiatus, the Blazers are bowl eligible for only the second time in school history. This is probably going to wind up being my favorite storyline of the college football season when the Blazers lift that Bahamas Bowl trophy in their victory over Ohio. Also UAB’s logo is a fire-breathing dragon and that’s awesome. Can’t not subconsciously root for them.

Projected Score: UAB 27 Ohio 21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Central Michigan vs Wyoming (pick ’em)

This is going to be a battle between two talented quarterbacks. Central Michigan quarterback Shane Morris showed all the talent in the world at Michigan but just couldn’t put it together before transferring to the Chippewas while Wyoming features potential top-10 draft pick Josh Allen. Despite being as talented as he is, Allen didn’t really have that great of a season. That can be due in part to a lack of real talent around him and in part due to the fact that Wyoming didn’t throw it a whole lot. But it is also most likely due to the fact that Allen has been playing on a bum shoulder for much of the season, which of course is a pretty big deal for a quarterback. I’m still looking for that one big performance that tells me that Allen is going to be a successful NFL QB but I just don’t know if that’s going to be in the cards. That shoulder injury is going to hurt Wyoming’s chances.

Projected Score: Central Michigan 31 Wyoming 24

Birmingham Bowl: Texas Tech vs South Florida (-2)

This could be the highest-scoring game of the bowl season. We all know how much Texas Tech likes to throw the ball, it’s been pretty well-documented, but USF’s Quinten Flowers is one of the most dynamic players in the country and has the ability to score on anybody at any time. Add in the fact that the Red Raiders can’t defend for shit and you’ve got the makings of a 5-hour game that ends with both teams over 50 points. I think that’s what we’re going to get and I’ve got South Florida taking home the trophy.

Projected Score: South Florida 55 Texas Tech 52

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: San Diego State vs Army (no line)

If Army’s going to have any shot at this game, they need to keep Rashaad Penny off the field. Penny is a monster with the ball in his hands and Army will need to dominate the time of possession if they’re going to stop him. If any team can do it, though, it’s the men at West Point. Their offense is built around the ground game and controlling the tempo. I think they’ll have some success early, but I think they will struggle to contain Penny and the Aztecs will pull away late.

Projected Score: San Diego State 31 Army 20

Dollar General Bowl: Appalachian State vs Toledo (-8)

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Toledo is among the best mid-major teams in all of college football. Quarterback Logan Woodside is one of the more underrated passers in the game today and while the Appalachian State Mountaineers have a pretty good defense, they’re going to struggle to contain all of Toledo’s weapons. Appalachian State won a share of the Sun Belt title with Troy and it was on the strength of an effective ground game. They’re going to struggle to keep up with Toledo, though.

Projected Score: Toledo 35 Appalachian State 30

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs Houston (-2)

I don’t know why this game is a Christmas Eve tradition, but it is. Usually it’s kind of a shitty matchup but this year it pits two of the best mid-major teams in the country. Fresno State nearly won the Mountain West a year after going 1-11 and Houston has continued to play well despite losing Tom Herman to (arguably) greener pastures in Texas. It’s going to be a defensive battle as Fresno State has one of the toughest defenses in the nation while Houston features perhaps the nation’s best overall defensive player in defensive tackle Ed Oliver. I’m going to give the edge to Houston in this one, as it’s more of a gut feeling than anything at this point.

Projected Score: Houston 17 Fresno State 10

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl: Utah (-5) vs West Virginia

Utah started out the season so nicely but then face-planted so hard. They started the year 4-0 but finished the season losing 6 of their last 8 and had to win the season finale over Colorado in order to even be bowl eligible. Normally, I would say they’re screwed for their game, but West Virginia isn’t sure if they will have quarterback Will Grier, who is nursing a broken finger on his throwing hand. Had it been his left hand, you could probably wrap it up with another finger and have him go out there, but not when it’s on your right hand where it will directly affect how you throw. But to be honest, his replacement, Chris Chugunov (what a name) didn’t play that badly against Oklahoma in his start. Was he particularly good? No, but he kept West Virginia reasonably in the game. They still ended up losing by 28, but that’s because Oklahoma scored 59 points. Leading your team to 31 points against the second best team in the country isn’t half bad. That’s why I’m going with the Mountaineers in this game, with or without Grier.

Projected Score: West Virginia 38 Utah 24

Quick Lane Bowl: Duke (-3.5) vs Northern Illinois

Duke’s offensive line is going to have their hands full with Northern Illinois. The Huskies have arguably the best pass rusher in the nation in Sutton Smith, who led all of college football with 14 sacks to go along with 28 tackles for loss. Duke started the year 4-0 before losing 6 straight and had to win their last two in order to become bowl eligible, but they were able to pull it off, beating two pretty good teams in Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. But I think Duke is going to struggle to protect quarterback Daniel Jones in this one. They were 80th in the nation in sacks allowed and they go up against the team that led the nation in sacks. I’ve got Northern Illinois taking this one.

Projected Score: Northern Illinois 20 Duke 17

Cactus Bowl: Kansas State (-3) vs UCLA

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Kansas State is going to struggle to throw the football in this one. They used three different quarterbacks this year and none of them were particularly successful. Despite this, they have one of the better defenses in the Big 12, which is saying nothing.¬† This team is going to get eaten alive by Josh Rosen, though. They simply can’t keep up with him on offense and I think this is going to be the game that solidifies him as the number 1 pick in the Draft.

Projected Score: UCLA 42 Kansas State 24

Walk On’s Independence Bowl: Southern Miss vs Florida State (-15)

Normally, I would wonder how in the Hell this matchup is even legal. But losing Deondre Francois in Week 1 derailed Florida State’s season so hard, Jimbo Fisher skipped town for Texas A&M. They’ve still managed to become bowl eligible, though and will look to try and pick up the win against Southern Miss. Southern Miss has one of the best rushing attacks in the country, led by Ito Smith and his 1300 yards on the ground. The defense has also been solid this year, as they’ve pitched two shutouts. But I’m going with Florida State here, but I don’t think it will be nearly as big a blowout as the line might suggest.

Projected Score: Florida State 27 Southern Miss 24

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa (-3) vs Boston College

This is the one bowl I’ve ever attended, when Indiana played Duke and Indiana lost in OT after a Griffin Oakes field goal was incorrectly called no good. It traditionally has some pretty good games in their Big Ten-ACC matchup. Iowa has perhaps one of the most damaging victories all season in that their 31-point win over Ohio State most certainly knocked the Big Ten out of the playoff picture. Boston College, meanwhile, has been one of the more up-and-down teams I’ve seen in a while. One week they’ll absolutely DESTROY Florida State and then the next they’ll lose to NC State (not a knock against the Wolfpack, but BC’s offense in particular can’t seem to find a consistent rhythm). I’m going with Boston College for this one, as aside from that one performance against the Buckeyes, Iowa hasn’t been that impressive this year.

Projected Score: Boston College 24 Iowa 20

Foster Farms Bowl: Arizona (-3.5) vs Purdue

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So as you may have read, Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate is my favorite to win the Heisman next season because of the dominant stretches he displayed. However he does need to improve as a passer if he’s going to reach those heights. Purdue is a pretty solid run defense, especially with Ja’Whaun Bentley at linebacker. Tate might need to whip out that passing ability if Arizona is going to keep pace, but I think they will. Tate is such a talented runner that I think overall he’s going to overpower Purdue and Arizona will get the win.

Projected Score: Arizona 28 Purdue 21

Academy Sports+Outdoors Texas Bowl: Texas vs Missouri (-1)

Both teams were quietly pretty solid this season mainly because it was below their traditional standards, but definitely better than the last couple years. Texas showed some promise under Tom Herman but it may be a couple of years before they return to the Longhorns of old. Missouri’s Drew Lock had a fantastic season throwing the football, as he led the nation in passing touchdowns this season. I’m going to give the edge to Texas in this one. It’s a toss up but the game is being played in Houston, where the Longhorns will essentially have a home field advantage, which is big in college sports.

Projected Score: Texas 30 Missouri 27

Military Bowl: Virginia vs Navy (no line)

Virginia actually had a pretty good season this year. After going 2-10 in Bronco Mendenhall’s first season at the helm, the Cavaliers turned it around nicely and find themselves in a bowl game. Also, quarterback Kurt Benkert is getting some looks from the NFL as a result of his successful season. They face a Navy team that lost a heart breaker to Army in the snow and I just don’t know if they have what it takes to take down this surprisingly talented Virginia squad. I’ve got the other Cavs in this one.

