Checking in on my MLB season predictions

So the MLB season has come and gone, with the exception of the 2 game 163’s yet to be played tonight. You might remember earlier this year when I did my 30 Clubs in 30 Days segment (which was more like 30 Clubs in 35 Days due to the fact I went on vacation in the middle of it). Well I capped that off with a preview of the MLB season where I made some predictions. I’m going to link to that blog here. I’m going to sum it up this way: all things considered, my predictions did better than I expected. So I’m going to highlight what I nailed and what I whiffed on before I do any season-ending stuff since the regular season is technically still going.

Predicted Records:

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AL East                        Predicted W/L Record             Actual W/L Record      W/differential

Boston Red Sox                  95-67                                       108-54                           +13

New York Yankees             98-64                                      100-62                            +2

Tampa Bay Rays                 68-94                                      90-72                              +22

Toronto Blue Jays               78-84                                      73-89                              -5

Baltimore Orioles               81-81                                     47-115                            -34

To my credit with the Orioles, I did say in their season preview that the predicted 81 wins were kind of a placeholder because I felt they had the talent to be really good, but they also had the volatility to be really bad. Granted, I didn’t expect them to be THAT bad, but still. Also, Kevin Cash is a serious candidate for AL Manager of the Year after taking a Rays team that I thought had the talent to win 68 games and making them a 90-win squad that was in the playoff hunt until the last week.

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AL Central                        Predicted W/L Record             Actual W/L Record      W/differential

Cleveland Indians                 99-63                                          91-71                               -8

Minnesota Twins                   84-78                                          78-84                               -6

Detroit Tigers                        64-98                                           64-98                               Nailed it

Chicago White Sox                70-92                                          62-100                            -8

Kansas City Royals                74-88                                          58-104                             -16

Aside from the Tigers, it seems I somehow managed to overrate every single team in the AL Central, which is saying a lot because this division sucked this year. I accurately predicted the Tigers would lose 98 games this year, however in my predictions, I predicted that would be the worst record in the American League. It wasn’t even the worst in their division, nor the second worst.

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AL West                        Predicted W/L Record             Actual W/L Record      W/differential

Houston Astros                 101-61                                      103-59                             +2

Oakland Athletics              77-85                                       97-65                               +20

Seattle Mariners                85-77                                       89-73                                +4

Anaheim Angels                 86-76                                      80-82                                -6

Texas Rangers                   82-80                                        67-95                               -15

To my credit, I did pick the A’s as my AL sleeper team this season. But never in my wildest dreams would I have guessed they’d win 97 games. That would normally win a division but this year they’re the second Wild Card team and will play a one-game playoff in Yankee Stadium. I whiffed pretty badly on the Rangers. I honestly thought they were more talented than people gave them credit for. Nope.

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NL East                        Predicted W/L Record             Actual W/L Record      W/differential

Atlanta Braves                     71-91                                     90-72                             +19

Washington Nationals        95-67                                     82-80                             -13

Philadelphia Phillies           75-87                                     80-82                             +5

New York Mets                     84-78                                     77-85                             -7

Miami Marlins                      62-100                                   63-98                            +1

One thing should be noted, the Marlins and Pirates did not reach 162 games played so my predicted W/L totals were going to be wrong regardless. So I take solace in that. But anyway, the Braves were a year ahead of schedule, taking the NL East in a year I figured they’d be testing out their youngsters. I was right, they did test out their youngsters. Except it turns out, those kids are really freaking good. The Nationals on the other hand, were a huge disappointment and will likely head into a downward spiral when Bryce Harper inevitably leaves them. I did predict the Phillies as my NL sleeper team and for a while that looked like a good pick until an AWFUL September doomed them.

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NL Central                        Predicted W/L Record             Actual W/L Record      W/differential

Chicago Cubs                       94-68                                            95-67                              +1

Milwaukee Brewers           88-74                                            95-67                              +7

St. Louis Cardinals             85-77                                             88-74                              +3

Pittsburgh Pirates               76-86                                            82-79                              +6

Cincinnati Reds                   69-93                                             67-95                              -2

The NL Central was the only division where I nailed the order of finish (provided the Cubs beat the Brewers in Game 163). It was also the only division where I didn’t have a single Win Differential that was off by double digits. So I guess I know the NL Central better than any other division?

