What the 2018 MLB All Star Team Would Look Like If We Went By WAR

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So as you’re probably aware, you have all the power to vote for the starters in Major League Baseball’s Midsummer Classic. I’ve voted a few times and voting officially closes at the end of next week so I thought I’d share who I’m voting for. The All Star Game is something that has been dying in popularity in all sports of late mainly because the competitive fire between the two leagues on each side is pretty much gone, especially considering the risk of injury for a game that has no relevance to the standings. But I love it damnit! I flew out to San Diego in 2016 to work the Home Run Derby and go to the All Star Game so this still means something to me.

So for those of you who live under a rock, there is one stat that rules them all for baseball nerds: Wins Above Replacement, or WAR for short. WAR is slightly different depending on which site you use (Fangraphs and Baseball Reference are slightly different formulas) but they typically agree on who is really good. WAR takes into account a player’s hitting, fielding, baserunning, you name it to create how many more games his team is winning because he’s in the lineup rather than your basic replacement-level player. The league average is about 2.0. 2-3 is considered above average, 3-4 is considered really good, 4-5 is considered All Star level, 6+ is MVP level. The best single-season WAR of all time was Babe Ruth’s 1923 season where he was worth 14.1 WAR (second-best is also Ruth at 12.9 in 1921). That season Ruth slashed .393/.545/.764 with 41 home runs and 130 RBI. In the last 10 years, the best WAR belongs to Mike Trout, which is a tie between his 2012 (his rookie year) and 2016 seasons where he was worth 10.5 WAR. So here are the starting 9’s of each team if WAR was the only deciding factor. A couple things to note, for outfield, I’m combining the three positions, which is what actually does happen for All Star balloting. Also since the National League doesn’t use a DH, I’ll be choosing the NL player with the best remaining WAR who isn’t already a starter (the NL manager chooses his DH for the actual All Star Game).

American League

Catcher-Gary Sanchez-New York Yankees (1.3 WAR)

First Base-Matt Olson-Oakland Athletics (1.5 WAR)

Second Base-Jose Altuve-Houston Astros (3.6 WAR)

Third Base-Jose Ramirez-Cleveland Indians (5.1 WAR)

Shortstop-Francisco Lindor-Cleveland Indians (4.4 WAR)

Outfield 1-Mike Trout-Anaheim Angels (6.1 WAR)

Outfield 2-Mookie Betts-Boston Red Sox (4.4 WAR)

Outfield 3-Aaron Judge-New York Yankees (3.6 WAR)

Designated Hitter-JD Martinez-Boston Red Sox (2.9 WAR)

Starting Pitcher-Trevor Bauer-Cleveland Indians (3.9 WAR)

National League

Catcher-JT Realmuto-Miami Marlins (2.9 WAR)

First Base-Freddie Freeman-Atlanta Braves (3.5 WAR)

Second Base-Scooter Gennett-Cincinnati Reds (2.4 WAR)

Third Base-Nolan Arenado-Colorado Rockies (3.3 WAR)

Shortstop-Trea Turner-Washington Nationals (2.4 WAR)

Outfield 1-Lorenzo Cain-Milwaukee Brewers (3.3 WAR)

Outfield 2-Brandon Nimmo-New York Mets (2.8 WAR)

Outfield 3-Nick Markakis-Atlanta Braves (2.4 WAR)

Designated Hitter*-Eugenio Suarez-Cincinnati Reds (2.7 WAR)

Starting Pitcher-Max Scherzer-Washington Nationals (4.2 WAR)

Here are the current leaderboards for the All Star voting (as of the most recent update, which was 2 weeks ago). As a reminder, fans do not vote for pitchers so there aren’t any results on who the top voted pitcher would be, plus the manager selects the starting pitcher on both sides:

AL

C-Gary Sanchez-New York Yankees (1.3 WAR)

1B-Jose Abreu-Chicago White Sox (0.6 WAR)

2B-Jose Altuve-Houston Astros (3.6 WAR)

3B-Jose Ramirez-Cleveland Indians (5.1 WAR)

SS-Manny Machado-Baltimore Orioles (2.7 WAR)

OF1-Mookie Betts-Boston Red Sox (4.4 WAR)

OF2-Mike Trout-Anaheim Angels (6.1 WAR)

OF3-Aaron Judge-New York Yankees (3.6 WAR)

DH-JD Martinez-Boston Red Sox (2.9 WAR)