Projected Score: Virginia 24 Navy 14

Camping World Bowl: #22 Virginia Tech vs #19 Oklahoma State (-6.5)

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This is too good a matchup to be relegated to the likes of the Camping World Bowl, but at least in most cases by the time the game actually kicks off, you kind of forget which bowl you’re playing in. The number 3 scoring offense in Oklahoma State vs the number 5 scoring defense in Virginia Tech. Something’s gotta give. I think I’m going to give the edge to Oklahoma State here. Yes, I know, a matchup of this type usually ends up favoring the defense, but the Cowboys have far too many weapons that the Hokies have to compete with.

Projected Score: Oklahoma State 35 Virginia Tech 30

Valero Alamo Bowl: #13 Stanford vs #15 TCU (-2.5)

This is going to be a really close game as both teams have the ability to be really explosive on offense while also featuring some of the best defenses in their respective conferences. Heisman runner-up Bryce Love leads the Cardinal to face TCU and their duo of talented defensive ends in Ben Banogu and Mat Boesen. While I do think Love is going to have a big game for the Cardinal, I don’t think it will be enough to compete with the TCU offense. Kenny Hill’s been having a tremendous season for the Horned Frogs and I think he leads them to an Alamo Bowl victory over Stanford.

Projected Score: TCU 28 Stanford 23

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl: #18 Washington State (-2.5) vs #16 Michigan State

Like the Oklahoma State-Virginia Tech matchup, this game features one of the top offenses in the country in Washington State vs one of the top defenses in Michigan State. The Cougars are the second best passing offense in the nation, trailing only the aforementioned Oklahoma State while the Spartans allowed under 200 passing yards per game this season. It’s going to be a tough matchup but I think Washington State is going to come out on top. Michigan State has been too careless with the football offensively, as they’ve fumbled it more than any team in the country that doesn’t run a run-only offense, which I think the Cougars will find ways to capitalize on.

Projected Score: Washington State 31 Michigan State 24

Belk Bowl: Wake Forest (-3) vs Texas A&M

Wake Forest was quietly a pretty good team this season, as they went 7-5 this season, including wins over a Lamar Jackson-led Louisville team and a late-season win over then-#19 NC State. They take on a Texas A&M team that is getting a major face lift, as they fired Kevin Sumlin only to turn around and hire Jimbo Fisher away from the Florida State Seminoles. Fisher, however, will not be leading the Aggies in this game, as that task will fall on Jeff Banks. I’m actually going to go with the Demon Deacons in this game. There’s too much turmoil going on with the Aggies in this game and I think it could become a distraction, which is the last thing you want when you face a pesky team like this.

Projected Score: Wake Forest 24 Texas A&M 21

Hyundai Sun Bowl: #24 NC State (-6.5) vs Arizona State

Like Texas A&M, Arizona State also hired a new head coach in Herm Edwards, who has previously coached in the NFL with the Jets and Chiefs. It’s an odd situation because despite firing the incumbent Todd Graham, Graham will still be coaching this game for the Sun Devils. This could go one of two ways: Graham could be salty and sabotage this game for his former employer, or he could try and go out with a bang and give his best performance. I don’t think it’ll matter a whole lot what he ends up doing because I think NC State’s Bradley Chubb is going to give a similar performance to what we saw Solomon Thomas give for Stanford in their bowl game last year: a performance that will solidify him in the Top-5 pick discussion. I’ve got the Wolfpack in this game.

Projected Score: NC State 27 Arizona State 20

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Kentucky vs #21 Northwestern (-8.5)

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Kentucky is quietly a pretty good team this year as they went 7-5, including wins over South Carolina, Missouri, and Tennessee. Mark Stoops has done a Hell of a job with his team this year, but I think they’re going to run into some problems against Northwestern. The Wildcats had one of the best seasons in school history, as they went 9-3, including winning each of their last 7 games, including an OT win over Michigan State. Northwestern plays some really sound and fundamental football and I think they’re going to frustrate this Kentucky offense that is predicated on being able to run the football. I’ve got Northwestern in this game.

Projected Score: Northwestern 23 Kentucky 13

Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl: New Mexico State vs Utah State (-3)

The battle of the Aggies, this game might slip under the radar a bit because it’s not a matchup of household names. Which is a shame, because when they’re on, they can be two of the most exciting offenses in college football. New Mexico State’s Tyler Rogers ranked among the best passers in the game with his 3825 passing yards this season while Utah State preferred a more balanced attack that spreads the ball around to various different options. I’m going to go with New Mexico State for this game. Utah State’s defense has had its struggles this season and I think Rogers is going to have a field day.

Projected Score: New Mexico State 38 Utah State 27

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: #8 USC vs #5 Ohio State (-7)

So in an 8-team playoff format, this would be the 4 vs 5 matchup and dammit if I’m not pumped for it. Getting a chance to watch Ohio State live twice this season, I was able to see firsthand just how much better this team got over the course of the season. Their defense, which struggled to contain Indiana’s Richard Lagow and Simmie Cobbs, were lights out in the Big Ten championship, absolutely shutting down Heisman hopeful Jonathan Taylor. Their defense will put potential top pick Sam Darnold to the test, as this will be by far the toughest defense he faces all year. How he performs in this game will go a long way in determining whether he really is the top quarterback everybody projected him to be. I think he will have his struggles, though I don’t think it will necessarily be because of him. I think USC’s offensive line will struggle to protect him against the monster of a front that Ohio State has and they will wreak havoc on the Trojans.

Projected Score: Ohio State 30 USC 20

TaxSlayer Bowl: Louisville (-6) vs #23 Mississippi State

Lamar Jackson may have finished third in the Heisman voting this year, but I would argue that he actually played better in 2017 than he did in his banner 2016 season. Louisville wasn’t quite as good as they were last year and that’s really what hurt Jackson’s Heisman chances. They face a Mississippi State team that can be very dangerous, as they came the closest to beating Alabama before Auburn was able to pull it off in the Iron Bowl. But I think they will struggle to contain Lamar Jackson. Limiting Jalen Hurts is one thing, but Jackson is so much better a passer that it’s going to be too much for the Bulldogs to keep track of.

Projected Score: Louisville 38 Mississippi State 30

Autozona Liberty Bowl: Iowa State vs #20 Memphis (-3)

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Memphis’ Riley Ferguson can sling it with the best of them, as he showed in Memphis’ early-season win over Josh Rosen’s UCLA Bruins, where Ferguson was able to outduel the potential top draft pick. He’s also got a lot of weapons on offense that will cause Iowa State a lot of problems, however if anybody is up to the task, it’s the Cyclones. Iowa State is the only team to beat Oklahoma this season and they also were able to hand TCU their first loss of the season. Both teams ended up playing in the Big 12 title game, so Iowa State does a great job of playing up to their competition. However I think the combination of Ferguson and receiver Anthony Miller is going to be too much for Iowa State to handle and I think Memphis will come away with this one.

Projected Score: Memphis 42 Iowa State 38

Playstation Fiesta Bowl: #11 Washington vs #9 Penn State (-3)

This is a matchup made in heaven. Two teams that boast not only talented offenses, but talented defenses as well. They each had a couple of rough goes, Penn State likely would have played for the Big Ten Title game had JT Barrett not pulled off a miraculous comeback to knock off the then-second-ranked Nittany Lions. Then they lost to Michigan State after a 3-and-a-half-hour storm delay midway through the contest that likely threw off their groove. Washington also had a couple of ugly defeats, as they were upset by Arizona State midway through the season, then a loss to Stanford that effectively eliminated them from Pac 12 title contention. Both teams will be looking for a bit of redemption for their once promising seasons and I think this will go down to the wire. I’m going to go with Penn State to get the win, though. I think their offense is too explosive for Washington to keep up with for four quarters.

Projected Score: Penn State 31 Washington 28

Capital One Orange Bowl: #6 Wisconsin (-6.5) vs #10 Miami (FL)

The Turnover Chain is dead. Clemson buried it.

