Checking in on my MLB season predictions

So the MLB season has come and gone, with the exception of the 2 game 163’s yet to be played tonight. You might remember earlier this year when I did my 30 Clubs in 30 Days segment (which was more like 30 Clubs in 35 Days due to the fact I went on vacation in the middle of it). Well I capped that off with a preview of the MLB season where I made some predictions. I’m going to link to that blog here. I’m going to sum it up this way: all things considered, my predictions did better than I expected. So I’m going to highlight what I nailed and what I whiffed on before I do any season-ending stuff since the regular season is technically still going.

Predicted Records:

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AL East                        Predicted W/L Record             Actual W/L Record      W/differential

Boston Red Sox                  95-67                                       108-54                           +13

New York Yankees             98-64                                      100-62                            +2

Tampa Bay Rays                 68-94                                      90-72                              +22

Toronto Blue Jays               78-84                                      73-89                              -5

Baltimore Orioles               81-81                                     47-115                            -34

To my credit with the Orioles, I did say in their season preview that the predicted 81 wins were kind of a placeholder because I felt they had the talent to be really good, but they also had the volatility to be really bad. Granted, I didn’t expect them to be THAT bad, but still. Also, Kevin Cash is a serious candidate for AL Manager of the Year after taking a Rays team that I thought had the talent to win 68 games and making them a 90-win squad that was in the playoff hunt until the last week.

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AL Central                        Predicted W/L Record             Actual W/L Record      W/differential

Cleveland Indians                 99-63                                          91-71                               -8

Minnesota Twins                   84-78                                          78-84                               -6

Detroit Tigers                        64-98                                           64-98                               Nailed it

Chicago White Sox                70-92                                          62-100                            -8

Kansas City Royals                74-88                                          58-104                             -16

Aside from the Tigers, it seems I somehow managed to overrate every single team in the AL Central, which is saying a lot because this division sucked this year. I accurately predicted the Tigers would lose 98 games this year, however in my predictions, I predicted that would be the worst record in the American League. It wasn’t even the worst in their division, nor the second worst.

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AL West                        Predicted W/L Record             Actual W/L Record      W/differential

Houston Astros                 101-61                                      103-59                             +2

Oakland Athletics              77-85                                       97-65                               +20

Seattle Mariners                85-77                                       89-73                                +4

Anaheim Angels                 86-76                                      80-82                                -6

Texas Rangers                   82-80                                        67-95                               -15

To my credit, I did pick the A’s as my AL sleeper team this season. But never in my wildest dreams would I have guessed they’d win 97 games. That would normally win a division but this year they’re the second Wild Card team and will play a one-game playoff in Yankee Stadium. I whiffed pretty badly on the Rangers. I honestly thought they were more talented than people gave them credit for. Nope.

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NL East                        Predicted W/L Record             Actual W/L Record      W/differential

Atlanta Braves                     71-91                                     90-72                             +19

Washington Nationals        95-67                                     82-80                             -13

Philadelphia Phillies           75-87                                     80-82                             +5

New York Mets                     84-78                                     77-85                             -7

Miami Marlins                      62-100                                   63-98                            +1

One thing should be noted, the Marlins and Pirates did not reach 162 games played so my predicted W/L totals were going to be wrong regardless. So I take solace in that. But anyway, the Braves were a year ahead of schedule, taking the NL East in a year I figured they’d be testing out their youngsters. I was right, they did test out their youngsters. Except it turns out, those kids are really freaking good. The Nationals on the other hand, were a huge disappointment and will likely head into a downward spiral when Bryce Harper inevitably leaves them. I did predict the Phillies as my NL sleeper team and for a while that looked like a good pick until an AWFUL September doomed them.

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NL Central                        Predicted W/L Record             Actual W/L Record      W/differential

Chicago Cubs                       94-68                                            95-67                              +1

Milwaukee Brewers           88-74                                            95-67                              +7

St. Louis Cardinals             85-77                                             88-74                              +3

Pittsburgh Pirates               76-86                                            82-79                              +6

Cincinnati Reds                   69-93                                             67-95                              -2

The NL Central was the only division where I nailed the order of finish (provided the Cubs beat the Brewers in Game 163). It was also the only division where I didn’t have a single Win Differential that was off by double digits. So I guess I know the NL Central better than any other division?

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NL West                       Predicted W/L Record             Actual W/L Record      W/differential

Colorado Rockies                    81-81                                        91-71                              +10

Los Angeles Dodgers             100-62                                       91-71                              -9

Arizona Diamondbacks         91-71                                        82-80                               -9

San Francisco Giants              85-77                                        73-89                              -12

San Diego Padres                     70-92                                        66-96                              -4

My Rockies going .500 pick was looking pretty good until they went scorched earth on the rest of the league in September and are now playing game 163 against the Dodgers for the right to avoid the Wild Card Game. Arizona was also looking like a good pick to be in the playoff hunt until they did the exact opposite of the Rockies and sharply declined late in the season. The Dodgers recovered from a slow start to get back to the postseason, however they’ve still got to get past the Rockies if they hope to host a playoff game.

So overall I’d say I did pretty well on my win/loss predictions. I nailed the Tigers and was off by 1 on the Cubs and Marlins. In general, the teams I predicted would be good were good and the teams I predicted to be bad were bad. There were a few oddities (Giants, Rangers, Nationals), but in general my predictions were reasonably accurate.

Now on to the more specific predictions that I made at the end of that season preview blog.

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Prediction #1: Clayton Kershaw will show slight signs of slowing down now that he’s 30 years old, will post an ERA over 2.50, something he hasn’t done since 2012. People will freak out and panic accordingly

Result: Kershaw finished with an ERA of 2.73, which is high by his standards (he has a career ERA of 2.39), but considering he was dealing with injuries throughout the season, I was hearing no complaints. So I’d say I was half right on this one: Kershaw did post an ERA over 2.50, but nobody is outwardly panicking.

Prediction #2: The Yankees’ season will be filled with peaks and valleys en route to 98 wins. Considering Judge and Stanton strike out as often as anyone in baseball, this could lead to some rough slumps at times for the two and their team as a result. However, when they’re on, nobody will be able to beat the Yankees.

Result: Kind of? There were a couple stretches in the middle of the season where the Yankees looked vulnerable but in general their peaks were a LOT bigger than their valleys en route to 100 wins. Stanton finished with the 5th highest K-rate in the Majors and Judge would’ve finished right in front of him had he had enough at bats to qualify. I’ll admit, this was kind of a lame prediction in general.

Prediction #3: The Baltimore Orioles will trade Manny Machado to a contender at the trade deadline. The Orioles won’t be super competitive in 2018 and Machado’s contract is up at the end of the year. The smart thing to do would be to trade him to a contender and load up on top prospects. Predicted landing spot? Uhhhh…how about the Brewers? I would say the Yankees but the Orioles’ brass has made it clear they’d prefer not to trade Machado within the division.

Result: Machado was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers shortly after the All Star Game. The prospect package the Orioles got for Machado was pretty good overall, but considering Machado was on an expiring contract, getting elite prospects was probably not in the cards.

Prediction #4: The Yankees will not break the team home run record. This is mainly because I think teams are going to try and pitch the Yankees a little more carefully this season. Knowing the type of power this team possesses, I doubt they’re going to get great pitches to hit. This may lead to higher walk rates for the team, though.

Result: Wrong. The Yankees did break the team home run record, but it took them 161 games to get to that mark. The Yankees finished with 267 team home runs, breaking the 1997 Mariners’ record of 264. They had 6 players with at least 20 home runs and 12 with at least 10. Giancarlo Stanton led the way with 38 dingers.

Prediction #5: The Marlins won’t be nearly as bad as people think. But let’s be honest, the opinions of the Marlins’ talent can’t be much lower at the moment. However every season there’s a team that everyone thinks is going to be the worst and yet somehow they find ways to be just bad, not historically bad.