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NL West                       Predicted W/L Record             Actual W/L Record      W/differential

Colorado Rockies                    81-81                                        91-71                              +10

Los Angeles Dodgers             100-62                                       91-71                              -9

Arizona Diamondbacks         91-71                                        82-80                               -9

San Francisco Giants              85-77                                        73-89                              -12

San Diego Padres                     70-92                                        66-96                              -4

My Rockies going .500 pick was looking pretty good until they went scorched earth on the rest of the league in September and are now playing game 163 against the Dodgers for the right to avoid the Wild Card Game. Arizona was also looking like a good pick to be in the playoff hunt until they did the exact opposite of the Rockies and sharply declined late in the season. The Dodgers recovered from a slow start to get back to the postseason, however they’ve still got to get past the Rockies if they hope to host a playoff game.

So overall I’d say I did pretty well on my win/loss predictions. I nailed the Tigers and was off by 1 on the Cubs and Marlins. In general, the teams I predicted would be good were good and the teams I predicted to be bad were bad. There were a few oddities (Giants, Rangers, Nationals), but in general my predictions were reasonably accurate.

Now on to the more specific predictions that I made at the end of that season preview blog.

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Prediction #1: Clayton Kershaw will show slight signs of slowing down now that he’s 30 years old, will post an ERA over 2.50, something he hasn’t done since 2012. People will freak out and panic accordingly

Result: Kershaw finished with an ERA of 2.73, which is high by his standards (he has a career ERA of 2.39), but considering he was dealing with injuries throughout the season, I was hearing no complaints. So I’d say I was half right on this one: Kershaw did post an ERA over 2.50, but nobody is outwardly panicking.

Prediction #2: The Yankees’ season will be filled with peaks and valleys en route to 98 wins. Considering Judge and Stanton strike out as often as anyone in baseball, this could lead to some rough slumps at times for the two and their team as a result. However, when they’re on, nobody will be able to beat the Yankees.

Result: Kind of? There were a couple stretches in the middle of the season where the Yankees looked vulnerable but in general their peaks were a LOT bigger than their valleys en route to 100 wins. Stanton finished with the 5th highest K-rate in the Majors and Judge would’ve finished right in front of him had he had enough at bats to qualify. I’ll admit, this was kind of a lame prediction in general.

Prediction #3: The Baltimore Orioles will trade Manny Machado to a contender at the trade deadline. The Orioles won’t be super competitive in 2018 and Machado’s contract is up at the end of the year. The smart thing to do would be to trade him to a contender and load up on top prospects. Predicted landing spot? Uhhhh…how about the Brewers? I would say the Yankees but the Orioles’ brass has made it clear they’d prefer not to trade Machado within the division.

Result: Machado was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers shortly after the All Star Game. The prospect package the Orioles got for Machado was pretty good overall, but considering Machado was on an expiring contract, getting elite prospects was probably not in the cards.

Prediction #4: The Yankees will not break the team home run record. This is mainly because I think teams are going to try and pitch the Yankees a little more carefully this season. Knowing the type of power this team possesses, I doubt they’re going to get great pitches to hit. This may lead to higher walk rates for the team, though.

Result: Wrong. The Yankees did break the team home run record, but it took them 161 games to get to that mark. The Yankees finished with 267 team home runs, breaking the 1997 Mariners’ record of 264. They had 6 players with at least 20 home runs and 12 with at least 10. Giancarlo Stanton led the way with 38 dingers.

Prediction #5: The Marlins won’t be nearly as bad as people think. But let’s be honest, the opinions of the Marlins’ talent can’t be much lower at the moment. However every season there’s a team that everyone thinks is going to be the worst and yet somehow they find ways to be just bad, not historically bad.

Result: The Marlins sucked, but they finished with basically the same record I predicted them to finish with (I predicted they would win 62 games, they won 63). They were the worst team in the National League, but because the Orioles were so bad, people kind of forgot about how bad Miami was.

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Prediction #6: The American League’s home run king will be an Oakland Athletics player. I can envision this happening, considering the power Khris Davis and Matt Olson showed last season. Matt Chapman could also be a sneaky home run threat as well.

Result: Damn, did I nail this one. Khris Davis led the Majors with 48 home runs this season, beating out JD Martinez, who had 43. Meanwhile, Matt Chapman looks like a superstar. Olson didn’t progress as much as I’d hoped, but he was still a quality first baseman for the A’s.

Prediction #7: Mike Trout will finish outside the top 2 in AL MVP voting for the second consecutive season. This isn’t to say that I think Trout will struggle this season. Far from it. Last season was the first time in Trout’s Major League career (since 2012) that he didn’t finish in the top 2 in AL MVP voting and I think it’s going to happen again. As you saw in my awards predictions, I have Aaron Judge taking home top honors and Trout will have to compete with the likes of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts, Josh Donaldson, Giancarlo Stanton, and many, many more.