So the fans and WAR are very much in agreement, as the only two positions that differ are first base and shortstop. Abreu is likely getting the recognition from the fans because not only of his starpower over Matt Olson, but also because of the batting averages (Abreu is hitting .272 while Olson is hitting .246). Abreu’s defense at first base is also subpar while Olson is in a 3-way tie for best DRS at first base in the Majors at +6 (Abreu is 4th worst at -4). Machado is also having a Hell of a year at shortstop, though his WAR is hurt by his defense because despite being known as a defensive wizard at third base, Machado is actually the worst shortstop in the Majors according to DRS. That’s probably why Machado is 1.7 WAR below Francisco Lindor despite their hitting stats being almost identical (seriously, look them up, they’re near carbon copies of one another right now). I’m not a fan of voting Gary Sanchez in for the catcher position not just because he’s a Yankee, but because he’s hitting .190. However he has the highest WAR among all qualifying AL catchers because there are only 2 catchers that actually have enough plate appearances to qualify: him and Tampa’s Wilson Ramos (whom I’ve been voting in over Sanchez).

NL

C-Buster Posey-San Francisco Giants (1.7 WAR)

1B-Freddie Freeman-Atlanta Braves (3.5 WAR)

2B-Ozzie Albies-Atlanta Braves (2.1 WAR)

3B-Nolan Arenado-Colorado Rockies (3.3 WAR)

SS-Brandon Crawford-San Francisco Giants (2.4 WAR)

OF1-Bryce Harper-Washington Nationals (1.2 WAR)

OF2-Nick Markakis-Atlanta Braves (2.4 WAR)

OF3-Matt Kemp-Los Angeles Dodgers (1.7 WAR)

As we can see, WAR and the fans only agree on 3 players starting the All Star game for the NL: Freddie Freeman, Nolan Arenado, and Nick Markakis. Lots of name value going on here, particularly for Bryce Harper, who is in the midst of his worst season, as he’s currently hitting a measly .219, a full 100 points below his final line from last season. Crawford is tied with Trea Turner for WAR so I guess technically the fans aren’t off on that one, but Turner was listed first so I picked him (I’ve been voting in Crawford on my ballot as well). Ozzie Albies is having a great season and is very deserving of an All Star spot, but I do not think he should be starting over Scooter Gennett. Now yes, Gennett is FAR from a household name. But since he joined the Reds last season, he’s been a revelation. He had a 4-homer game last season and he’s only kept it up this year, slashing .332/.369/.532 with 13 home runs and 51 RBI. His .332 batting average leads the National League and as far as I’m concerned, he’s having the best season out of any second baseman in baseball not named Jose Altuve. He should start and I will continue to stuff the ballot with his name.

And now for the grand finale, here’s how I voted in my most recent All Star ballot:

AL

C-Wilson Ramos-Tampa Bay Rays

1B-Mitch Moreland-Boston Red Sox (his WAR does not qualify, but it’s 1.7, which would be tops in the AL if he had enough plate appearances)

2B-Jose Altuve-Houston Astros

3B-Jose Ramirez-Cleveland Indians

SS-Manny Machado-Baltimore Orioles

OF1-Mike Trout-Anaheim Angels-

OF2-Mookie Betts-Boston Red Sox

OF3-Aaron Judge-New York Yankees

DH-JD Martinez-Boston Red Sox

NL

C-JT Realmuto-Miami Marlins

1B-Freddie Freeman-Atlanta Braves

2B-Scooter Gennett-Cincinnati Reds

3B-Nolan Arenado-Colorado Rockies

SS-Brandon Crawford-San Francisco Giants

OF1-Lorenzo Cain-Milwaukee Brewers

OF2-Odubel Herrera-Philadelphia Phillies

OF3-Nick Markakis-Atlanta Braves

My DH for the NL would probably be Christian Yelich of the Milwaukee Brewers if I had that option for a vote. So as you can see, with my ballot, the only places I disagreed with fans AND WAR were with Wilson Ramos (who is hitting .289), Mitch Moreland (who doesn’t qualify just yet), and Odubel Herrera (who is on FIRE right now and may creep up both leaderboards before all is said and done).

If you want to cast your own vote, you can do so here. Vote up to 35 times, so ballot stuffing is a real thing in this (just don’t do what Royals and Cubs fans have been doing these last couple years and stuffing the ballot boxes with their guys). Let me know what your All Star ballot is looking like in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

The Most Unbreakable Records in Sports

So I read an article on MLB.com, which you can read here, about 17 of the most unbreakable records in baseball, which believe me, there’s a lot more than 17. This was written in response to yesterday being the 80th anniversary of Johnny Vander Meer’s second consecutive no hitter. But I thought I’d take it a step further and talk about all of sports. I won’t touch on any of the ones they mentioned in the article because the fact I’m stealing their idea for an article doesn’t mean I should steal their content too (even though this article has definitely been written before, but whatever, I’m trying to be a good person). I’m going to do MLB, NFL, and NBA because again, those are the only sports I know anything about.