Result: The Marlins sucked, but they finished with basically the same record I predicted them to finish with (I predicted they would win 62 games, they won 63). They were the worst team in the National League, but because the Orioles were so bad, people kind of forgot about how bad Miami was.

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Prediction #6: The American League’s home run king will be an Oakland Athletics player. I can envision this happening, considering the power Khris Davis and Matt Olson showed last season. Matt Chapman could also be a sneaky home run threat as well.

Result: Damn, did I nail this one. Khris Davis led the Majors with 48 home runs this season, beating out JD Martinez, who had 43. Meanwhile, Matt Chapman looks like a superstar. Olson didn’t progress as much as I’d hoped, but he was still a quality first baseman for the A’s.

Prediction #7: Mike Trout will finish outside the top 2 in AL MVP voting for the second consecutive season. This isn’t to say that I think Trout will struggle this season. Far from it. Last season was the first time in Trout’s Major League career (since 2012) that he didn’t finish in the top 2 in AL MVP voting and I think it’s going to happen again. As you saw in my awards predictions, I have Aaron Judge taking home top honors and Trout will have to compete with the likes of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts, Josh Donaldson, Giancarlo Stanton, and many, many more.

Result: This one’s still up in the air because MVP voting isn’t until November. However, Trout had another fantastic season, slashing .313/.460/.630 with 39 homers and 24 stolen bags while finishing with the second-best WAR in the Majors (9.8) behind Mookie Betts (10.2). He will definitely get some first-place MVP votes but I think Betts takes home the hardware. However I think Trout is the runner-up, which would make this prediction wrong.

Prediction #8: Don Mattingly will be out as Marlins manager before June. This won’t be Mattingly’s fault, nobody can succeed with this roster. However new ownership has pretty much let go of everyone else and Mattingly just logically seems to be the next domino to fall, especially when the Marlins inevitably struggle.

Result: Mattingly actually managed to survive the entire season as Marlins skipper. I was surprised that they didn’t serve him his walking papers, not because of his managerial skills (I think he’s one of the better managers in the game), but because the Marlins had already gotten rid of everyone else. Whether he’s back next year is a different story.

Prediction #9: Pace of Play will continue to be a topic of discussion and the new mound visit rule will be hated by catchers even though we could probably count the number of issues this rule causes on one hand. The new mound visit rule limits non-pitching-change mound visits to 6 per 9 inning games. There have already been players such as Willson Contreras who are outspoken against this, however if you think about it, catchers don’t really visit the mound all that much, especially if their guy is pitching really well. I don’t think this will cause nearly as many problems as some guys think it might.

Result: Once everyone got used to seeing the number of mound visits up on the scoreboard, this rule change completely vanished from mind. There were literally zero issues with this rule that I can think of. Turns out it was a total non-issue.

Prediction #10: The newly-signed pitchers (Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta) will struggle. Darvish has had injury problems throughout his Major League career and Arrieta has been trending downward since winning the 2015 NL Cy Young Award. Im predicting both guys finish with ERA’s in the low-4’s.

Result: Yu Darvish battled injuries all year but struggled mightily when on the mound, as he finished with an ERA of 4.95 in just 40 innings with the Cubs this season. Jake Arrieta was much better, finishing with an ERA of 3.96, though he had gotten off to a fast start with the Phillies. So I would say I was relatively accurate on this one.

So that’s what happened with my predictions this season. Before I close this blog, I just wanted to apologize for how infrequently I’ve been posting. I’ve been so busy recently that writing has taken a back seat. I don’t see this changing anytime soon. But when I get the motivation, I promise I’ll have something out. Thanks for sticking with me. Let me know what you thought of my prediction results in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

What the 2018 MLB All Star Team Would Look Like If We Went By WAR

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So as you’re probably aware, you have all the power to vote for the starters in Major League Baseball’s Midsummer Classic. I’ve voted a few times and voting officially closes at the end of next week so I thought I’d share who I’m voting for. The All Star Game is something that has been dying in popularity in all sports of late mainly because the competitive fire between the two leagues on each side is pretty much gone, especially considering the risk of injury for a game that has no relevance to the standings. But I love it damnit! I flew out to San Diego in 2016 to work the Home Run Derby and go to the All Star Game so this still means something to me.

So for those of you who live under a rock, there is one stat that rules them all for baseball nerds: Wins Above Replacement, or WAR for short. WAR is slightly different depending on which site you use (Fangraphs and Baseball Reference are slightly different formulas) but they typically agree on who is really good. WAR takes into account a player’s hitting, fielding, baserunning, you name it to create how many more games his team is winning because he’s in the lineup rather than your basic replacement-level player. The league average is about 2.0. 2-3 is considered above average, 3-4 is considered really good, 4-5 is considered All Star level, 6+ is MVP level. The best single-season WAR of all time was Babe Ruth’s 1923 season where he was worth 14.1 WAR (second-best is also Ruth at 12.9 in 1921). That season Ruth slashed .393/.545/.764 with 41 home runs and 130 RBI. In the last 10 years, the best WAR belongs to Mike Trout, which is a tie between his 2012 (his rookie year) and 2016 seasons where he was worth 10.5 WAR. So here are the starting 9’s of each team if WAR was the only deciding factor. A couple things to note, for outfield, I’m combining the three positions, which is what actually does happen for All Star balloting. Also since the National League doesn’t use a DH, I’ll be choosing the NL player with the best remaining WAR who isn’t already a starter (the NL manager chooses his DH for the actual All Star Game).

American League

Catcher-Gary Sanchez-New York Yankees (1.3 WAR)

First Base-Matt Olson-Oakland Athletics (1.5 WAR)

Second Base-Jose Altuve-Houston Astros (3.6 WAR)

Third Base-Jose Ramirez-Cleveland Indians (5.1 WAR)

Shortstop-Francisco Lindor-Cleveland Indians (4.4 WAR)

Outfield 1-Mike Trout-Anaheim Angels (6.1 WAR)

Outfield 2-Mookie Betts-Boston Red Sox (4.4 WAR)

Outfield 3-Aaron Judge-New York Yankees (3.6 WAR)

Designated Hitter-JD Martinez-Boston Red Sox (2.9 WAR)

Starting Pitcher-Trevor Bauer-Cleveland Indians (3.9 WAR)

National League

Catcher-JT Realmuto-Miami Marlins (2.9 WAR)

First Base-Freddie Freeman-Atlanta Braves (3.5 WAR)

Second Base-Scooter Gennett-Cincinnati Reds (2.4 WAR)

Third Base-Nolan Arenado-Colorado Rockies (3.3 WAR)

Shortstop-Trea Turner-Washington Nationals (2.4 WAR)

Outfield 1-Lorenzo Cain-Milwaukee Brewers (3.3 WAR)

Outfield 2-Brandon Nimmo-New York Mets (2.8 WAR)

Outfield 3-Nick Markakis-Atlanta Braves (2.4 WAR)

Designated Hitter*-Eugenio Suarez-Cincinnati Reds (2.7 WAR)

Starting Pitcher-Max Scherzer-Washington Nationals (4.2 WAR)

Here are the current leaderboards for the All Star voting (as of the most recent update, which was 2 weeks ago). As a reminder, fans do not vote for pitchers so there aren’t any results on who the top voted pitcher would be, plus the manager selects the starting pitcher on both sides:

AL

C-Gary Sanchez-New York Yankees (1.3 WAR)

1B-Jose Abreu-Chicago White Sox (0.6 WAR)

2B-Jose Altuve-Houston Astros (3.6 WAR)

3B-Jose Ramirez-Cleveland Indians (5.1 WAR)

SS-Manny Machado-Baltimore Orioles (2.7 WAR)