Result: This one’s still up in the air because MVP voting isn’t until November. However, Trout had another fantastic season, slashing .313/.460/.630 with 39 homers and 24 stolen bags while finishing with the second-best WAR in the Majors (9.8) behind Mookie Betts (10.2). He will definitely get some first-place MVP votes but I think Betts takes home the hardware. However I think Trout is the runner-up, which would make this prediction wrong.

Prediction #8: Don Mattingly will be out as Marlins manager before June. This won’t be Mattingly’s fault, nobody can succeed with this roster. However new ownership has pretty much let go of everyone else and Mattingly just logically seems to be the next domino to fall, especially when the Marlins inevitably struggle.

Result: Mattingly actually managed to survive the entire season as Marlins skipper. I was surprised that they didn’t serve him his walking papers, not because of his managerial skills (I think he’s one of the better managers in the game), but because the Marlins had already gotten rid of everyone else. Whether he’s back next year is a different story.

Prediction #9: Pace of Play will continue to be a topic of discussion and the new mound visit rule will be hated by catchers even though we could probably count the number of issues this rule causes on one hand. The new mound visit rule limits non-pitching-change mound visits to 6 per 9 inning games. There have already been players such as Willson Contreras who are outspoken against this, however if you think about it, catchers don’t really visit the mound all that much, especially if their guy is pitching really well. I don’t think this will cause nearly as many problems as some guys think it might.

Result: Once everyone got used to seeing the number of mound visits up on the scoreboard, this rule change completely vanished from mind. There were literally zero issues with this rule that I can think of. Turns out it was a total non-issue.

Prediction #10: The newly-signed pitchers (Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta) will struggle. Darvish has had injury problems throughout his Major League career and Arrieta has been trending downward since winning the 2015 NL Cy Young Award. Im predicting both guys finish with ERA’s in the low-4’s.

Result: Yu Darvish battled injuries all year but struggled mightily when on the mound, as he finished with an ERA of 4.95 in just 40 innings with the Cubs this season. Jake Arrieta was much better, finishing with an ERA of 3.96, though he had gotten off to a fast start with the Phillies. So I would say I was relatively accurate on this one.

So that’s what happened with my predictions this season. Before I close this blog, I just wanted to apologize for how infrequently I’ve been posting. I’ve been so busy recently that writing has taken a back seat. I don’t see this changing anytime soon. But when I get the motivation, I promise I’ll have something out. Thanks for sticking with me. Let me know what you thought of my prediction results in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

2018 MLB Season Preview

Thank you all once again for sticking with me and reading my 30 Clubs in 30 Days series. Now is the part it’s all been leading up to: the 2018 MLB Season Preview. In this preview I’m going to use what I wrote in my 30 Clubs in 30 Days series to paint a picture of how this season is going to go. This will range from player rankings to World Series predictions and everything in between. So without further ado, let’s get to it.

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Season Predictions:

Here’s the compilation of the regular season standings from the projected records I did for each team. An asterisk (*) represents the teams that I predict will win the Wild Card spots.

AL East

1. New York Yankees: 98-64

2. Boston Red Sox*: 95-67

3. Baltimore Orioles: 81-81

4. Toronto Blue Jays: 78-84

5. Tampa Bay Rays: 68-94

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians: 99-63

2. Minnesota Twins: 84-78

3. Kansas City Royals: 74-88

4. Chicago White Sox: 70-92

5. Detroit Tigers: 64-98

AL West

1. Houston Astros: 101-61

2. Anaheim Angels*: 86-76

3. Seattle Mariners: 85-77

4. Texas Rangers: 82-80

5. Oakland Athletics: 77-85

NL East

1. Washington Nationals: 95-67

2. New York Mets: 84-78

3. Philadelphia Phillies: 75-87

4. Atlanta Braves: 71-91

5. Miami Marlins: 62-100

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs: 94-68

2. Milwaukee Brewers*: 88-74

3. St. Louis Cardinals: 85-77

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 76-86

5. Cincinnati Reds: 69-93

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: 100-62

2. Arizona Diamondbacks*: 91-71

3. San Francisco Giants: 85-77

4. Colorado Rockies: 81-81

5. San Diego Padres: 70-92

So based on this information, we can see which teams are ready for success in 2018. Now let’s take a look at my postseason predictions even though game 1 out of 162 hasn’t been played yet.