The Hurricanes are suddenly ice cold as they’ve delivered back-to-back duds to close out their schedule. They lost in embarrassing fashion to Pittsburgh, then got obliterated by Clemson in the ACC Championship game with a playoff berth on the line. Then Dabo Swinney’s bunch destroyed what had been the emblem of the Hurricanes’ season in the Turnover Chain and Miami fans can’t be feeling much lower right now. They take on a Wisconsin team that may have been exposed a little bit in their loss to Ohio State. While the Badgers did manage to keep the game close, it was mainly because Ohio State shot themselves in the foot on multiple occasions. That being said, I think this defense is going to cause a lot of problems for Malik Rosier and company and Wisconsin will come away with the victory.

Projected Score: Wisconsin 24 Miami (FL) 10

Outback Bowl: Michigan (-8.5) vs South Carolina

These two teams have met in the Outback Bowl before.

However South Carolina doesn’t have anybody who evenly remotely resembles JaDeveon Clowney this year. Michigan has had their struggles at the quarterback position this year but if they can get the ground game working, then I think they will be okay. Defensively they’re so good they can practically take over games. I’ve got the Wolverines winning this one.

Projected Score: Michigan 21 South Carolina 17

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl: #12 UCF vs #7 Auburn (-10)

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Why Auburn is ranked 7th despite being a 3-loss team is beyond me, but it doesn’t really matter anymore as long as they aren’t in the playoff. They looked good to start the SEC Championship game, marching down the field and scoring a touchdown on their first possession. Then Georgia unraveled them and scored 28 unanswered. They face the lone unbeaten team in college football in UCF. Despite being hired by Nebraska, UCF head coach Scott Frost will coach the Knights in this game to close out the season, which I wish more coaches would do. It is for that reason that I think UCF will compete with Auburn, even give them a scare for most of the game, but I think the Tigers will outlast them. Eventually, talent often wins out, though if any team were to be on upset alert for this bowl season, I’d say it’s Auburn.

Projected Score: Auburn 20 UCF 17

Citrus Bowl presented by Overton’s: #14 Notre Dame vs #17 LSU (-2.5)

These are two teams that like to run the ball and play physical defense and on paper are pretty evenly matched. LSU has recovered really well after their homecoming debacle against Troy, as they’ve won 6 of 7 games since that loss, their one defeat being Alabama. The Fighting Irish, on the other hand, ended the season rather meekly, losing 2 of their last 3 after having been in the playoff hunt for much of the season. Granted, those two losses were Miami and Stanford, but both teams ended up getting beaten in their conference title games, Miami pretty soundly while Stanford kept it close. Notre Dame is capable of beating up on good teams, though, and I think the difference is going to be quarterback play. I trust Notre Dame’s Brandon Wimbush more than I do LSU’s Danny Etling and for that reason, I’m picking the Irish.

Projected Score: Notre Dame 31 LSU 27

Rose Bowl: #3 Georgia vs #2 Oklahoma (-1)

The first of the two playoff games, this will be Baker Mayfield’s first game after winning the Heisman Trophy. It will also be an opportunity for him to increase his draft stock even further, as he goes up against a really tough Georgia defense. If he can have a big game, then I think NFL teams will be far more intrigued by the possibility of drafting him high. As for Georgia, they look to break the 3-seed curse, as the team in that slot has yet to win a playoff game (Florida State, Michigan State, and Ohio State have all failed to get the job done). It’s going to be an uphill battle for them, as they will have to ask Jake Fromm to outduel the Heisman-winning Mayfield. It won’t be impossible, as Oklahoma will likely be without stud runningback Rodney Anderson as he faces domestic assault charges, but I don’t see that happening, and I’m picking the Sooners reaching the National Championship for the first time since the 2008 season, when Sam Bradford was outplayed by Tim Tebow.

Projected Score: Oklahoma 31 Georgia 26

All State Sugar Bowl: #4 Alabama (-2) vs #1 Clemson

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Part 3 of this CFP rivalry, though it’s the first matchup in this series that won’t be taking place with the National Championship on the line. Alabama will be very thankful it’s not Deshaun Watson under center for Clemson, as he absolutely lit them up in each of the previous matchups. Kelly Bryant will be tasked with taking on the Crimson Tide defense. He’s not Watson, but he has proven capable of winning big games, as he led Clemson to wins over the likes of Auburn, Virginia Tech, and a blowout of Miami for the ACC title. Offensively, Alabama will have to compete with the most efficient defense in the country in Clemson, as their defensive front that includes the likes of Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence, and Clellin Ferrell will make it tough to move the ball. Having seen eachother each of the last few years, I think both Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney will have made the adjustments they will need to come away with the victory. In the end, I think Clemson will come away as the winner of this best-of-3 series and will take on Oklahoma for the National Championship.

Projected Score: Clemson 34 Alabama 31

*Exhales.* Finally, I’ve made all the picks and it only took me 5530 words, more than doubling my previous high word count (which I think was an NFL picks segment). I’m going to wait to do the National Championship game until the night before, as I don’t want to predict a matchup that hasn’t been set up yet. But based on what I’ve predicted, I think that Clemson will beat Oklahoma to win back-to-back championships. I just think they’re more well-rounded than Oklahoma is and I think the Sooners’ deficiencies on defense will come back to haunt them in this one. Agree with my picks? Disagree? Let me know in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10 and contribute to my Patreon.

College Football Picks: Week 12

Last Week: 9-3                    Season Record: 69-27

I may end up sabotaging my own picks segment because I enter the week at exactly 69 wins. This is going to hurt to try and pick winners. Last week my misses were NC State against Boston College (so damn close to picking that upset), Auburn over Georgia, and Miami (FL) over Notre Dame. This is the second to last week of the college football regular season, but do not fret, I will keep doing this segment. I’m going to do an expansive picks blog for the Army-Navy game, every conference title game, and every bowl game. So with that, let’s get picking.

Rutgers vs Indiana (-11)

Indiana needs this win if they are going to have any chance of remaining bowl eligible, as they currently sit at 4-6. Rutgers has given the Hoosiers problems in the past, as they’re 2-1 against Indiana since joining the Big Ten, including a 55-52 victory in 2015 where the Hoosiers held a 20-point lead late in the game. The Scarlet Knights are definitely better than they were last season, which isn’t saying much because they were easily the worst team in the Big Ten in 2016. Hell, Indiana played their worst game of the season last year against Rutgers and still won 33-27. I have the Hoosiers again though it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Rutgers beat the spread.

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Tegray Scales has been the leader of a resurgent Hoosiers defense (photo credit: Indiana Daily Student)

Projected Score: Indiana 31 Rutgers 24

#24 Michigan vs #5 Wisconsin (-7.5)

This game is huge in terms of Big Ten postseason implications. Not only could Michigan set itself up for a shot at the Big Ten Championship game with a win, but a Wolverines win would likely eliminate Wisconsin from CFP contention given how weak their schedule is. These are two pretty evenly matched teams as they play the same style of classic Big Ten football, in which offense is predicated on the run game and the defense is stingy and physical. Michigan has looked like their old selves again since switching from John O’Korn to Brandon Peters and I think they give Wisconsin a run for their money, but I think the Badgers escape this one and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Projected Score: Wisconsin 24 Michigan 20

Texas vs West Virginia (-3)

Texas isn’t back yet, but they’ve shown some good things under Tom Herman, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, as they are probably the only Big 12 team that actually plays defense. Malik Jefferson has been as advertised and they will need to be at their best if they hope to top Will Grier’s West Virginia squad. The Mountaineers have been a tough offense to stop and that’s thanks in large part to Grier’s comfort in head coach Dana Holgorsen’s system. The Mountaineers are coming off two of their worst offensive performances of the season in their last two games, however both resulted in victories, showing that the defense can step up when needed. I’m taking West Virginia in this one.

Projected Score: West Virginia 30 Texas 21

Minnesota vs #23 Northwestern (-7)

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have struggled in Big Ten play this season, as they’re only 2-5 in conference play, their two wins being lowly Illinois and Nebraska. Defensively they’ve been decent, however, as aside from being unable to tackle Michigan runningbacks, they’ve held their own. It’s on the offensive side of the ball where they’ve struggled, though they are coming off a 54-21 drubbing of Nebraska last time out. Northwestern has had similar success on the defensive side of the ball but they’ve been a lot more consistent offensively and that is thanks in large part to the growth of quarterback Clayton Thorson and the continued dominance of runningback Justin Jackson. I do think Northwestern wins this game, they just have more weapons on offense than Minnesota does.