OF1-Mookie Betts-Boston Red Sox (4.4 WAR)

OF2-Mike Trout-Anaheim Angels (6.1 WAR)

OF3-Aaron Judge-New York Yankees (3.6 WAR)

DH-JD Martinez-Boston Red Sox (2.9 WAR)

So the fans and WAR are very much in agreement, as the only two positions that differ are first base and shortstop. Abreu is likely getting the recognition from the fans because not only of his starpower over Matt Olson, but also because of the batting averages (Abreu is hitting .272 while Olson is hitting .246). Abreu’s defense at first base is also subpar while Olson is in a 3-way tie for best DRS at first base in the Majors at +6 (Abreu is 4th worst at -4). Machado is also having a Hell of a year at shortstop, though his WAR is hurt by his defense because despite being known as a defensive wizard at third base, Machado is actually the worst shortstop in the Majors according to DRS. That’s probably why Machado is 1.7 WAR below Francisco Lindor despite their hitting stats being almost identical (seriously, look them up, they’re near carbon copies of one another right now). I’m not a fan of voting Gary Sanchez in for the catcher position not just because he’s a Yankee, but because he’s hitting .190. However he has the highest WAR among all qualifying AL catchers because there are only 2 catchers that actually have enough plate appearances to qualify: him and Tampa’s Wilson Ramos (whom I’ve been voting in over Sanchez).

NL

C-Buster Posey-San Francisco Giants (1.7 WAR)

1B-Freddie Freeman-Atlanta Braves (3.5 WAR)

2B-Ozzie Albies-Atlanta Braves (2.1 WAR)

3B-Nolan Arenado-Colorado Rockies (3.3 WAR)

SS-Brandon Crawford-San Francisco Giants (2.4 WAR)

OF1-Bryce Harper-Washington Nationals (1.2 WAR)

OF2-Nick Markakis-Atlanta Braves (2.4 WAR)

OF3-Matt Kemp-Los Angeles Dodgers (1.7 WAR)

As we can see, WAR and the fans only agree on 3 players starting the All Star game for the NL: Freddie Freeman, Nolan Arenado, and Nick Markakis. Lots of name value going on here, particularly for Bryce Harper, who is in the midst of his worst season, as he’s currently hitting a measly .219, a full 100 points below his final line from last season. Crawford is tied with Trea Turner for WAR so I guess technically the fans aren’t off on that one, but Turner was listed first so I picked him (I’ve been voting in Crawford on my ballot as well). Ozzie Albies is having a great season and is very deserving of an All Star spot, but I do not think he should be starting over Scooter Gennett. Now yes, Gennett is FAR from a household name. But since he joined the Reds last season, he’s been a revelation. He had a 4-homer game last season and he’s only kept it up this year, slashing .332/.369/.532 with 13 home runs and 51 RBI. His .332 batting average leads the National League and as far as I’m concerned, he’s having the best season out of any second baseman in baseball not named Jose Altuve. He should start and I will continue to stuff the ballot with his name.

And now for the grand finale, here’s how I voted in my most recent All Star ballot:

AL

C-Wilson Ramos-Tampa Bay Rays

1B-Mitch Moreland-Boston Red Sox (his WAR does not qualify, but it’s 1.7, which would be tops in the AL if he had enough plate appearances)

2B-Jose Altuve-Houston Astros

3B-Jose Ramirez-Cleveland Indians

SS-Manny Machado-Baltimore Orioles

OF1-Mike Trout-Anaheim Angels-

OF2-Mookie Betts-Boston Red Sox

OF3-Aaron Judge-New York Yankees

DH-JD Martinez-Boston Red Sox

NL

C-JT Realmuto-Miami Marlins

1B-Freddie Freeman-Atlanta Braves

2B-Scooter Gennett-Cincinnati Reds

3B-Nolan Arenado-Colorado Rockies

SS-Brandon Crawford-San Francisco Giants

OF1-Lorenzo Cain-Milwaukee Brewers

OF2-Odubel Herrera-Philadelphia Phillies

OF3-Nick Markakis-Atlanta Braves

My DH for the NL would probably be Christian Yelich of the Milwaukee Brewers if I had that option for a vote. So as you can see, with my ballot, the only places I disagreed with fans AND WAR were with Wilson Ramos (who is hitting .289), Mitch Moreland (who doesn’t qualify just yet), and Odubel Herrera (who is on FIRE right now and may creep up both leaderboards before all is said and done).

If you want to cast your own vote, you can do so here. Vote up to 35 times, so ballot stuffing is a real thing in this (just don’t do what Royals and Cubs fans have been doing these last couple years and stuffing the ballot boxes with their guys). Let me know what your All Star ballot is looking like in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

General Sports: March 31

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-The Red Sox were able to bounce back in a big way against the Rays, as Alex Cora gets his first managerial win 1-0. The one run came across on a Rafael Devers single in the 7th inning to score Xander Bogaerts. One thing I did notice, though, is when the Red Sox won, the outfield did not do their win-dance-repeat routine, instead they just fist bumped. I’m a little disappointed that the dancing appears to be over but a celebratory fist bump is fine, I guess. Also, Red Sox starting pitching was outstanding once again as they have yet to allow a single run. David Price went 7 innings and only let up 4 hits in getting the win. Craig Kimbrel continued to do Kimbrel things and struck out the side in order en route to locking down his first save of the new season.

-Villanova guard Jalen Brunson won National Player of the Year in the NCAA, which feels like an unimportant award, to be truly honest. For whatever reason, basketball’s top individual prize just doesn’t feel like it’s worth anything, unlike the Heisman. Why that is is beyond me, but nonetheless, it is interesting that Brunson won it over Oklahoma’s Trae Young, who put up a ridiculous statline all season. However, as I’ve noticed, this award typically goes to the best player on the best team and by that logic, Brunson is the rightful winner.

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-Speaking of college hoops, the Final Four starts Saturday night as Loyola-Chicago takes on Michigan and Villanova takes on Kansas. As bad as my bracket was for much of the tournament, I actually managed to get 3 out of 4 Final Four teams, with Loyola being the lone exception, of course. I had Arizona coming out of the South but they thought it’d be funny to get blown out by 13th seeded Buffalo in the first round. I had them in the National Championship, losing to Villanova. Nevertheless, it’ll be interesting to see how this Cinderella run for Loyola ends because it just feels like they can do no wrong. Michigan is a really good opponent and they’ve been on fire, too, but the lowest seed they’ve faced so far is the 6th-seeded Houston. Should they win and make it to the National Championship, they will have done so by beating a 14, a 6, a 7, a 9, and an 11 in Loyola. I’m predicting the championship game will be Michigan vs Villanova, which will be very conflicting for my uncle, who attended ‘Nova but is also a big Michigan fan.

-After Aaron Hicks injured his ribs, centerfield may have a vacancy for the Yankees. Jacoby Ellsbury is currently on the DL and Yankees leftfielder Brett Gardner moved into center while rookie Billy McKinney manned left. However, Yankees manager Aaron Boone stated that Aaron Judge may get a look in center when Gardner needs a breather, which could get interesting. Judge has only played right field since his Major League debut in 2016 and he has played it very competently. However if he does end up playing some centerfield, he could wind up being the biggest centerfielder of all time at 6’8 280 pounds. I tried doing a google search for the tallest centerfielders but it didn’t help very much so I may need some help from the readers. But I can’t imagine there’s ever been a heavier one at the very least.

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-The Oakland Raiders cut punter Marquette King. Normally a punter getting cut wouldn’t make news, however King is a special case. He gained notoriety in the NFL for his entertaining social media presence and his on-field antics, which included some fun celebrations when he would pin a punt inside the 20 yard line. And the elephant in the room, he’s the only black punter in the league, there I said it. The guy can kick, though, and I can’t imagine he’ll be out of a job for very long. He did have a pretty lucrative contract for a punter, as he was in the second year of a 5-year $16.5M deal. Jon Gruden also cut talented young tight end Clive Walford, who showed promise in his first two years, then basically did nothing in 2017 as he only caught 9 passes in 13 games.