Wild Card Games:

Boston Red Sox defeat Anaheim Angels

Arizona Diamondbacks defeat Milwaukee Brewers

LDS:

Houston Astros defeat Boston Red Sox

Cleveland Indians defeat New York Yankees

Los Angeles Dodgers defeat Arizona Diamondbacks

Washington Nationals defeat Chicago Cubs

LCS:

Cleveland Indians defeat Houston Astros

Los Angeles Dodgers defeat Washington Nationals

World Series:

Cleveland Indians defeat Los Angeles Dodgers

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Congratulations to the Cleveland Indians on your 2018 World Series victory. In my predictions, the Tribe exorcise their postseason demons from the last couple seasons and win their first World Series since 1948 and third overall. For the Dodgers, their first title since 1988 continues to elude them as they fall in the World Series for the second year in a row. It is also worth mentioning that this matchup is between the two previous World Series losers, as the Indians lost to the Cubs in 2016 and the Dodgers lost to the Astros in 2017.

Power Rankings:

1. Houston Astros

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

3. Cleveland Indians

4. New York Yankees

5. Boston Red Sox

6. Washington Nationals

7. Chicago Cubs

8. Arizona Diamondbacks

9. Milwaukee Brewers

10. Anaheim Angels

11. St. Louis Cardinals

12. Seattle Mariners

13. San Francisco Giants

14. New York Mets

15. Minnesota Twins

16. Texas Rangers

17. Colorado Rockies

18. Baltimore Orioles

19. Toronto Blue Jays

20. Philadelphia Phillies

21. Oakland Athletics

22. Pittsburgh Pirates

23. Kansas City Royals

24. Atlanta Braves

25. Chicago White Sox

26. San Diego Padres

27. Cincinnati Reds

28. Tampa Bay Rays

29. Detroit Tigers

30. Miami Marlins

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Gotta put the reigning champs atop the initial Power Rankings. Plus, they lost virtually nothing in the offseason while getting even stronger with the addition of Gerrit Cole to a pitching rotation that already features two former Cy Young Award winners in Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel. I also have to put the Marlins as the worst team in baseball simply for how much they gave up in the offseason. I also don’t think they will be any good for at least another 3 or 4 years, maybe even 5 because of the generally weak prospect pool they received for their troubles. I still can’t believe Giancarlo Stanton didn’t warrant a return of everything the Yankees had in their farm system. The guy hit 59 home runs and was NL MVP last season. Now let’s get into the positional rankings for this season.

Positional Rankings:

Catcher

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1. Buster Posey-San Francisco Giants

2. Gary Sanchez-New York Yankees

3. Salvador Perez-Kansas City Royals

4. Willson Contreras-Chicago Cubs

5. Yadier Molina-St. Louis Cardinals

6. Tucker Barnhart-Cincinnati Reds

7. Mike Zunino-Seattle Mariners

8. Yasmani Grandal-Los Angeles Dodgers

9. Martin Maldonado-Anaheim Angels

10. Brian McCann-Houston Astros

1st Base

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1. Joey Votto-Cincinnati Reds

2. Paul Goldschmidt-Arizona Diamondbacks

3. Freddie Freeman-Atlanta Braves

4. Anthony Rizzo-Chicago Cubs

5. Cody Bellinger-Los Angeles Dodgers

6. Eric Hosmer-San Diego Padres

7. Jose Abreu-Chicago White Sox

8. Ryan Zimmerman-Washington Nationals

9. Greg Bird-New York Yankees

10. Matt Carpenter-St. Louis Cardinals

2nd Base

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1. Jose Altuve-Houston Astros

2. Robinson Cano-Seattle Mariners

3. Daniel Murphy-Washington Nationals

4. Jonathan Schoop-Baltimore Orioles

5. Dustin Pedroia-Boston Red Sox

6. DJ LeMahieu-Colorado Rockies

7. Javy Baez-Chicago Cubs

8. Brian Dozier-Minnesota Twins

9. Jason Kipnis-Cleveland Indians

10. Starlin Castro-Miami Marlins

3rd Base

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1. Kris Bryant-Chicago Cubs

2. Josh Donaldson-Toronto Blue Jays

3. Nolan Arenado-Colorado Rockies

4. Jose Ramirez-Cleveland Indians

5. Anthony Rendon-Washington Nationals

6. Justin Turner-Los Angeles Dodgers

7. Mike Moustakas-Kansas City Royals

8. Alex Bregman-Houston Astros

9. Evan Longoria-San Francisco Giants

10. Adrian Beltre-Texas Rangers

Shortstop

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1. Francisco Lindor-Cleveland Indians