Projected Score: Northwestern 23 Minnesota 17

SMU vs #21 Memphis (-12.5)

A rare non-Power 5 game in my picks, but this game intrigues me mainly because this is probably the best matchup of wide receivers we’re going to get all season. SMU receiver Courtland Sutton is my top receiver in the upcoming draft and Memphis’ Anthony Miller is my number 5 pass catcher. SMU’s Trey Quinn has also been extremely impressive this season, as he is approaching 100 catches on the year and is already over 1000 yards. So this may not look like much on paper, but if you like wide receivers, turn this game on. I do see this game being high scoring but I’m going to give the edge to Memphis. Quarterback Riley Ferguson has outdueled the likes of Josh Rosen this season and I would certainly give him the edge over SMU’s Ben Hicks.

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Anthony Miller is arguably the best player you’ve never heard of (photo credit: NDT Scouting)

Projected Score: Memphis 45 SMU 41

Kentucky vs #7 Georgia (-21.5)

Tough loss for Georgia. They went into Jordan-Hare Stadium and got ROCKED by the Auburn Tigers last week, dropping in the rankings from #1 to #7. Their playoff hopes are definitely still alive and well, but they will have to win out in order to become one of the final four. Their first test will be the Kentucky Wildcats, who have quietly been pretty good this season. They’re 7-3 and have beaten the likes of Vanderbilt and Tennessee this season so this won’t be a cake walk for Georgia. However I think Kirby Smart will have his guys ready after the beatdown they suffered at the hands of Auburn and they will get themselves back on track this week.

Projected Score: Georgia 35 Kentucky 21

Kansas State vs #13 Oklahoma State (-20)

Oklahoma State is still alive to get a rematch with Oklahoma in the first ever Big 12 title game, but they will need to win out and they need TCU to lose one of their next two games (TCU faces Texas Tech and Baylor). The Cowboys offensively have been an absolute juggernaut with Mason Rudolph, James Washington, and Justice Hill leading the way. Kansas State has had their share of struggles this year but they were competitive to the very end against Oklahoma and their defense held tough in their loss to TCU. I think Oklahoma State will win, but I don’t think it will be by nearly as much as the spread might indicate.

Projected Score: Oklahoma State 35 Kansas State 24

Navy vs #8 Notre Dame (-18)

Notre Dame is pretty much eliminated from playoff contention after getting shellacked by Miami (FL), handing them their second loss of the season. With no conference title game to play for, that pretty much spells the end for the playoff hopes of the Fighting Irish, barring complete insanity. They face an always scrappy Navy team that has given Notre Dame a lot of problems over the years and I actually think this game will come down to the wire. I do think the Irish will pull away and win this game, but the Midshipmen will give them quite the scare.

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The Notre Dame ground game has caused opposing defenses lots of problems this season (photo credit: UHND.com)

Projected Score: Notre Dame 27 Navy 24

#19 NC State vs Wake Forest (-1.5)

NC State narrowly escaped Boston College last week with a 17-14 victory despite the fact that the Eagles were without star edge rusher Harold Landry (whom I had hyped up for that matchup without knowing he was dealing with a bum ankle. Such is life.). Wake Forest is a scrappy team, as they have kept the game close in all of their losses this season, which includes Clemson and Notre Dame. I’m actually going to go on a limb and say Wake Forest takes this game. It’s a gut feeling for this one because they’ve come close to beating ranked teams on multiple occasions this season, I think this is the week they get it done.

Projected Score: Wake Forest 20 NC State 17

UCLA vs #11 USC (-16)

All the eyes of NFL scouts will be on this game. Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold could be the top 2 picks in the draft this season and they’ve both played some stellar quarterback. Both quarterbacks rank in the top 10 in the nation in passing yards and this is despite Rosen missing the Utah game due to injury. He is very healthy now, coming off a 381-yard showing against Arizona State last time out. Darnold has struggled with turnovers this season, he leads all of college football in that category, but that hasn’t kept him from being a top-tier quarterback this season. I really hope this game ends in a shootout and I think we’ll get it. These quarterbacks are too gifted for it not to end as such. I have USC winning because they have more weapons on defense to get a stop against Rosen.

Projected Score: USC 49 UCLA 42

California vs #22 Stanford (-15.5)

Another edition of the rivalry most famous for that time Stanford’s band was on the field during Cal’s game-winning run. Both squads have been pretty inconsistent this season, with Cal blowing out a top-10 Washington State team one week, then losing to Arizona the following week (though it has since been discovered that Arizona is actually pretty good). Bryce Love had a bounceback game in the win over Washington last week, rushing for 166 yards after being limited to just 69 (nice) the week prior against Washington State. I think Love carves up the Cal defense and Stanford wins handily.

Projected Score: Stanford 42 California 21

Utah vs #18 Washington (-18)

Utah has been ice cold since beginning Pac 12 play, as they’ve lost 5 of their last 6 and their one victory was over a UCLA team that was without superstar quarterback Josh Rosen. Washington is pretty healthy and I think Myles Gaskin will have a field day with this Utes defense. He is at 1038 yards on the season on just 166 carries (6.3 YPC) and Utah has just been okay against the run this season. Jake Browning hasn’t been the stud he was last season, but he won’t need to be in order for Washington to get the victory over Utah.

Projected Score: Washington 35 Utah 17

Those are my picks for this week in my second-to-last shot at a perfect week. Agree? Disagree? Are there other games you want my thoughts on? Let me know in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

College Football Picks: Week 11

Last Week: 8-4                     Season Record: 60-24

My picks were a little bit better this week than last, as I improved by 1 victory. The games I missed were Michigan State vs Penn State (I like to think the 3 and a half hour weather delay in the middle of the game affected Penn State), Washington State against Stanford, Miami (FL) vs Virginia Tech, and USC vs Arizona. So let’s have another go at a perfect week, as I’m starting to run out of time with only a few weeks left in the regular season.

Indiana (-8) vs Illinois

Indiana has to win out if they want to make it to a bowl game for a third straight season, which has never happened in school history. They’ve got their easiest stretch yet, facing lowly Illinois, Rutgers, and an admittedly improved Purdue. The Hoosiers are finally done with the BRUTAL aspect of their Big Ten schedule, as five of their six losses have come against conference juggernauts Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Penn State. They shouldn’t have any issues in Champagne, as the Fighting Illini have been a doormat this season. I anticipate Indiana ending their 4-game losing streak.

Projected Score: Indiana 38 Illinois 24

#12 Michigan State vs #13 Ohio State (-17)

Rarely does Ohio State lose under Urban Meyer, which made it all the more shocking to watch what Iowa did to the Buckeyes last week. 55-24 was the final at Kinnick Stadium and I can’t imagine Ohio State’s locker room having been very fun afterwards. That’s why I think they will come out like their asses are on fire in this one. A loss to Michigan State will effectively bury their chances at the Big Ten Championship game, as not only will they have 2 conference losses, but Michigan State will hold the tie breaker. The Spartans are coming off a shocking victory over Penn State that saw them jump TWELVE spots in this edition of the CFP rankings. I think Ohio State wins this and regains their stranglehold on the Big Ten East.

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Sam Hubbard (#6) and Tyquan Lewis (#59) form arguably the best pass rush duo in the nation (photo credit: Bucknuts)

Projected Score: Ohio State 27 Michigan State 24

#15 Oklahoma State (-6.5) vs #21 Iowa State

If you looked at the schedule at the beginning of the season, you would’ve probably pegged this game to be a bloodbath in Oklahoma State’s favor, however they are only 6.5 point favorites. That’s because Iowa State has played well beyond expectations this season, delivering shocking blows to the playoff resumes of both Oklahoma and TCU and have elevated themselves into the rankings these last few weeks. On the flip side, both of OK State’s losses are those two teams I just mentioned Iowa State having beaten. The Cyclones are coming off a tough loss to West Virginia but their victory against Oklahoma also came following a loss, so I wouldn’t put a ton of stake in that. I do think Oklahoma State prevails, however, as Mason Rudolph and company have been far too deadly on offense for most teams to keep up with. Iowa State quarterback Kyle Kempt isn’t exactly Baker Mayfield and won’t outscore a team that drops 52 points on them like what Oklahoma did to Oklahoma State last week.