-Amazon’s All or Nothing series that kind of works like Hard Knocks but follows a team during the regular season is going to follow two football teams this year, one college and one pro. The college team is going to be Michigan while the NFL team is the Cowboys. They were following these teams throughout the season and will compile their footage into a documentary on a team’s season. They started doing this in 2015 with the Arizona Cardinals and it was a blast following a team as it made a run at the Super Bowl, falling just short in their NFC Championship loss. Then in 2016 they followed the Rams and we got to see the inverse, as they fired coach Jeff Fisher midseason and we got to see what it was like for an organization to deal with this kind of upheaval, which was super interesting. For the 2017 season, Michigan went 8-5 including a bowl loss to South Carolina after starting off pretty well while the Cowboys went 9-7 and failed to make the playoffs so these ones seem like they’re going to be more up-and-down rather than all ups with the Cardinals or all downs with the Rams. I’ll definitely be looking forward to this series. The Cowboys one will be released on April 27, also Day 2 of the 2018 NFL Draft while the Michigan one will be released on April 6 (this coming Friday).

-76ers “rookie” Ben Simmons recorded his 11th triple double on the season against the Hawks, which is more than 27 other teams. Simmons is most certainly going to win Rookie of the Year, but I’m still going to bitch and moan since in my brain this technically isn’t his rookie year, as he was drafted in 2016. But whatever, nobody ever really remembers who won Rookie of the Year anyway. You know who won last year? Malcolm Brogdon. Did you know that? Because I sure as Hell forgot, I had to google it.

That’s going to do it for this edition of General Sports. Let me know what you think of the topics discussed in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

2018 MLB Season Preview

Thank you all once again for sticking with me and reading my 30 Clubs in 30 Days series. Now is the part it’s all been leading up to: the 2018 MLB Season Preview. In this preview I’m going to use what I wrote in my 30 Clubs in 30 Days series to paint a picture of how this season is going to go. This will range from player rankings to World Series predictions and everything in between. So without further ado, let’s get to it.

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Season Predictions:

Here’s the compilation of the regular season standings from the projected records I did for each team. An asterisk (*) represents the teams that I predict will win the Wild Card spots.

AL East

1. New York Yankees: 98-64

2. Boston Red Sox*: 95-67

3. Baltimore Orioles: 81-81

4. Toronto Blue Jays: 78-84

5. Tampa Bay Rays: 68-94

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians: 99-63

2. Minnesota Twins: 84-78

3. Kansas City Royals: 74-88

4. Chicago White Sox: 70-92

5. Detroit Tigers: 64-98

AL West

1. Houston Astros: 101-61

2. Anaheim Angels*: 86-76

3. Seattle Mariners: 85-77

4. Texas Rangers: 82-80

5. Oakland Athletics: 77-85

NL East

1. Washington Nationals: 95-67

2. New York Mets: 84-78

3. Philadelphia Phillies: 75-87

4. Atlanta Braves: 71-91

5. Miami Marlins: 62-100

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs: 94-68

2. Milwaukee Brewers*: 88-74

3. St. Louis Cardinals: 85-77

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 76-86

5. Cincinnati Reds: 69-93

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: 100-62

2. Arizona Diamondbacks*: 91-71

3. San Francisco Giants: 85-77

4. Colorado Rockies: 81-81

5. San Diego Padres: 70-92

So based on this information, we can see which teams are ready for success in 2018. Now let’s take a look at my postseason predictions even though game 1 out of 162 hasn’t been played yet.

Wild Card Games:

Boston Red Sox defeat Anaheim Angels

Arizona Diamondbacks defeat Milwaukee Brewers

LDS:

Houston Astros defeat Boston Red Sox

Cleveland Indians defeat New York Yankees

Los Angeles Dodgers defeat Arizona Diamondbacks

Washington Nationals defeat Chicago Cubs

LCS:

Cleveland Indians defeat Houston Astros

Los Angeles Dodgers defeat Washington Nationals

World Series:

Cleveland Indians defeat Los Angeles Dodgers

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Congratulations to the Cleveland Indians on your 2018 World Series victory. In my predictions, the Tribe exorcise their postseason demons from the last couple seasons and win their first World Series since 1948 and third overall. For the Dodgers, their first title since 1988 continues to elude them as they fall in the World Series for the second year in a row. It is also worth mentioning that this matchup is between the two previous World Series losers, as the Indians lost to the Cubs in 2016 and the Dodgers lost to the Astros in 2017.

Power Rankings:

1. Houston Astros

2. Los Angeles Dodgers

3. Cleveland Indians

4. New York Yankees

5. Boston Red Sox

6. Washington Nationals

7. Chicago Cubs

8. Arizona Diamondbacks

9. Milwaukee Brewers

10. Anaheim Angels

11. St. Louis Cardinals

12. Seattle Mariners

13. San Francisco Giants

14. New York Mets

15. Minnesota Twins

16. Texas Rangers

17. Colorado Rockies

18. Baltimore Orioles

19. Toronto Blue Jays

20. Philadelphia Phillies

21. Oakland Athletics

22. Pittsburgh Pirates

23. Kansas City Royals

24. Atlanta Braves

25. Chicago White Sox

26. San Diego Padres

27. Cincinnati Reds

28. Tampa Bay Rays

29. Detroit Tigers

30. Miami Marlins

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Gotta put the reigning champs atop the initial Power Rankings. Plus, they lost virtually nothing in the offseason while getting even stronger with the addition of Gerrit Cole to a pitching rotation that already features two former Cy Young Award winners in Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel. I also have to put the Marlins as the worst team in baseball simply for how much they gave up in the offseason. I also don’t think they will be any good for at least another 3 or 4 years, maybe even 5 because of the generally weak prospect pool they received for their troubles. I still can’t believe Giancarlo Stanton didn’t warrant a return of everything the Yankees had in their farm system. The guy hit 59 home runs and was NL MVP last season. Now let’s get into the positional rankings for this season.

Positional Rankings:

Catcher

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1. Buster Posey-San Francisco Giants

2. Gary Sanchez-New York Yankees

3. Salvador Perez-Kansas City Royals

4. Willson Contreras-Chicago Cubs

5. Yadier Molina-St. Louis Cardinals

6. Tucker Barnhart-Cincinnati Reds

7. Mike Zunino-Seattle Mariners

8. Yasmani Grandal-Los Angeles Dodgers

9. Martin Maldonado-Anaheim Angels

10. Brian McCann-Houston Astros

1st Base

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1. Joey Votto-Cincinnati Reds

2. Paul Goldschmidt-Arizona Diamondbacks

3. Freddie Freeman-Atlanta Braves

4. Anthony Rizzo-Chicago Cubs

5. Cody Bellinger-Los Angeles Dodgers

6. Eric Hosmer-San Diego Padres

7. Jose Abreu-Chicago White Sox

8. Ryan Zimmerman-Washington Nationals

9. Greg Bird-New York Yankees

10. Matt Carpenter-St. Louis Cardinals

2nd Base

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1. Jose Altuve-Houston Astros