2. Carlos Correa-Houston Astros

3. Corey Seager-Los Angeles Dodgers

4. Manny Machado-Baltimore Orioles

5. Andrelton Simmons-Anaheim Angels

6. Xander Bogaerts-Boston Red Sox

7. Didi Gregorius-New York Yankees

8. Elvis Andrus-Texas Rangers

9. Trea Turner-Washington Nationals

10. Jean Segura-Seattle Mariners

Left Field

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1. Marcell Ozuna-St. Louis Cardinals

2. Christian Yelich-Milwaukee Brewers

3. Yoenis Cespedes-New York Mets

4. Andrew Benintendi-Boston Red Sox

5. Justin Upton-Anaheim Angels

6. Tommy Pham-St. Louis Cardinals

7. Brett Gardner-New York Yankees

8. Corey Dickerson-Pittsburgh Pirates

9. Trey Mancini-Baltimore Orioles

10. Marwin Gonzalez-Houston Astros

Center Field

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1. Mike Trout-Anaheim Angels

2. Charlie Blackmon-Colorado Rockies

3. George Springer-Houston Astros

4. Lorenzo Cain-Milwaukee Brewers

5. Jackie Bradley Jr-Boston Red Sox

6. Byron Buxton-Minnesota Twins

7. Chris Taylor-Los Angeles Dodgers

8. Odubel Herrera-Philadelphia Phillies

9. Ender Inciarte-Atlanta Braves

10. Michael Conforto-New York Mets

Right Field

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1. Bryce Harper-Washington Nationals

2. Aaron Judge-New York Yankees

3. Mookie Betts-Boston Red Sox

4. Andrew McCutchen-San Francisco Giants

5. Yasiel Puig-Los Angeles Dodgers

6. Steven Souza Jr-Arizona Diamondbacks

7. Josh Reddick-Houston Astros

8. Jay Bruce-New York Mets

9. Avisail Garcia-Chicago White Sox

10. Domingo Santana-Milwaukee Brewers

Designated Hitter

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1. Giancarlo Stanton-New York Yankees

2. JD Martinez-Boston Red Sox

3. Edwin Encarnacion-Cleveland Indians

4. Nelson Cruz-Seattle Mariners

5. Khris Davis-Oakland Athletics

Starting Pitcher

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1. Clayton Kershaw-Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Max Scherzer-Washington Nationals

3. Corey Kluber-Cleveland Indians

4. Chris Sale-Boston Red Sox

5. Stephen Strasburg-Washington Nationals

6. Noah Syndergaard-New York Mets

7. Madison Bumgarner-San Francisco Giants

8. Luis Severino-New York Yankees

9. Zack Greinke-Arizona Diamondbacks

10. Robbie Ray-Arizona Diamondbacks

Relief Pitcher

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1. Kenley Jansen-Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Craig Kimbrel-Boston Red Sox

3. Corey Knebel-Milwaukee Brewers

4. Roberto Osuna-Toronto Blue Jays

5. Aroldis Chapman-New York Yankees

6. Andrew Miller-Cleveland Indians

7. Archie Bradley-Arizona Diamondbacks

8. Zach Britton-Baltimore Orioles

9. Wade Davis-Colorado Rockies

10. Pat Neshek-Philadelphia Phillies

And now onto the preseason awards where I award people for things they haven’t done yet and may not even do at all.

American League MVP: Aaron Judge-RF-New York Yankees

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National League MVP: Bryce Harper-RF-Washington Nationals

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American League Cy Young: Chris Sale-Boston Red Sox

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National League Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard-New York Mets

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American League Rookie of the Year: Willy Adames-SS-Tampa Bay Rays

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National League Rookie of the Year: Ronald Acuna-OF-Atlanta Braves

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American League Manager of the Year: Mike Scioscia-Anaheim Angels

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National League Manager of the Year: Craig Counsell-Milwaukee Brewers

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And finally, on to my bold predictions for the 2018 MLB season. Some will be as harmless as saying “I don’t think the Yankees are going to hit as many home runs as everybody says they will,” and others could get me fired if I had a real job. So let’s get to some predictions.

Prediction: Clayton Kershaw will show slight signs of slowing down now that he’s 30 years old, will post an ERA over 2.50, something he hasn’t done since 2012. People will freak out and panic accordingly.

Prediction: The Yankees’ season will be filled with peaks and valleys en route to 98 wins. Considering Judge and Stanton strike out as often as anyone in baseball, this could lead to some rough slumps at times for the two and their team as a result. However, when they’re on, nobody will be able to beat the Yankees.

Prediction: The Baltimore Orioles will trade Manny Machado to a contender at the trade deadline. The Orioles won’t be super competitive in 2018 and Machado’s contract is up at the end of the year. The smart thing to do would be to trade him to a contender and load up on top prospects. Predicted landing spot? Uhhhh…how about the Brewers? I would say the Yankees but the Orioles’ brass has made it clear they’d prefer not to trade Machado within the division.