Projected Score: Oklahoma State 45 Iowa State 31

#23 NC State (-3) vs Boston College

NC State is coming off back-to-back losses, dropping to 6-3 on the year but still remain ranked because of who it was they lost to: #3 Notre Dame and #4 Clemson. Boston College is certainly a step down talent-wise, but don’t sleep on the Eagles either. BC has delivered punishing performances against Louisville, Florida State, and Virginia of late, that’s why the Wolfpack are only 3-point favorites. This is going to be a tricky game and I actually think BC pulls away in this one, which will be highly hyped for the battle between the two best defensive ends in the country: NC State’s Bradley Chubb and Boston College’s Harold Landry.

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2016’s sack leader Harold Landry has BC looking even better in 2017 (photo credit: Boston College Athletics)

Projected Score: Boston College 23 NC State 20

#1 Georgia (-2) vs #10 Auburn

This is the first of 3 matchups between Top 10 teams on the day and it pits two of the SEC’s best. Georgia is still #1 according to the CFP committee, which I do disagree with, but not enough to make a huge fuss over. Both teams have a fantastic 1-2 punch at runningback; Georgia having Nick Chubb and Sony Michel while Auburn has Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway. This game is going to come down to which defense can make the key stop, as I anticipate this being a low-scoring affair. I think Georgia’s linebacking stable of Roquan Smith, Lorenzo Carter, and Davin Bellamy will be able to handle Auburn’s backs and Georgia comes out on top.

Projected Score: Georgia 20 Auburn 14

#20 Iowa vs #8 Wisconsin (-12)

Iowa is coming off a shocking blowout over Ohio State that has catapulted them into this week’s Top 20 teams. Cornerback Josh Jackson was sensational, picking off JT Barrett 3 times including this insanity:

Jackson’s play this past week also has NFL scouts going back to their reports on him and his stock is skyrocketing to the point where I read one analyst having him as the top corner in the nation. Lucky for Wisconsin, they don’t pass a whole lot so they don’t have to worry too much about Jackson, in theory. They managed to outlast Indiana last week 45-17 on the strength of 21 fourth quarter points and the defense looked really impressive as well, shutting down Indiana’s offense after giving up an early 10 points. Wisconsin does have to be pretty thankful for Iowa’s victory over Ohio State because a win here would finally get the analysts off their backs about not facing a ranked team. I think they get the job done this week.

Projected Score: Wisconsin 28 Iowa 20

Michigan (-17) vs Maryland

The Wolverines looked sharp again against Minnesota, as Brandon Peters has been a significant improvement over John O’Korn. Not only that, but his improved play has allowed the running game to regain its form, as Karan Higdon and Chris Evans were unstoppable last week. They face a Maryland team led by receiver DJ Moore, who has been a huge problem for defenses this season with 59 catches for 820 yards and 8 TD’s. Elsewhere, however, the Terrapins are pretty thin and I think Michigan’s world-class defense will be able to focus a little more energy on Moore without compromising their ability to stop other guys. I got the Wolverines in this one.

Projected Score: Michigan 30 Maryland 7

#11 USC (-14) vs Colorado

Sam Darnold was terrific in USC’s shootout victory over Arizona last week, though he did throw another interception, getting his total to 11 on the season. He’s only had two clean games this year but when he’s on, he’s dynamite. He went 20-26 with 311 yards and 2 TD’s in the win and he faces a lackluster Colorado team that does admittedly have a really talented cornerback in Isaiah Oliver. I watched a little bit of footage on him and he’s a big dude who moves really well and almost never gets beat. I’ll probably talk a little more about him when it’s draft season, but a lot of scouts say he’s the top corner in this class. But the rest of Colorado’s team is pretty underwhelming and I think USC will do just fine in this one.

Projected Score: USC 42 Colorado 17

#19 Washington State vs Utah

I’m admittedly a little surprised Washington State was able to defeat Stanford in a low-scoring affair, however the biggest reason they won was they were the first team all season to shut down Bryce Love, holding him to 69 yards (nice) on 16 carries. Luke Falk was also terrific in that game, throwing for 337 yards and 3 Touchdowns in the 24-21 victory. They face a Utah team that has lost 4 of its last 5 games and looks like a shell of the team that started 4-0. I think Wazzu will keep up its momentum and take this one as they head into their bye prior to their showdown with Washington.

NCAA Football: Oregon State at Washington State

Despite battling nagging injuries, Luke Falk has been one of the best quarterbacks in the nation this season (photo credit: USA Today)

Projected Score: Washington State 49 Utah 27

#2 Alabama (-13.5) vs #16 Mississippi State

I still don’t know what more Alabama has to do to convince the CFP committee that they’re the best, but I’m sure that will all get itself sorted out on December 2 in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama can’t get caught looking ahead, though, as Mississippi State is pretty stiff competition despite trailing UMass at halftime last week. I don’t think we have to go too much into this, Alabama has virtually been untouchable in the regular season under Nick Saban and the Bulldogs simply don’t have the firepower to unseat them.

Projected Score: Alabama 35 Mississippi State 17

#3 Notre Dame (-3.5) vs #7 Miami (FL)

Catholics vs Convicts. Catholics vs Convicts. Catholics vs Convicts. Anyone who has followed this matchup is probably sick of seeing that tagline from the 1980’s, but one can be forgiven for thinking back to those days as Notre Dame vs Miami actually means something again. Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot. While Notre Dame already has a pretty impressive resume, Miami needed a win over a good Virginia Tech team to finally get some respect despite being unbeaten. A win for the Hurricanes will likely catapult them into the Top 4, depending on how convincing the win is. However, Notre Dame’s defense and running game will give this Hurricanes’ team problems and they will struggle to hold off the Fighting Irish. Catholics take this round.

Projected Score: Notre Dame 24 Miami (FL) 20

#6 TCU vs #5 Oklahoma (-6.5)

If you thought Bedlam was fun, this has the potential to be even better. Oklahoma is coming off a 62-52 victory over in-state rival Oklahoma State in what was the most insane offensive shootout in a long time. These two teams come in with very similar resumes: identical records (both in conference and non-conference), both teams’ sole loss is Iowa State, both feature gun-slinging quarterbacks that transferred from another high-profile school, I could go on but I don’t want to. I’m going to give the edge to Oklahoma. Baker Mayfield has been as hot as any quarterback in the country and is drawing Russell Wilson comparisons as he gets ready for an NFL career. I’m going with the Sooners in this.

Projected Score: Oklahoma 55 TCU 52

Those are my picks for this week. Fingers crossed I can pull off the perfect week before this season gets out. Are there any other games you want my thoughts on? Let me know in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

College Football Picks: Week 10

Last Week: 7-5                   Season Record: 52-20

Ouch, rough week for my college football picks. 7-5 might not look so bad but it was my worst week since I started doing this segment. The games I missed were Indiana against Maryland, Washington State against Arizona, Ohio State against Penn State, Iowa State against TCU, and Mississippi State against Texas A&M. Rough week. So before I drown my sadness in candy, let’s get picking. The rankings on this blog no longer represent the AP Poll, but now the CFP Rankings since those are the only rankings that matter.

#9 Wisconsin (-13.5) vs Indiana

I’m a little surprised Wisconsin is ranked this low despite being undefeated, but it just goes to show how a weak schedule can really hurt in the eyes of the voters. Indiana’s one of the better teams Wisconsin will face, even though their 3-5 record might suggest otherwise, but the Hoosiers play good opponents tough. They were hanging with Ohio State for most of the game, they held their own against Penn State after falling behind big early, and they nearly beat Michigan and Michigan State. The one bad loss for Indiana is Maryland and in that game they just repeatedly shot themselves in the foot. I think Wisconsin will win again, but this has the potential to be a trap game for the Badgers coming into Bloomington.