2. Robinson Cano-Seattle Mariners

3. Daniel Murphy-Washington Nationals

4. Jonathan Schoop-Baltimore Orioles

5. Dustin Pedroia-Boston Red Sox

6. DJ LeMahieu-Colorado Rockies

7. Javy Baez-Chicago Cubs

8. Brian Dozier-Minnesota Twins

9. Jason Kipnis-Cleveland Indians

10. Starlin Castro-Miami Marlins

3rd Base

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1. Kris Bryant-Chicago Cubs

2. Josh Donaldson-Toronto Blue Jays

3. Nolan Arenado-Colorado Rockies

4. Jose Ramirez-Cleveland Indians

5. Anthony Rendon-Washington Nationals

6. Justin Turner-Los Angeles Dodgers

7. Mike Moustakas-Kansas City Royals

8. Alex Bregman-Houston Astros

9. Evan Longoria-San Francisco Giants

10. Adrian Beltre-Texas Rangers

Shortstop

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1. Francisco Lindor-Cleveland Indians

2. Carlos Correa-Houston Astros

3. Corey Seager-Los Angeles Dodgers

4. Manny Machado-Baltimore Orioles

5. Andrelton Simmons-Anaheim Angels

6. Xander Bogaerts-Boston Red Sox

7. Didi Gregorius-New York Yankees

8. Elvis Andrus-Texas Rangers

9. Trea Turner-Washington Nationals

10. Jean Segura-Seattle Mariners

Left Field

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1. Marcell Ozuna-St. Louis Cardinals

2. Christian Yelich-Milwaukee Brewers

3. Yoenis Cespedes-New York Mets

4. Andrew Benintendi-Boston Red Sox

5. Justin Upton-Anaheim Angels

6. Tommy Pham-St. Louis Cardinals

7. Brett Gardner-New York Yankees

8. Corey Dickerson-Pittsburgh Pirates

9. Trey Mancini-Baltimore Orioles

10. Marwin Gonzalez-Houston Astros

Center Field

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1. Mike Trout-Anaheim Angels

2. Charlie Blackmon-Colorado Rockies

3. George Springer-Houston Astros

4. Lorenzo Cain-Milwaukee Brewers

5. Jackie Bradley Jr-Boston Red Sox

6. Byron Buxton-Minnesota Twins

7. Chris Taylor-Los Angeles Dodgers

8. Odubel Herrera-Philadelphia Phillies

9. Ender Inciarte-Atlanta Braves

10. Michael Conforto-New York Mets

Right Field

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1. Bryce Harper-Washington Nationals

2. Aaron Judge-New York Yankees

3. Mookie Betts-Boston Red Sox

4. Andrew McCutchen-San Francisco Giants

5. Yasiel Puig-Los Angeles Dodgers

6. Steven Souza Jr-Arizona Diamondbacks

7. Josh Reddick-Houston Astros

8. Jay Bruce-New York Mets

9. Avisail Garcia-Chicago White Sox

10. Domingo Santana-Milwaukee Brewers

Designated Hitter

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1. Giancarlo Stanton-New York Yankees

2. JD Martinez-Boston Red Sox

3. Edwin Encarnacion-Cleveland Indians

4. Nelson Cruz-Seattle Mariners

5. Khris Davis-Oakland Athletics

Starting Pitcher

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1. Clayton Kershaw-Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Max Scherzer-Washington Nationals

3. Corey Kluber-Cleveland Indians

4. Chris Sale-Boston Red Sox

5. Stephen Strasburg-Washington Nationals

6. Noah Syndergaard-New York Mets

7. Madison Bumgarner-San Francisco Giants

8. Luis Severino-New York Yankees

9. Zack Greinke-Arizona Diamondbacks

10. Robbie Ray-Arizona Diamondbacks

Relief Pitcher

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1. Kenley Jansen-Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Craig Kimbrel-Boston Red Sox

3. Corey Knebel-Milwaukee Brewers

4. Roberto Osuna-Toronto Blue Jays

5. Aroldis Chapman-New York Yankees

6. Andrew Miller-Cleveland Indians

7. Archie Bradley-Arizona Diamondbacks

8. Zach Britton-Baltimore Orioles

9. Wade Davis-Colorado Rockies

10. Pat Neshek-Philadelphia Phillies

And now onto the preseason awards where I award people for things they haven’t done yet and may not even do at all.

American League MVP: Aaron Judge-RF-New York Yankees

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National League MVP: Bryce Harper-RF-Washington Nationals

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American League Cy Young: Chris Sale-Boston Red Sox

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National League Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard-New York Mets

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American League Rookie of the Year: Willy Adames-SS-Tampa Bay Rays

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National League Rookie of the Year: Ronald Acuna-OF-Atlanta Braves

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American League Manager of the Year: Mike Scioscia-Anaheim Angels

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National League Manager of the Year: Craig Counsell-Milwaukee Brewers

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And finally, on to my bold predictions for the 2018 MLB season. Some will be as harmless as saying “I don’t think the Yankees are going to hit as many home runs as everybody says they will,” and others could get me fired if I had a real job. So let’s get to some predictions.

Prediction: Clayton Kershaw will show slight signs of slowing down now that he’s 30 years old, will post an ERA over 2.50, something he hasn’t done since 2012. People will freak out and panic accordingly.

Prediction: The Yankees’ season will be filled with peaks and valleys en route to 98 wins. Considering Judge and Stanton strike out as often as anyone in baseball, this could lead to some rough slumps at times for the two and their team as a result. However, when they’re on, nobody will be able to beat the Yankees.

Prediction: The Baltimore Orioles will trade Manny Machado to a contender at the trade deadline. The Orioles won’t be super competitive in 2018 and Machado’s contract is up at the end of the year. The smart thing to do would be to trade him to a contender and load up on top prospects. Predicted landing spot? Uhhhh…how about the Brewers? I would say the Yankees but the Orioles’ brass has made it clear they’d prefer not to trade Machado within the division.

Prediction: The Yankees will not break the team home run record. This is mainly because I think teams are going to try and pitch the Yankees a little more carefully this season. Knowing the type of power this team possesses, I doubt they’re going to get great pitches to hit. This may lead to higher walk rates for the team, though.

Prediction: The Marlins won’t be nearly as bad as people think. But let’s be honest, the opinions of the Marlins’ talent can’t be much lower at the moment. However every season there’s a team that everyone thinks is going to be the worst and yet somehow they find ways to be just bad, not historically bad.

Prediction: The American League’s home run king will be an Oakland Athletics player. I can envision this happening, considering the power Khris Davis and Matt Olson showed last season. Matt Chapman could also be a sneaky home run threat as well.

Prediction: Mike Trout will finish outside the top 2 in AL MVP voting for the second consecutive season. This isn’t to say that I think Trout will struggle this season. Far from it. Last season was the first time in Trout’s Major League career (since 2012) that he didn’t finish in the top 2 in AL MVP voting and I think it’s going to happen again. As you saw in my awards predictions, I have Aaron Judge taking home top honors and Trout will have to compete with the likes of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts, Josh Donaldson, Giancarlo Stanton, and many, many more.

Prediction: Don Mattingly will be out as Marlins manager before June. This won’t be Mattingly’s fault, nobody can succeed with this roster. However new ownership has pretty much let go of everyone else and Mattingly just logically seems to be the next domino to fall, especially when the Marlins inevitably struggle.

Prediction: Pace of Play will continue to be a topic of discussion and the new mound visit rule will be hated by catchers even though we could probably count the number of issues this rule causes on one hand. The new mound visit rule limits non-pitching-change mound visits to 6 per 9 inning games. There have already been players such as Willson Contreras who are outspoken against this, however if you think about it, catchers don’t really visit the mound all that much, especially if their guy is pitching really well. I don’t think this will cause nearly as many problems as some guys think it might.

Prediction: The newly-signed pitchers (Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta) will struggle. Darvish has had injury problems throughout his Major League career and Arrieta has been trending downward since winning the 2015 NL Cy Young Award. Im predicting both guys finish with ERA’s in the low-4’s.