Prediction: The Yankees will not break the team home run record. This is mainly because I think teams are going to try and pitch the Yankees a little more carefully this season. Knowing the type of power this team possesses, I doubt they’re going to get great pitches to hit. This may lead to higher walk rates for the team, though.

Prediction: The Marlins won’t be nearly as bad as people think. But let’s be honest, the opinions of the Marlins’ talent can’t be much lower at the moment. However every season there’s a team that everyone thinks is going to be the worst and yet somehow they find ways to be just bad, not historically bad.

Prediction: The American League’s home run king will be an Oakland Athletics player. I can envision this happening, considering the power Khris Davis and Matt Olson showed last season. Matt Chapman could also be a sneaky home run threat as well.

Prediction: Mike Trout will finish outside the top 2 in AL MVP voting for the second consecutive season. This isn’t to say that I think Trout will struggle this season. Far from it. Last season was the first time in Trout’s Major League career (since 2012) that he didn’t finish in the top 2 in AL MVP voting and I think it’s going to happen again. As you saw in my awards predictions, I have Aaron Judge taking home top honors and Trout will have to compete with the likes of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts, Josh Donaldson, Giancarlo Stanton, and many, many more.

Prediction: Don Mattingly will be out as Marlins manager before June. This won’t be Mattingly’s fault, nobody can succeed with this roster. However new ownership has pretty much let go of everyone else and Mattingly just logically seems to be the next domino to fall, especially when the Marlins inevitably struggle.

Prediction: Pace of Play will continue to be a topic of discussion and the new mound visit rule will be hated by catchers even though we could probably count the number of issues this rule causes on one hand. The new mound visit rule limits non-pitching-change mound visits to 6 per 9 inning games. There have already been players such as Willson Contreras who are outspoken against this, however if you think about it, catchers don’t really visit the mound all that much, especially if their guy is pitching really well. I don’t think this will cause nearly as many problems as some guys think it might.

Prediction: The newly-signed pitchers (Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta) will struggle. Darvish has had injury problems throughout his Major League career and Arrieta has been trending downward since winning the 2015 NL Cy Young Award. Im predicting both guys finish with ERA’s in the low-4’s.

So that’s going to do it for my MLB 2018 season preview. Words can’t express how excited I am for Thursday’s Opening Day to roll around, when all 30 teams will be opening on the same day for the first time in over 50 years. Let me know how you think this season’s going to go in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

30 Clubs in 30 Days: Miami Marlins

I’ve decided against doing a whole Combine blog because to be totally honest, I didn’t end up watching as much of it as I usually do. School has been more of a pain in the ass at this time of year than it usually is. So I’m just going to briefly go position by position and list the player who most helped himself and most hurt himself.

Quarterback: 

Helped: Josh Allen-Wyoming

Hurt: Luke Falk-Washington State

Runninbgack:

Helped: Nick Chubb-Georgia

Hurt: Kamryn Pettway-Auburn

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley. Had best combine but was already #1 Overall Prospect

Wide Receiver:

Helped: Antonio Callaway: Florida

Hurt: Auden Tate-Florida State

Tight End:

Helped: Mike Gesicki-Penn State

Hurt: Ryan Izzo-Florida State

Offensive Line:

Helped: Brian O’Neill-Pittsburgh

Hurt: Orlando Brown-Oklahoma

Edge Rusher:

Helped: Lorenzo Carter-Georgia

Hurt: Dorance Armstrong Jr-Kansas

Defensive Line:

Helped: Breeland Speaks-Ole Miss

Hurt: Vita Vea-Washington

Linebacker:

Helped: Shaquem Griffin-Central Florida

Hurt: Chris Worley-Ohio State

Defensive Back:

Helped: Donte Jackson-LSU

Hurt: Jordan Thomas-Oklahoma

Alright, let’s get to the Marlins.