Projected Score: Wisconsin 27 Indiana 20

#7 Penn State (-10) vs #24 Michigan State

Penn State’s loss to Ohio State could be a killer. Despite both teams having the same records, OSU’s loss was to a non-conference opponent, which doesn’t hurt their chances at the Big Ten championship. Penn State, on the other hand, will need Ohio State to lose twice as well as win out themselves in order to have a crack at a repeat title. But they’re as good as any team in the country and it took an amazing performance by JT Barrett to beat them. Michigan State doesn’t have anyone near Barrett’s caliber so I don’t think their stingy defense will be enough to stop the Nittany Lions.

Projected Score: Penn State 35 Michigan State 20

#14 Auburn (-15) vs Texas A&M

Texas A&M really let me down last week against Mississippi State. I had high hopes for them in that game and they got throttled by the Bulldogs. Now they face a dangerous Auburn team that can not only score on anybody, but stop anybody as well. The Aggies are going to have their work cut out for them and I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t beat the spread in this one.

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Kerryon Johnson is part of a prolific backfield duo with Kamryn Pettway (photo credit: AL.com)

Projected Score: Auburn 45 Texas A&M 21

South Carolina vs #1 Georgia (-23.5)

I was a little surprised to see Georgia take the number 1 spot in the initial playoff rankings, even though I will admit they have the most impressive resume. But I thought Alabama passed the eye test better and I feel like if these two teams were to meet, Alabama would win 8 times out of 10. That’s not a knock against Georgia, that’s just how good I think the Crimson Tide are. They face a South Carolina team that I think is underrated. They beat NC State at the start of the season (a win that looks REALLY good right now) and I think Jake Bentley is one of the more underrated passers in the country. They won’t beat Georgia, but I do think they beat the spread (a rather large one at that).

Projected Score: Georgia 28 South Carolina 17

Wake Forest vs #3 Notre Dame (-14)

Notre Dame at #3 doesn’t really shock me. They have an impressive resume to go with their good record. My reasoning for putting them at #4 behind Ohio State in my playoff projections was because I felt that the Buckeyes would win in a head-to-head matchup. The voters felt differently, obviously, because Notre Dame is 3 and OSU is 6. The Fighting Irish take on a Wake Forest team that is pretty scrappy. They’ve been competitive in their three losses to Florida State, Clemson, and Georgia Tech and are coming off a 10-point victory over Louisville. I have Notre Dame in this, but I think the Demon Deacons make it interesting for a while.

Projected Score: Notre Dame 34 Wake Forest 20

#4 Clemson (-8.5) vs #20 NC State

I was a little surprised to see Clemson crack the playoff in the first rankings at #4. I figured their loss to a team like Syracuse and Kelly Bryant’s questionable health would scare the committee. But they seem to be okay with it because if the season ended today, Clemson would be facing Georgia in the first round of the Playoff. They have an opportunity to boost that resume this week against a good NC State team, who is coming off a tough loss to Notre Dame. Bradley Chubb continues to be a menace for the Wolfpack and I think he will give the Tigers a lot of problems. But Clemson’s also got some beasts on defense and I think theirs win out.

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If Kelly Bryant can return to full health, Clemson is a DANGEROUS team (photo credit: The State)

Projected Score: Clemson 38 NC State 30

#21 Stanford vs #25 Washington State (-1)

The key for this game is going to be the health of Bryce Love for Stanford. He missed last week’s game against Oregon State with an ankle injury and the Cardinal narrowly escaped with a 15-14 victory. Washington State is coming off a rough loss to Arizona in which the Cougars were TORCHED on the ground by Arizona dual-threat QB Khalil Tate. It has been announced that Love will be able to play in this game. It will be interesting to see how well he is able to make his cuts on that ankle. But I think he will be at enough strength where he will be able to do damage to the Wazzu defense.

Projected Score: Stanford 42 Washington State 35

#5 Oklahoma vs #11 Oklahoma State (-1.5)

The Bedlam Game has a lot more on the line this week than usual. Both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are 1-loss Big 12 teams vying for a playoff spot, the loser likely being eliminated. Oklahoma’s loss was to Iowa State (which looks better and better each week) and OK State got burned by TCU, whom Iowa State recently topped. It’s going to be a battle between two of the best quarterbacks in college football in Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph and I think whichever defense can make a stop will be the winner. I have more faith in the Sooners to get this done.

Projected Score: Oklahoma 49 Oklahoma State 45

Minnesota vs Michigan (-15)

Michigan is in a weird position right now. Sure the defense is terrific, but Wilton Speight won’t be seeing the field anytime soon and they just had to bench John O’Korn for their third string quarterback Brandon Peters. Sure, Peters looked good last week, but it was against Rutgers. That’s like saying he played well against folding chairs. Minnesota’s defense isn’t exactly the ’85 Bears, but they’ve been decent, not allowing more than 31 points this season. I think this will be a close game for 3 quarters but I think Michigan’s talented ground game will pull away in the fourth.

Projected Score: Michigan 31 Minnesota 24

#19 LSU vs #2 Alabama (-21.5)

Alabama head coach Nick Saban (whom I consider to be the greatest college football coach of all time) has often stated that he doesn’t care about the polls, but that’s easy for him to say because he’s always #1. However, the first CFP polls came out and Alabama is #2 for the first time in the regular season since 2015. Considering how badly they’ve beaten some teams, I’m sure the Crimson Tide players have to be asking themselves “what more do you want from us?” Well, decimating this LSU team would be a start. The Tigers have been playing well since getting embarrassed by Troy but I think they ran into Alabama at the worst possible time. We could be seeing Bama’s reserves long before this game ends.

Projected Score: Alabama 52 LSU 21

#13 Virginia Tech (-1) vs #10 Miami (FL)

Like Wisconsin, Miami (FL) is also undefeated yet finds itself barely within the top 10. This is mainly because not only have they not beaten anybody good (Florida State does not count as a good team this season), but they’ve barely beaten these not good teams. They face their first real test in Virginia Tech, whose only loss was to Clemson a few weeks ago. Since then, their defense has been absolutely DOMINANT, not allowing more than 10 points in any of their last 3 games (which includes a 59-7 drubbing of North Carolina). I think Virginia Tech wins this one and I think they’ll expose the Hurricanes’ shortcomings.

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Tremaine Edmunds and the Hokies defense have been unstoppable in their last 3 games (photo credit: 247 Sports)

Projected Score: Virginia Tech 48 Miami (FL) 24

#22 Arizona vs #17 USC (-7)

Khalil Tate was a MONSTER against Washington State, rushing for 146 yards and throwing for 275 more. He’s approaching 1000 yards on the ground this season and he has the Arizona Wildcats looking their best since 2014. They face a USC team that has been really inconsistent this season. Sam Darnold has been pretty good but he has underwhelmed given the expectations set for him at the beginning of the year (which were unfairly high, but 10 interceptions at this stage of the season isn’t where a top draft pick wants to be). Speaking of Darnold, he reportedly will return to school if the Cleveland Browns end up with the #1 overall pick, that’s how badly he doesn’t want to play for them. Hard to blame him, but I’m also not so sure he would be the top pick anyway at this point. But anyways, back to the game, I think Khalil Tate puts on another show and leads Arizona to the big win over USC.

Projected Score: Arizona 42 USC 39

Those are my picks for this week. If there are any other games you want my thoughts on, let me know in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

College Football Picks: Week 9

Last Week: 10-2                                 Season Record: 45-15

I once again had a strong showing in my picks last week. My two misses were Boston College against Virginia (which I missed BADLY) and Arizona State vs Utah, which I admitted in the blog was a big toss up. So with that, let’s get picking.

#11 Oklahoma State (-7.5) vs #22 West Virginia

This has the potential to be a shootout and quite frankly is the only 12:00 game I have any real interest in (hence it being the only 12:00 game on my picks today). Mason Rudolph and Will Grier have been two of the best quarterbacks in college football this season and we can expect them to put up a massive amount of points between them. It’s going to come down to which defense can make a stop and based on what I saw last week, I have to give that edge to OK State.

Projected Score: Oklahoma State 48 West Virginia 41

#2 Penn State vs #6 Ohio State (-6.5)

Ohio State is favored by almost a touchdown in this game? Seriously? I mean I know they’re good but have you seen Penn State this season? The last time I ripped a line was the Michigan State vs Iowa game and it came back to bite me in the ass. This is going to be a really tight game as both JT Barrett and Trace McSorley are having really strong seasons and are probably the two best quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Ohio State’s defensive line is arguably the most dangerous unit at any position in football, with two potential first round picks this year (Tyquan Lewis and Sam Hubbard) and another next year (Nick Bosa). But after watching Saquon Barkley dice up the 2nd best defense in the nation in Michigan last week, I have to think that Ohio State’s defense will also struggle to contain the Heisman frontrunner. Penn State wins.