So that’s going to do it for my MLB 2018 season preview. Words can’t express how excited I am for Thursday’s Opening Day to roll around, when all 30 teams will be opening on the same day for the first time in over 50 years. Let me know how you think this season’s going to go in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

30 Clubs in 30 Days: New York Yankees

Lots of football news to talk about. The Seahawks released Richard Sherman as they continue to blow up the Legion of Boom, the Eagles traded Torrey Smith to the Panthers for Daryl Worley, and the Browns got BUSY, acquiring Jarvis Landry, Tyrod Taylor, and Damarious Randall while also sending Deshone Kizer to Green Bay. And not one of them cost a first or second round draft pick. What kind of world is this where the Browns look like the most competent organization in football? Absolutely stunning haul. Now the Browns have Tyrod Taylor throwing to Josh Gordon and Jarvis Landry with potentially Saquon Barkley in the backfield. The Browns may actually win a game this season. But enough football, let’s get to 30 Clubs in 30 Days with the New York Yankees.

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2017 Results:

Record: 91-71, 2 games behind Boston Red Sox, hosted AL Wild Card Game, defeated Minnesota Twins, defeated Cleveland Indians in ALDS, lost to Houston Astros in ALCS

Notable Offseason Additions: RF Giancarlo Stanton, 3B Brandon Drury, 1B Adam Lind, OF Shane Robinson

Notable Offseason Subtractions: 3B Todd Frazier, 3B Chase Headley, SP Jaime Garcia, SP Michael Pineda, 2B Starlin Castro, DH Matt Holliday

Best Offensive Player: RF Aaron Judge

Best Pitcher: Luis Severino

Depth Chart:

C-Gary Sanchez, Austin Romine

1B-Greg Bird

2B-Ronald Torreyes, Gleyber Torres, Tyler Wade

3B-Brandon Drury

SS-Didi Gregorius

LF-Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier

CF-Aaron Hicks, Jacoby Ellsbury

RF-Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton (DH)

SP-Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia, Jordan Montgomery

Bullpen-Aroldis Chapman (CP), Dellin Betances, Tommy Kahnle, Daniel Robertson, Adam Warren, Chad Green, Chasen Shreve

Coaching Staff:

Manager-Aaron Boone (1st season with Yankees)

Hitting Coach-Marcus Thames

Pitching Coach-Larry Rothschild

1st Base Coach-Reggie Willits

3rd Base Coach-Phil Nevin

Bench Coach-Josh Bard

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I can’t remember ever seeing a coaching staff where  every member (except Larry Rothschild, whom I feel like has been Yankees pitching coach forever) played in the Major Leagues during my childhood. But that’s beside the point because holy shit do the Yankees look dangerous this season. It’s not a guarantee that they’ll be successful, we still have to actually play the games, but just look at this lineup.

1. Brett Gardner-LF

2. Aaron Judge-RF

3. Giancarlo Stanton-DH

4. Gary Sanchez-C

5. Greg Bird-1B

6. Didi Gregorius-SS

7. Brandon Drury-3B

8. Ronald Torreyes/Gleyber Torres-2B

9. Aaron Hicks/Jacoby Ellsbury-CF

The Major League record for team home runs is 264 by the 1997 Seattle Mariners. Last season Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton combined for 112 between the two of them. If the Yankees don’t set the new single season team home run record, it’ll be considered a down year. After acquiring Stanton from the Marlins in the offseason for a bag of peanuts, the Yankees now boast both home run champs from the AL and NL from last season. Aaron Judge set a rookie record with 52 home runs last season en route to winning AL Rookie of the Year and runner-up for AL MVP while Stanton belted 59 bombs and won NL MVP. Now he moves to an even more hitter friendly ballpark in Yankee Stadium where the fences are about 30 feet closer than at Marlins Park. Give me a break. Even if you decided to intentionally walk both Judge and Stanton for some reason, you’ve got Gary Sanchez waiting in the wings, who led all Major League catchers with 33 home runs in 2017. Didi Gregorius has also become a power threat at shortstop, as he hit a career high 25 home runs last season. There isn’t an easy out in this lineup and opposing pitchers are going to have nightmares trying to prepare for them.

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Don’t sleep on the Yankees pitchers. Luis Severino was a breakout star in the Bronx last season, going 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and striking out over 10 batters per 9 innings while being worth 5.7 WAR. Masahiro Tanaka had a down year in 2017, as his ERA of 4.74 was far and away the worst of his career. However Tanaka’s previous worst ERA in his 4 seasons in the Majors was 3.51, which is a quality number. Despite posting the worst ERA of his career in 2017, Tanaka actually posted his career-best strikeout rate of 9.79. He did get tagged by the long ball quite a bit, as his 1.77 HR/9 was third worst in the Majors and worst amongst pitchers who spent the entire season in the American League (Jeremy Hellickson’s 1.92 was worst but he went from the NL Phillies to the AL Orioles). Tanaka had previously been very good at keeping the ball in the yard, as he had a sub-1 HR/9 in 2 of his previous 3 seasons. Then there’s 2017 trade deadline acquisition Sonny Gray, who was inconsistent upon joining the Yankees but overall had a very solid season, which was very encouraging given his poor 2016 in Oakland. Gray went 4-7 with a 3.72 ERA in pinstripes while striking out nearly 9 batters per 9 innings. And let’s not forget CC Sabathia, who had his best season since 2012 by going 14-5 with a 3.69 ERA while also pitching some inspired ball in the postseason. This unit is going to get overshadowed by the powerful lineup, but they are more than capable of shutting teams down for 9 innings.

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The bullpen for the Yankees last season was fantastic overall but there were some inconsistencies, particularly with their two best relievers, closer Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances. Chapman had a 3.22 ERA and only 22 saves last season but still struck out over 12 batters per 9, but that’s to be expected when you’re the author of the fastest pitch ever thrown in the history of the game at 105.4 mph. However Chapman was disastrous in May and August, as he had an ERA over 10 in May and 9 in August. Betances had his inconsistencies as well. While his overall numbers were pretty good (he had an ERA of 2.87 and struck out over 15 batters per 9), he struggled mightily with his control, walking over 6 batters per 9 innings. Betances has some of the most electric stuff in the game, as his fastball consistently hits 98 mph while his slider is like something out of the Matrix. He just needs to maintain better control. After those guys, though, there’s a lot of underrated talent in the Yankees bullpen. David Robertson returned to the Yankees after 2 and a half years with the White Sox and was fantastic in 2017, posting a 1.84 ERA and struck out nearly 13 batters per 9 innings. Tommy Kahnle was also tremendous with a 2.59 ERA and struck out nearly 14 batters per 9 as he too was an addition from the White Sox. This is an extremely talented bullpen but command is an issue. If they can limit the walks, this team will be even more dangerous.

Overall, the Yankees have one of the deadliest rosters on paper in all of baseball. The one knock against them that I could find is that they’re probably going to strike out a lot, as Judge and Stanton in particular whiff more than pretty much anybody in the league. But when this team does make contact, crooked numbers will follow. This Yankees team is a very legitimate threat to win their first World Series since 2009 and they’re going to be in a fight to the death with the Red Sox for the AL East title. Hopefully the acquisitions of Stanton to the Yankees and JD Martinez to the Red Sox are exactly what this rivalry needs to rejuvenate itself. It hasn’t felt the same since the 2004 ALCS because I mean, come on, how can you top that?

Projected Record: 98-64, win AL East

That’s going to do it for this edition of 30 Clubs in 30 Days. Join me tomorrow when I discuss the Oakland Athletics, who always seem to teeter between “darkhorse” and “dumpster fire.” Let me know what you think of the Yankees’ chances in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10. Also, I will once again be on the call for college baseball on the Big Ten Network, so check out Indiana vs Pacific at 2.