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MLB-Cy Young’s 511 Career Wins

How this one wasn’t on the MLB.com article is beyond me because this is probably the most untouchable record in sports. People are pretty much in agreement that nobody will ever win 300 games again. Cy Young won 511. Now the Wins stat for pitchers has certainly taken a deep dive in importance, especially considering all the factors that go into achieving one. I mean, Hell, look at Jacob deGrom right now. He has a 1.55 ERA and has won just 4 games this year. But regardless, the Wins stat was the most regarded stat for a long time in baseball before bullpens and pitch counts became so important and is a big reason why the award for pitching excellence bears Young’s name. Here are a few interesting tidbits about how Young reached 511 wins:

-He won at least 30 games in a season 4 times (the average starter that spends the entire season in the Majors and off the DL typically starts about 32-33 games)

-He factored into 50 decisions in 1893 and factored in at least 30 decisions in all but 3 seasons: his rookie year and final 2 seasons

-He pitched over 400 innings in a season 5 times

-Aside from his rookie year, he didn’t throw under 200 innings in a season until he was 43

Amazingly, though, Young is not a member of the 3000 strikeout club despite how many innings he threw. In fact, he only struck out 200 batters in a season twice in his 22-year career. His K/9 was 1.5(!!!). People wonder what’s wrong with Cardinals rookie reliever Jordan Hicks for his K/9 being in the 5’s when he can touch 105 mph on his sinker. The worst in the Majors last season was Giants starter Ty Blach at 4.01. Now granted, the average MLB team only struck out about 2-4 times during this time period vs about 8 times today, but that would still put Young below average for his era.

MLB-Sam Crawford’s 309 Career Triples

Triples were so much easier to hit when Crawford was raising Hell as a Detroit Tiger and Cincinnati Red from 1899-1917. The ballparks were much bigger and home runs were considered to be bad strategy. Crawford averaged roughly 20 triples per season over his 18 MLB seasons. The last time anyone hit 20 triples in a season was Curtis Granderson and Jimmy Rollins in 2007 (both guys actually hit 20 doubles, 20 triples, and 20 home runs in that season). That was a typical season for Crawford. Among the career triples leaderboard, the highest-ranked active player is Jose Reyes with 128 career triples and he’s tied for 84th all time and 181 behind Crawford. Nobody is touching 309.

NFL-Jerry Rice’s 22,895 career receiving yards and 197 receiving touchdowns

Despite the rise of the passing game in the NFL, these numbers aren’t getting eclipsed. Back when Rice played, the passing game was always on the backburner to the ground game and teams weren’t as concerned with stopping it as they are today. If a receiver was putting up Rice’s numbers today, they’d be getting double-teamed like crazy and would open up more opportunities for other receivers. Rice played 20 seasons in the NFL, which doesn’t happen very often for kickers anymore, let alone receivers. The next closest receiver in career receiving yards is Terrell Owens at 15,934 yards (though Larry Fitzgerald is RIGHT behind him at 15,545) and the next closest in receiving touchdowns is Randy Moss with 156. The fact that we’re in this era of receiving and still nobody is close just proves that nobody is touching Rice.

NFL-Paul Krause’s 81 career interceptions (also, Dick “Night Train” Lane’s 14 interceptions in a season in 1952)

There were a few guys who were approaching this lately, like Rod Woodson finished with 71 picks and Ed Reed reached 64, but nobody is ever going to eclipse Krause’s 81 career interceptions and nobody is ever going to even sniff Lane’s 14 for a season. My main reason behind this is simple: when a guy is starting to rack up a lot of picks, quarterbacks start to avoid them. There hasn’t been a guy with 10 interceptions in a season since Antonio Cromartie in 2007 so despite the rise in passing numbers, I don’t foresee anybody sniffing Krause or Lane’s numbers just because NFL teams wizen up to known ballhawks now.

NBA-Pretty much any record Wilt Chamberlain still has

100 points in a game, 23,924 career rebounds, 50.1 points per game in a season, those are the three big ones that aren’t getting sniffed. Chamberlain accomplished a lot of these while there was no 3-second rule so he could just hang out in the paint all game. He was also just much bigger than everybody else and could just bully opposing players into getting his shot or grabbing the board. Nowadays, you risk a loss of possession and potential free throws for the other team. Kobe Bryant dropped 81 points in 2006 and he was still almost 20 points behind Wilt, which would be a solid game for most players. Dwight Howard is the active leader in career rebounds and he’s still about 8,000 behind Wilt, and nobody has gotten more than 40 PPG for a season this millennium. Wilt’s numbers are safe.