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Trace McSorley has Penn State in the hunt for a second consecutive Big Ten title (photo credit: PennLive.com)

Projected Score: Penn State 24 Ohio State 21

#3 Georgia (-14) vs Florida

I don’t know what to make of Florida. Their offense is so inconsistent it makes it nearly impossible to predict their games. The defense has been tough, though, and I think they’re going to keep this interesting because Georgia is clearly the better team. Their ground game is a sight to behold and their defense has been reminiscent of head coach Kirby Smart’s Alabama days. Georgia will win fairly handily but the scoreboard will suggest it was a closer game than it actually was.

Projected Score: Georgia 27 Florida 19

#4 TCU (-7) vs #25 Iowa State

TCU has been a juggernaut this season and it came to a head last week against Kansas. They won the game 43-0, outgained the Jayhawks 475-21, and held them to -25 rushing yards. You read that right. They’re going to face a much better Iowa State team, which in the past that wasn’t always the case, but Iowa State has played really well this season, highlighted by their upset victory over Oklahoma a few weeks ago. I actually think they will hang with TCU for a while in this game even though TCU has only played in a single one-score game all season (a 31-24 win over West Virginia). TCU will win, but Iowa State will put up a fight.

Projected Score: TCU 34 Iowa State 24

#14 NC State vs #9 Notre Dame (-7.5)

Bradley Chubb has been a MONSTER this season for the Wolfpack. He is second in the nation in tackles for loss and seventh in sacks and is a big reason why NC State has won 6 in a row after losing on the opening weekend. He’s going to face a tough offensive line in Notre Dame, as Mike McGlinchey and Quenton Nelson are two of the best O-Linemen in the country that block for a top rushing attack. Brandon Wimbush and Josh Adams are about as explosive a QB-RB rushing duo as their is in the country and this NC State defense is going to have their hands full. I’m going to give this one to Notre Dame, as they get another big win to add to their playoff resume.

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Bradley Chubb has arguably been the best defensive player in the country this season (photo credit: Pro Football Focus)

Projected Score: Notre Dame 27 NC State 23

UCLA vs #12 Washington (-18)

Washington is coming off a stunning loss to Arizona State and they’ve had two weeks to sit on it. I think that works as motivation in their favor and I think the offense is going to come out guns blazing. However defensively they will struggle against Josh Rosen, who only trails Mason Rudolph by 30 passing yards for the national lead. I think UCLA easily beats the spread, but Washington still comes out on top in the end.

Projected Score: Washington 38 UCLA 34

#16 Michigan State (-2.5) vs Northwestern

This game is going to be miserable. It’s expected to be 46 degrees and raining for this tilt between to stout defenses. Ball security is going to be key here and that’s something that Michigan State has struggled with all season. Only Air Force, Georgia Southern, and San Jose State fumble more often than the Spartans and the former two run wishbone offenses that heavily feature the run. You can bet Pat Fitzgerald’s team is going to be gunning for that football and I think they will create the takeaways. I’ve got Northwestern with the upset.

Projected Score: Northwestern 14 Michigan State 10

Indiana (-4.5) vs Maryland 

Indiana has yet to win a game in the Big Ten this season but their schedule hasn’t done them any favors. They’ve faced Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State, all of which have been ranked at some point this season (they have a date with #5 Wisconsin next week) and 3 of them have been in the top 10. It gets easier against Maryland, a team that IU thrashed on the ground last season with the Big Bacon package (they subbed out Richard Lagow and Devine Redding for the speedy Zander Diamont and the 270 pound Tyler “Big Bacon” Natee). Maryland has been without quarterback Tyrrell Pigrome for most of the season and his backup Max Bortenschlager has completed fewer than 50% of his passes (was going to say “less than” but that would’ve been grammatically incorrect. Thanks, Stannis). I think Indiana’s stingy defense is going to have a field day and make Maryland completely one dimensional and get on the board this Big Ten Season.

Projected Score: Indiana 27 Maryland 17

Mississippi State (-1) vs Texas A&M

Both teams have been pretty good in the SEC this season and it’s going to be a tightly contested ballgame. Defensively, Mississippi State has been relatively consistent in that they’re bad against good teams (Auburn and Georgia) and good against bad teams and LSU. So it’s tough to say what we’ll get out of them when they take on Christian Kirk and the Texas A&M offense, which has been pretty solid all season to go with a defense which, aside from two outliers against UCLA and Arkansas, has been exceptional this season. I’m going to give the advantage to the Aggies for this.

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Christian Kirk is the biggest threat on the A&M offense (photo credit: Sports Illustrated)

Projected Score: Texas A&M 35 Mississippi State 24

Georgia Tech vs #7 Clemson (-14)

Clemson is coming off a SHOCKING loss to Syracuse, a game that saw Kelly Bryant leave with an injury. He’s expected to be ready to go for this game against one of the top defenses in the nation in Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets would likely be ranked had they been able to hold on late against the U and I think they’re going to give Clemson a run for their money. Clemson knows that if they lose this game, their bid for a third straight playoff trip is dead, so I think they come out with a little more intensity this week than they did against Syracuse.

Projected Score: Clemson 28 Georgia Tech 17

#15 Washington State (-7) vs Arizona

Washington State is coming off a big bounceback win over Colorado after getting wrecked by California. They shut out the Buffaloes 28-0 and will try and do something similar against a scrappy Arizona team. The Wildcats are 5-2 on the season and 3-1 in Pac12 play after very low expectations to start the season. Khalil Tate has been an animal, with 780 rushing yards on only 56 carries (10.2 ypc) and Wazzu is going to have their hands full with him. I think this will be a high scoring game and the Cougars are better built for those types of games than Arizona is.

Projected Score: Washington State 42 Arizona 28

#21 USC (-3.5) vs Arizona State

This could be a real trap game for USC. Arizona State has been playing spoiler all season, beating the likes of Washington, Utah, and Oregon despite a mediocre record (4-3). USC has yet to play up to its potential all season and if they aren’t careful they could find themselves dropping out of the rankings. I think they will win this one, but the Sun Devils will give them quite the scare.

Projected Score: USC 28 Arizona 27

Those are my picks for this week, I’m in search of that perfect week now after a pretty solid overall record on the season. Agree with my picks? Disagree? Let me know in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10

 

College Football Picks: Week 8

Last Week: 8-4                    Season Record: 35-13

So I took a few more chances last week than usual. I had two big upset picks, Indiana over Michigan and Georgia Tech over Miami (FL). Indiana took Michigan to OT but lost 27-20 and Georgia Tech was about to upset the U until Darrell Langham made a terrific catch on 4th down to keep Miami alive in time to make a game-winning field goal to win 25-24. I came close, but that doesn’t make my record look any better. My other losses were Auburn against LSU and Navy against Memphis, though both games were 1 score games. So I came THIS close to being 12-0 last week. My point is my picks for college football are really good and you should definitely listen to what I say. So with that, let’s get picking. Spoilers ahead.

#10 Oklahoma State (-7) vs Texas

The Cowboys have been really solid this season, especially on offense where Mason Rudolph and James Washington have been unstoppable. Their one loss was against an unbeaten TCU team in which they put up their lowest scoring output of the season. That would be 31 points. There is a ton of fire power on this offense that goes into Austin to take on the Longhorns who have to be feeling pretty good about themselves after taking Oklahoma to the limit. They’ve played well against good teams this season as they also looked good in a loss to USC. They aren’t quite back just yet but they will make this game with OK State interesting. I have the Cowboys winning.

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James Washington is second in the nation in receiving at 882 yards. (photo credit: Tulsa World)

Projected Score: Oklahoma State 45 Texas 35

Louisville vs Florida State (-6.5)

So looking at this game on the schedule in preseason, I’m sure a lot of fans circled this on their calendar as must-see TV. Here we are in Week 8 and these two teams have NOT had things go well this season. I talked in my Heisman blog, which you can read here,¬† about Louisville’s struggles this season so I won’t talk your ear off about that here, but Florida State has just imploded without Deondre Francois. Derwin James continues to be an animal but the rest of this Seminoles team has just kind of phoned it in this season and the underclassmen are looking towards next year. They’re favored in this game, but I like Louisville’s chances in this one. Lamar Jackson is still killing it this year and while he does struggle with turnovers, I think he puts up enough points where it doesn’t bite the Cardinals too hard.