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2017 Results:

Record: 77-85, 20 games behind Washington Nationals, 10 games behind Colorado Rockies for 2nd Wild Card Spot

Notable Offseason Additions: 2B Starlin Castro, OF Cameron Maybin, OF Lewis Brinson, RP Jumbo Diaz, OF Scott Van Slyke, IF Christhian Adames, C Bryan Holaday, Magneuris Sierra

Notable Offseason Subtractions: RF Giancarlo Stanton, CF Christian Yelich, LF Marcell Ozuna, 2B Dee Gordon, C AJ Ellis, OF Ichiro Suzuki

Best Offensive Player: C JT Realmuto

Best Pitcher: Dan Straily

Depth Chart:

C-JT Realmuto, Tomas Telis

1B-Justin Bour, Gary Cooper

2B-Starlin Castro

3B-Martin Prado

SS-JT Riddle, Miguel Rojas

LF-Derek Dietrich

CF-Lewis Brinson

RF-Cameron Maybin, Magneuris Sierra

SP-Dan Straily, Wei-Yin Chen, Jose Urena, Adam Conley, Justin Nicolino

Bullpen-Brad Ziegler (CP), Kyle Barraclough, Junichi Tazawa, Drew Steckenrider, Nick Wittgren, Brian Ellington, Sandy Alcantara

Coaching Staff-

Manager-Don Mattingly (3rd season with Marlins)

Hitting Coach-Mike Pagliarulo

Pitching Coach-Juan Nieves

1st Base Coach-Perry Hill

3rd Base Coach-Fredi Gonzalez

Bench Coach-Tim Wallach

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Shield your eyes, children. Parents, be good parents and don’t let your kids watch the Marlins this season. Don Mattingly has been put in a no-win situation and I’m surprised Derek Jeter hasn’t already sent him packing, too (could be Yankees’ honor or something). But this is far and away the least talented roster in baseball. What was once one of the most promising young rosters in baseball got completely uprooted in a matter of months, as superstar caliber players like their entire outfield of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna are all gone. I mean, my word, look at this lineup.

1. Starlin Castro-2B

2. Martin Prado-3B

3. JT Realmuto-C

4. Justin Bour-1B

5. Derek Dietrich-LF

6. Cameron Maybin-RF

7. Lewis Brinson-CF

8. JT Riddle/Miguel Rojas-SS

9. Pitcher’s Spot

Honestly if you kept their outfield from 2017, this lineup could be seen as imposing, that’s how good Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna are. But without them, there are only a few guys that can be deemed “good” and they’re not happy. Starlin Castro hasn’t played a regular season game in Miami yet and he already wants out, Realmuto wants out, pretty much the only player worth a damn that hasn’t vocally expressed his displeasure with the situation in Miami is Justin Bour. A lot of these guys would probably be in the Minor Leagues on most other teams like Cameron Maybin or JT Riddle. Though I hate to knock Maybin because he threw me a baseball once, but the fact that he’s probably the best outfielder on the team right now is alarming. Lewis Brinson is talented but he’s only played 21 career games and has a career .106 batting average. That’s your everyday centerfielder right there. Now, being one of the top prospects in baseball, he’s expected to get significantly better, but he certainly doesn’t inspire hope at the moment.

during a game  at Marlins Park on September 29, 2017 in Miami, Florida.

Dear God, I didn’t think it was possible to have a starting rotation that makes me weep for the fans, but I think the Marlins may have pulled it off. Dan Straily, who would probably be the #4 or 5 starter for most other teams, is the ace of the Marlins. Last season he went 10-9 with a 4.26 ERA and a 4.58 FIP. His best season was 2016 with the Reds when he had an ERA of 3.76 but a FIP of 4.88. Wei-Yin Chen is one of the least impressive pitchers that I’ve seen live. I saw him pitch for the Orioles once and it was the one time where I ever watched a pitcher and thought to myself “I could totally take this guy yard.” His fastball just looked so flat and easy to see, I’m not shocked that the Indians tagged him for 3 home runs that day. Granted they were all solo shots and were the only runs he allowed that day, but still. Jose Urena has some talent to him, as he had a 3.82 ERA but a 5.20 FIP and a higher walk rate of 3.39 BB/9. There is basically nothing to be excited about by this staff.

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There’s really only one guy in this Marlins bullpen that I liked going into this blog and that’s their closer Brad Ziegler and I don’t even like him in that role. Ziegler is a submarine pitcher with a vicious sinker and that makes him one of the greatest pitchers ever at forcing ground balls. In fact, Ziegler has the second highest ground ball rate of all time after Dennis Springer. But Ziegler is best used when you need to get out of a jam, like runners on first and third, one out, and you have a one-run lead. Ziegler gets a ground ball at such a high frequency that you basically have a 2 out of 3 chance (his ground ball rate) of getting that double play you need. After him, though, the Marlins bullpen does have some decent pieces but nothing too spectacular. Drew Steckenrider is far from a household name but he quietly had a 2.34 ERA and struck out over 14 batters per 9 innings in 37 appearances. I had never heard of this guy prior to writing this but I’m suddenly intrigued by him. Kyle Barraclough was a guy I’d heard of in passing and he had an ERA of 3 and struck out over 10 batters per 9. Both guys had high walk rates, but they also have swing and miss stuff and they’re surprisingly an element of the Marlins that might be worth watching this year.