Giancarlo Stanton traded to the Yankees

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What in the actual fuck. This is perhaps the worst way I could’ve woken up this morning, not just for the news. So last night, I was flipping through channels on my TV and found a Star Wars marathon on TNT. It was the end of the Phantom Menace when I got there so naturally I had to watch for that kickass Darth Maul fight (because that’s really the movie’s only saving grace). Attack of the Clones was up next so naturally I figured I’d need some liquor to enjoy it. I decided to do a fun little drinking game where I take a shot of the Kraken rum (94 proof) every time a lightsaber was ignited. I’m paying for it right now. Then I open my blinds and see some snow on the ground. Child me would be absolutely beaming right now but adult me is pissed off because I hate snow. Luckily I have nowhere to be so the roads aren’t a real concern. Then I get a cryptic text from a friend saying “this sucks so much” and somehow I knew what had happened. So I wake up hungover, there’s snow on the ground, and Giancarlo Stanton was traded to the Yankees for basically a washing machine.

So I did a Stanton trade speculation blog a little while ago, which you can read here, and in that blog I did outline the Yankees as potential suitors. But Jesus I didn’t think it would actually happen! I was so convinced it would be the Dodgers because it just seemed too obvious. They had so many prospects to offer. The Yankees have some good ones too, but reports are they’re not even included in the deal! That’s right, it appears that neither Gleyber Torres, Justus Sheffield, or Estevan Florial are involved in this deal. Hey Miami, why the fuck would you accept a trade package for the reigning NL MVP that didn’t include the best prospects the other team has to offer?! It’s unknown what the exact package Miami is receiving in this deal, but reports are that Yankees second baseman Starlin Castro is among those headed to Miami. Okay, fine, he’s a good player and is coming off a good stint in pinstripes. But wasn’t the goal to cut your payroll? Castro is set to make $22.8 million over the remaining 2 years on his contract, averaging out to about $11 million a year. This essentially halves what would have come off the books had the Stanton trade just been for prospects. But the Yankees aren’t even taking on the whole salary either! Sure, they’re taking on the vast majority of it, but over the life of the deal the Marlins will be taking on around $30 million of it (about $3 million a year). Why in the Hell would you trade the guy voted as the best player in the league and still pay him $3 million a year to play for another team? While for an MLB team that’s not much in the grand scheme of things, it’s still baffling how little the Marlins are really receiving for this guy. It’s not like he’s a locker room cancer that they had to get out of there, though to be fair I don’t really know anything about Stanton’s personality but he doesn’t strike me as a toxic dude. The only explanation I can think of is because it’s Derek Jeter in the owner’s box. That’s just the salty Red Sox fan in me speaking, but you can’t deny it looks fishy (see what I did there? Marlins? Fishy? God I don’t know how I’m still single).

I’ve done all this bitching and haven’t even mentioned the fact that it’s going to be Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton hitting back-to-back with Gary Sanchez lurking behind them. Just look at this potential fucking lineup.

1. Brett Gardner-LF

2. Aaron Judge-RF

3. Giancarlo Stanton-DH

4. Gary Sanchez-C

5. Didi Gregorius-SS

6. Greg Bird-1B

7. Chase Headley-3B

8. Jacoby Ellsbury/Aaron Hicks-CF

9. Ronald Torreyes-2B

How the Hell do you pitch to that?! The Yankees scored the second most runs in the Majors last season and they just added the guy who hit the most home runs! The Yankees now have the AL home run king in Judge and the NL home run king in Stanton hitting back-to-back with the best power hitting catcher in Gary Sanchez right behind them. Now yes, both guys do strike out a lot and the Red Sox have the best strikeout artist in the majors in Chris Sale. But that is an imposing duo to have to pitch to. Judge is about 6’7 and 280 pounds while Stanton is 6’6 and 245, both all muscle. Add in the fact that Yankee Stadium has one of the shortest fences in baseball and we may be seeing some records get shattered. The foul poles in both left and right field are 314 feet from home, which Stanton could reach if he were holding the bat with his feet. That’s about 30 feet shorter than the poles at Marlins Park. I know it doesn’t sound like much, but that’s the difference between a flyout and a run on the board. Stanton hit 59 home runs this season while doing much of his damage in a relatively pitcher-friendly park. Now he gets to do it with the walls 30 feet closer? If he doesn’t achieve his goal of passing Roger Maris (who he has stated is the real single season home run king, not Bonds, McGwire, or Sosa), I will be shocked.

Fuck I’m so mad. I’m so mad I dropped more f-bombs in this blog than I had in all my other blogs combined (I try and keep it relatively SFW here). I’m so mad, I’m not even going to bother asking you to leave a comment or hit me up on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10 or even contribute to my damn Patreon. I’m just so steaming right now. This is not going to be a fun season for anybody outside of the Bronx. Sure it will be fun seeing how far these guys can hit it, but they’ll be doing it in the wrong uniforms. FUCK!

MLB Awards Season

Yesterday was my playoff preview, which you can read here. Today, we discuss who I think should win the major awards in baseball, as well as a few that aren’t technically real awards. Some are obvious (AL Rookie of the Year), some are not (NL MVP). Without further ado, let’s begin.

AL MVP: Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros

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Jose Altuve has been a front-runner for AL MVP the last 3 years. (photo credit: Grantland)

This was a tough one, as Yankees right fielder and rookie sensation Aaron Judge has been unbelievable this season (more on him later). But Jose Altuve has been the catalyst for arguably the best team in baseball and has been doing so at a steady pace throughout the season. He hit .346 this year with 24 home runs, 81 RBI, and 32 stolen bases to go along with 112 runs scored. In addition to his offensive prowess, he has also been an excellent defender at a premium position and is a menace on the basepaths. You could also argue that nobody is more important to his team. Altuve is what makes the Astros go and he has been doing this for quite some time now. It’s time he gets the recognition he deserves.

Others receiving consideration: Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankes; Corey Kluber, P, Cleveland Indians; Jose Ramirez, UTIL, Cleveland Indians

NL MVP: Charlie Blackmon, CF, Colorado Rockies

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Charlie Blackmon put on perhaps his finest performance in 2017 (photo credit: The Denver Post)

This was one of the toughest decisions I had to make. You would need three or four hands to count how many guys could feasibly win MVP in the NL this season. There’s Giancarlo Stanton of the Miami Marlins, whose 59 home runs captivated the nation. There’s Nolan Arenado of the Rockies, whose defensive wizardry and capacity for driving in runs was a sight to behold. Joey Votto did things human beings shouldn’t be allowed to do.

But Charlie Blackmon, Arenado’s teammate, has to be my pick here. He hit .331 with 37 home runs, 104 RBI, 137 runs scored and slugged .601. All out of the leadoff spot in the lineup. He made the Rockies prolific offense go and Arenado doesn’t lead the Majors in RBI for most of the season without Blackmon at the top of this lineup. Blackmon even drove in 100 runs himself out of the leadoff spot, something unheard of throughout the history of the game. Blackmon’s 104 RBI is actually a Major League record for a guy who primarily batted leadoff. Blackmon does it all for this Rockies team that finds itself in a playoff spot for the first time since 2009.

Others receiving consideration: Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins; Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies; Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds; Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks; Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals

AL Cy Young: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

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Corey Kluber has been absolutely dominant down the stretch (photo credit: Chicago Tribune)

Yes, I wrote a blog saying that Chris Sale should win the award. But that was before delving into their September stats. In September, Sale’s ERA was 3.72, with 3 games giving up at least 3 runs and 2 games where he gave up 0. His inconsistency this month forced me to drop him from the race. Kluber, on the other hand, has only gotten hotter. His September ERA was 0.84, allowing all of 4 earned runs through the entire month. Sale allowed 4 runs on 2 separate occasions in September. It’s tough to pick against a guy who struck out 308 batters, but his inconsistency when the other guy was as dominant as ever is hard to overlook.