Projected Score: Louisville 38 Florida State 28

Boston College vs Virginia (-5.5)

Traditionally these two teams are in the cellar of the ACC, but they’re both having some solid seasons. Boston College is coming off a BIG win at Louisville on the strength of AJ Dillon’s 270 yard performance on the ground, as well as this VICIOUS stiff arm.

Virginia is 5-1 on the year, their one loss being to Big Ten opponent Indiana in Week 2. The Cavaliers admittedly have had a pretty easy schedule to start the year, Indiana and Boise State being their best opponents until the end of the year, but they are getting the job done. Defensively they’ve been very solid. The most points they’ve allowed all year is 34 against Indiana and they are consistently between 10 and 21 points allowed each game. Boston College isn’t consistent enough an offense to do to Virginia what they did to Louisville and I think Virginia wins this game and becomes bowl eligible for the first time since 2011.

Projected Score: Virginia 21 Boston College 14

Arizona State vs Utah (-10)

Arizona State has been playing spoiler all season. They competed to the end with Texas Tech and Oregon and beat a good Stanford team and are coming off a huge upset over a top-5 Washington squad. Utah has been a similar type of team this season in that they make good opponents nervous. Their two losses are by a combined 4 points to Stanford and USC. So basically this is a game between two trap game teams. Both have been overall pretty inconsistent and this game is a pretty big toss up. I think Utah wins and that’s mainly on the strength that I trust them a little bit more because they are a play or two away from being 6-0.

Projected Score: Utah 30 Arizona State 24

Indiana vs #18 Michigan State

Indiana is coming off a near upset of the Michigan Wolverines and now they head to East Lansing to face a Michigan State team that actually did manage to beat Michigan in the Big House. The Hoosiers defense was really impressive aside from the fact they couldn’t stop Karan Higdon last week but they face a Michigan State offense that may be without runningback LJ Scott, who was arrested a couple nights ago for driving with a suspended license. It is unknown what his availability will be for this game. But both defenses are really tough and physical and I think this is going to be a dogfight. However I think Michigan State outlasts Indiana at the very end and gets some revenge for their loss last season.

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Simmie Cobbs Jr has been a problem for opposing defenses this season (photo credit: The Herald Bulletin)

Projected Score: Michigan State: 21 Indiana 17

#9 Oklahoma (-14.5) vs Kansas State

Kansas State is struggling right now. Their one win over a Power 5 team is Baylor and they’re winless right now. They’ve lost two in a row to a solid Texas team and an excellent TCU team. They’re home against Oklahoma, who has looked a little shaky the last couple of weeks. They lost to Iowa State and got taken to the brink against Texas. That one I’m not so sure would’ve been too different regardless of what happened the week prior against Iowa State, when Texas and Oklahoma play you can use any cliche imaginable and it’ll fit. But I think this is where Oklahoma re-enters the CFP discussion, as they put the smackdown to Kansas State.

Projected Score: Oklahoma 49 Kansas State 21

Kentucky vs Mississippi State (-13)

Kentucky is surprisingly 5-1 on the season, their one loss coming against the Florida Gators, but a botched coverage late in the game is what’s keeping them from being 6-0. They’ve had a weak schedule thus far but they played really well in their win against a pretty good South Carolina team, however they have let lesser teams like Eastern Michigan and Southern Miss keep it close, which would have me nervous about their ability to go into Starkville and get a win against Mississippi State. Mississippi State has been the bane of my existence when it comes to picking. I felt like they’d be competitive against Georgia and I thought they would beat Auburn in back to back weeks a few games ago. They got blown to kingdom come by both teams. Yet those came after thrashing a pretty good LSU team. They’re coming off a smacking of BYU and I think Nick Fitzgerald has them keeping up momentum against Kentucky, however Kentucky will beat the spread, as they’ve kept it close against good teams this season.

Projected Score: Mississippi State 27 Kentucky 23

Oregon vs UCLA (-6.5)

I’ve tried to pick Oregon to get big wins for the last couple weeks now and they’ve let me down each time. Royce Freeman is having a big season for the Ducks, with 797 yards on 133 carries with 10 TDs but they’ve been without quarterback Justin Herbert with a broken collarbone and freshman Braxton Burmeister has just simply not been good. He’s completed 52% of his passes with 172 yards with 1 TD and 4 interceptions and that won’t be enough to outscore Josh Rosen’s UCLA Bruins. Rosen has been terrific this season and although UCLA’s record hasn’t been where I’m sure Bruins fans want it to be, you have to feel really good about their chances this week.

Projected Score: UCLA 42 Oregon 17

#24 LSU (-7) vs Ole Miss

I have no idea what to make of this LSU team. They lose to Troy on homecoming then follow that up with back-to-back wins over ranked teams, Florida and a top-10 Auburn team. So really I haven’t the slightest clue of what to expect with Ed Orgeron’s team. Ole Miss got embarrassed about as badly as a team can get embarrassed against Alabama a few weeks ago (66-3) and it took until last week to show some life, beating Vanderbilt 57-35. Ole Miss doesn’t seem to show up when they face big time teams and I think they will struggle against a physical LSU defense. Whether LSU is able to put up big time points is another question entirely. I think LSU wins it but Ole Miss may make them nervous.

Projected Score: LSU 24 Ole Miss 21

#19 Michigan vs #2 Penn State (-9.5)

Michigan barely escaped Indiana last week after losing to Michigan State the week prior, which explains why they dropped from #8 to #19 in two weeks. The defense is EXTREMELY impressive, in fact Indiana was the first team all season to score 20 points on the Wolverine defense. They face a tough challenge in Penn State, but I think they will struggle to score against Michigan. Saquon Barkley has been held under 100 rushing yards each of the last two weeks and they go up against the toughest defense they’ll face all year, as Michigan has yet to ALLOW a hundred yard rusher this season. Michigan will also struggle to score, however, as the offense has no passing game with John O’Korn under center and they were struggling with a healthy Wilton Speight. I think Penn State wins a low scoring affair and Michigan’s tumble down the rankings will continue.

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Donovan Peoples-Jones has been one of the most impressive freshmen in the country this season (photo credit: The Michigan Daily)

Projected Score: Penn State 20 Michigan 13

#11 USC vs #13 Notre Dame (-3.5)

This is going to be a fun game. Both teams are vying for a playoff berth for the first time in either school’s history and the loser will likely be effectively eliminated from contention. There’s a lot on the line, needless to say. Sam Darnold has been inconsistent for USC but he’s always found a way to win with the exception of the Washington State game, however if he wasn’t strip-sacked on that final drive, who knows what a guy of his caliber could’ve done. Notre Dame’s one loss was against the current #3 team in the nation in Georgia and it was a narrow loss early in the season. The defense is significantly better than it was last season and while Brandon Wimbush has had some struggles, he has more than proven he is capable of leading this team on a big run. This game is a toss up but I trust Notre Dame a little bit more to get the job done as they’ve been a bit more consistent than the Trojans.

Projected Score: Notre Dame 28 USC 24

Colorado vs #15 Washington State (-10)

Yikes, doesn’t get much uglier than Wazzu’s performance against Cal. Though to be fair, nobody could’ve beaten the Golden Bears the way they played in that game and something looked really wrong with Luke Falk health-wise. Falk has had some injuries but Washington State doesn’t disclose injuries to the media in-game and we haven’t gotten a whole lot out of the Cougars’ locker room following up last week’s performance. If he’s okay, I’d consider Washington State a lock against Colorado. The Buffaloes have struggled mightily in conference play, their one win being last week against the lowly Oregon State Beavers. If he’s not okay, then I think it will be close, but I still think Washington State gets the win.

Projected Score: Washington State 41 Colorado 21

Those are my picks for this week. I noticed a lot of good teams are on bye this week, such as Georgia, Clemson, and Ohio State, so that makes the matchups a little more toss-uppy this week. If there are any other games you want my opinion on, let me know in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.