Overall, the Marlins are going to suck ass. Even in a weak division like the NL East, they’re far and away the worst of the bunch. Not only is there very little talent, but the talent that they actually do have doesn’t want to be there and have publicly expressed their desire to be traded. If the Marlins somehow don’t finish with the worst record in Major League Baseball, Don Mattingly or whomever finishes the season as manager should be a candidate for NL Manager of the Year.

Projected Record: 62-100, Last in all of Major League Baseball

That record’s a bit generous but I find it insulting to a group of guys to project they’ll lose more than 100 games, so that’s my max right there. That’s going to do it for this edition of 30 Clubs in 30 Days, join me tomorrow when I discuss the Milwaukee Brewers, who made some big moves to try and gain some ground on the Cubs in the NL Central after a surprising playoff run in 2017. Let me know what you think of the Marlins’ chances in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

John Farrell Out as Red Sox Manager

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John Farrell was ejected for arguing balls and strikes in his final game at the helm of the Red Sox (photo credit: Boston Herald)

The Red Sox announced today that John Farrell would not return to his managerial duties in 2018 in a unique scenario in that this news is both surprising and unsurprising. Much like the manager’s 5-year stint at the helm, it is unclear how to feel about the job he did as manager. When he took over at the start of the 2013 season, the Red Sox were coming off a disastrous 2012 campaign where they went 69-93 under Bobby Valentine. The Red Sox then went 97-65 in 2013 and won the World Series, defeating the St. Louis Cardinals in 6 games. This is where it gets weird. They follow up a World Series title with basically the same roster and go 71-91 in the second worst title defense of all time (the 1998 Marlins went 54-108. That won’t get topped). 2015 was also a bad year in which the team went 78-84, however they went 28-22 under Torey Lovullo when Farrell was diagnosed with Leukemia. Farrell was able to make a full recovery and returned in 2016, leading the Red Sox to a 93-69 record with the highest scoring offense in baseball. This past season, the offense took a big dip, as they scored nearly 100 fewer runs this season than last, however the pitching took a big step forward. They finished with an identical 93-69 record to the year prior, both of which included division titles and early playoff exits. So with that in mind, let’s look at Farrell’s achievements while Manager of the Red Sox:

Record: 432-378 (sixth most in franchise history)

2013 World Series championship

2013, 2016, 2017 AL East Champions (most division titles in franchise history)

3 first place finishes in the AL East, 2 last place finishes

Overall I would deem Farrell’s five year tenure with the Red Sox a successful one despite some of the questionable decisions he’s made. He had several tremendous accomplishments but there’s also the two last place finishes sandwiched between those winning teams that are hard to overlook.

So who do the Red Sox turn to? Here are a list of some names that could receive a phone call from Dave Dombrowski:

Gene Lamont– Lamont was the Tigers’ third base coach when Dombrowski was there and when the Red Sox were looking for a new manager for the 2012 season, most of the front office wanted him, however they were overruled by Larry Lucchino, who wanted Valentine. Lucchino is no longer in the fold and Lamont is currently the Tigers’ bench coach and has prior managerial experience with the Pittsburgh Pirates from 1997-2000.

Brad Ausmus– Ausmus was a guy that Dave Dombrowski hired in Detroit and since his departure, the Tigers’ record has suffered and Ausmus was fired at the end of the season. Ausmus had a similar tenure to Farrell’s, winning the AL central his first year, finishing last in his second, finishing second in his third, and finishing last this past year. The Tigers’ 64-98 record was the worst in the American League this season.

Ron Gardenhire– Gardenhire had a lot of success as manager of the Minnesota Twins from 2002-2014. Although he never reached a World Series, Gardenhire never really had the talent that he would have in Boston, considering Minnesota is a much smaller market.

Don Mattingly*-Mattingly is a part of this too, as the Marlins are under new ownership (which includes Derek Jeter) and they may look to remove him and hire their own guy. Mattingly has had success as the manager of both the Dodgers and Marlins, though he has yet to make the playoffs in Miami.

Joe Girardi*-Yes, I am including Joe Girardi, the current Yankees skipper in this list. There has been speculation that Girardi may be on his way out in New York, despite the team’s success this season and depending on how a potential exit goes, he may find himself looking for a new job. And what better way for the 2009 World Series champion to get back at his old team than to sign with the enemy?

*-currently managing another team as of this writing

Personally, I would want Gardenhire, but I think Lamont ought to be the favorite, given his popularity with both ownership and Dombrowski himself.