Others receiving consideration: Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

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Max Scherzer seems destined to win his second straight Cy Young Award, third overall (photo credit: Sports Illustrated)

Scherzer missed a little bit of time late in the season due to injury but that didn’t stop him from reaching 200 innings for the fifth consecutive season. He’s the ace of a dominating Nationals pitching rotation, striking out 12 batters per 9 innings while holding an ERA of 2.51. Clayton Kershaw was as nasty as he always is but he missed far too much time for me to seriously consider him unseating Scherzer, who I have winning this award for the second consecutive season.

Others receiving consideration: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers; Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees

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One of 52 bombs hit by Aaron Judge this season (photo credit: MLB.com)

Was there any other option? The argument could be made that Judge should be MVP as well, which would be the third time ever a rookie of the year also won MVP (Fred Lynn and Ichiro were the other two). Judge hit .284 with 52 home runs and 114 RBI, leading the majors in Fangraphs WAR at 8.2. His 52 dingers were the most ever by a rookie, breaking the previous mark of 49 set by Mark McGwire back in 1987.

Others receiving consideraton: Andrew Benintendi, LF, Boston Red Sox; Mitch Haniger, RF, Seattle Mariners

NL Rookie of the Year: Cody Bellinger, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Cody Bellinger has been a driving force behind the Dodgers 104-win season (photo credit: True Blue LA)

Like Judge, this was also an easy pick. When Adrian Gonzalez went down for the Dodgers, it fell on Bellinger to pick up the slack. He did that and then some. Bellinger hit 39 home runs and drove in 97 runs for the Dodgers this year, keeping up the franchise’s long history of rookie success. Rhys Hoskins of the Phillies was also a consideration, as the start he got off to was one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen. He ended up hitting 18 home runs in just 50 games this year, which would put him on pace for over 55 for an entire regular season. However, Hoskins didn’t play enough to seriously be considered a threat to Bellinger.

Others receiving consideration: Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies; Paul DeJong, SS, St. Louis Cardinals

Reliever of the Year: Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Kenley Jansen has been about as deadly as any reliever in baseball (photo credit: InsideSoCal.com)

Another nail-biter, Jansen barely beats out Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel. While Jansen’s K rate is lower (14.36 against Kimbrel’s 16. 43), his walk rate is half of Kimbrel’s and his home run rate is lower as well. There is a slight ERA difference in Jansen’s favor (1.32 vs 1.43). I wouldn’t argue against Kimbrel winning this award by any means, but I give Jansen the slight edge here.

Others receiving consideration: Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox

Platinum Glove (best defender): Andrelton Simmons, SS, Anaheim Angels

Simmons is well-known for his defensive wizardry (he had a heck of a season at the plate as well, but we’re not going to talk about that when discussing a defensive award) and he kept up his reputation by leading the Majors in Defensive Runs Saved with 32. Mookie Betts of the Red Sox was next at 31 but after those two there was a steep drop-off. In fact, the next closest shortstop to Simmons was Trevor Story with 11. To clear things up, Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) measures how many runs you prevent with your defense throughout the season. A DRS of 0 is considered average. Simmons repeatedly turns insane highlight plays on a daily basis and every year this award will be his to lose.

Others receiving consideration: Mookie Betts, RF, Boston Red Sox; Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins

AL Gold Gloves:

P-Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays

C-Martin Maldonado-Anaheim Angels

1B-Mitch Moreland, Boston Red Sox

2B-Ian Kinsler, Detroit Tigers

3B-Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays

SS-Andrelton Simmons, Anaheim Angels

LF-Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

CF-Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

RF-Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

NL Gold Gloves:

P-R. A. Dickey, Atlanta Braves

C-Tucker Barnhart, Cincinnati Reds

1B-Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

2B-DJ LeMahieu, Colorado Rockies

3B-Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

SS-Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies

LF-Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins

CF-Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds

RF-Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers

AL Silver Sluggers

C-Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees

1B-Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals

2B-Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

3B-Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians

SS-Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

LF-Justin Upton, Detroit Tigers/Anaheim Angels

CF-Mike Trout, Anaheim Angels

RF-Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

DH-Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners

NL Silver Sluggers

C-Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants

1B-Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

2B-Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals

3B-Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

SS-Zack Cozart, Cincinnati Reds

LF-Tommy Pham, St. Louis Cardinals

CF-Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies

RF-Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins

P-Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates

Comeback Player of the Year: Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins

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Giancarlo Stanton’s 59 home runs put the world on notice (photo credit: CBS Sports)

This is the start of the MLB awards that aren’t technically real. I’ll be giving this award to a guy who had a poor season the year prior but bounced back with a great one. This year, it’s Giancarlo Stanton. Last season, when I was at the Home Run Derby in San Diego, Stanton put on a damn clinic, hitting 61 home runs (the previous derby record had been 41). He wasn’t in the All Star Game that season, having been hitting in the low .200s at the break. Pedro Gomez asked Stanton after he had won why he did the Derby when he wasn’t in the All Star Game (a weird question to ask, if not a little mean if you ask me), Stanton looked a tad offended but shrugged it off, raised the trophy, and said “I came here for this bad boy.” This season, Stanton has turned the entire Major Leagues into his own personal home run derby, belting 59 home runs, the most since Barry Bonds’ record-setting 73 in 2001. Stanton wasn’t just all about the long balls, though. He also managed to hit .281 and walked 12.3% of the time.

Others receiving consideration: Bryce Harper, RF, Washington Nationals; Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates; Zack Greinke, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Breakout Star of the Year: Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees

Last season, when he played only 27 games after a late-season callup, Judge did not look great. There was a hole in his swing the size of a hipster’s ear lobe as he struck out at a 44.2% rate. This season, while his strikeout rate is still high (30.7%), Judge has been sending the pitches he does end up hitting into other area codes. The thing that impressed me most about Judge wasn’t how many home runs he was hitting, but where they were going. And I don’t just mean distance. Judge was hitting just as many home runs to left field as he was to center field and right. You couldn’t focus on one spot to try and get him out like you can with most other power hitters because Judge can take the outside pitches just as far as the inside ones. Below is Aaron Judge’s spray chart this season, courtesy of Fangraphs.chart

Others receiving consideration: Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies; Tommy Pham, LF, St. Louis Cardinals; Jimmy Nelson, SP, Milwaukee Brewers; Robbie Ray, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks; Cody Bellinger, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers; Chris Taylor, UTIL, Los Angeles Dodgers; Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays/Baltimore Orioles

Defensive Play of the Year: Austin Jackson, OF, Cleveland Indians

Hitting Performance of the Year: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals

Rendon’s line on April 30th against the New York Mets: 6-6 with 3 home runs, 10 RBI, and a double.

Also receiving consideration: Scooter Gennett on June 6th against the St. Louis Cardinals. 5-5 with 4 home runs and 10 RBI

Pitching Performance of the Year: Rich Hill, Los Angeles Dodgers

Poor guy. Rich Hill pulls a Harvey Haddix and goes 9 no-hit (nearly 9 perfect but for a Logan Forsythe error) innings but his team doesn’t get him a single run, then he gives up a walk-off home run to Josh Harrison in the 10th. First time ever that a no hitter is broken up by a walk-off home run in extra innings. Oddly enough, this game came the day after Sports Illustrated published a cover that asked if the Dodgers were the greatest team of all time. Rich Hill’s line on August 23rd against the Pittsburgh Pirates: 9+ innings, 1 hits, 0 walks, 1 run, 10 strikeouts, 99 pitches needed.

Others receiving consideration: Edinson Volquez’s no hitter on June 3rd against the Arizona Diamondbacks

Most enjoyable player to watch: Javy Baez, 2B/SS, Chicago Cubs


There’s more, but I think these two videos get the job done.

Others receiving consideration: Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians; Andrelton Simmons, SS, Anaheim Angels

Those are my awards picks. Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments section or hit me up on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.