Sports-Bill Russell’s 11 Championships as a Player

And he did it in 13 career seasons. The next closest is Yogi Berra’s 10 with the Yankees and we’re not seeing any dynasties like we saw in the 1950’s and 1960’s when these guys played. For one, both feats were accomplished when their leagues were about half the size that they are now. Plus free agency and salary caps are a thing now and it’s hard to maintain a team that is dominant for such a long stretch of time because pieces are constantly changing. The most titles of a player in any sport in the last 30 years is Michael Jordan’s 6. Russell almost doubled that and he played 2 fewer seasons. In a season that Bill Russell played in, there was an 85% chance he was winning the title. I bitch about the lack of parity in today’s NBA but it was NOTHING compared to the 1960’s when the Celtics won 8 titles in a row. But I probably wouldn’t have bitched about that since I’m a Celtics fan myself. Yeah I’m that type of fan, sue me.

So that’s just a look at just a few records that I don’t think have any chance of falling anytime soon, or ever, for that matter. The way the game has evolved has rendered these marks as untouchable. Let me know if there are other records you can think of that will never be eclipsed in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

 

30 Clubs in 30 Days: San Francisco Giants

I’m going to skip the intro to this one mainly because I’m writing this before I spend the entire day on the plane so if any big news happens in the sporting world, whether it be March Madness or NFL free agency or something else, I implore you to look elsewhere because I will be unable to provide you with any of those services. However I can preview baseball teams, which is what I’ll be doing today with this edition of 30 Clubs in 30 Days featuring the San Francisco Giants.

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2017 Results:

Record: 64-98, 40 games behind Los Angeles Dodgers, 23 games behind Colorado Rockies for 2nd Wild Card spot

Notable Offseason Additions: 3B Evan Longoria, RF Andrew McCutchen, RP Tony Watson, 2B Josh Rutledge, CF Austin Jackson, SP Derek Holland

Notable Offseason Subtractions: SP Matt Cain (retired), LF Michael Morse, CF Denard Span, 3B Christian Arroyo, SP Matt Moore, RP Kyle Crick

Best Offensive Player: C Buster Posey

Best Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner

Depth Chart:

C-Buster Posey, Nick Hundley

1B-Brandon Belt

2B-Joe Panik, Kelby Tomlinson

3B-Evan Longoria, Pablo Sandoval

SS-Brandon Crawford

LF-Hunter Pence, Jarrett Parker

CF-Austin Jackson, Gorkys Hernandez

RF-Andrew McCutchen, Mac Williamson

SP-Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Ty Blach, Chris Stratton

Bullpen-Mark Melancon (CP), Sam Dyson, Hunter Strickland, Will Smith, Tony Watson, Cory Gearrin, Josh Osich

Coaching Staff:

Manager-Bruce Bochy (12th season with Giants)

Hitting Coach-Alonzo Powell

Pitching Coach-Curt Young

1st Base Coach-Jose Alguacil

3rd Base Coach-Ron Wotus

Bench Coach-Hensley Meulens

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I don’t know what the Hell happened to the Giants last season but they are way too good a team to go 64-98 and tie for the worst record in all of baseball (the Tigers will hold the #1 overall pick in the draft thanks to a tie breaker after Pablo Sandoval hit a walkoff home run on the season’s final day). Injuries did play a factor but there was also a ton of ineffectiveness from Bruce Bochy’s squad. However they made several moves that should have Giants fans excited for the coming season. Here’s how they’re projected to line up in 2018.

1. Andrew McCutchen-RF

2. Joe Panik-2B

3. Buster Posey-C

4. Brandon Belt-1B

5. Evan Longoria-3B

6. Brandon Crawford-SS

7. Hunter Pence-LF

8. Austin Jackson-CF

9. Pitcher’s Spot

That’s a pretty solid lineup. Buster Posey is the highlight, of course. The 2010 NL Rookie of the Year and 2012 NL MVP was the lone bright spot for the Giants last season. In 140 games, Posey hit .320 with 12 home runs and 67 RBI while playing above average defense behind the plate and being worth 4.3 WAR. However his efforts were wasted because other guys had down years. Brandon Belt’s 2017 was particularly poor as he only hit .241 with 18 homers and 51 RBI and was second on the team with a 2.3 WAR. I expect a bounceback year from him, though, as he dealt with injuries that limited him to 104 games last season. The Giants scored the second fewest runs in the Majors in 2017 and their shortstop Brandon Crawford was the team leader in RBIs at 77, which is not what you want to see, especially considering Crawford is better known for his defensive prowess than as a hitter. In fact, despite his typically stellar defense, Crawford was a league-average player with 2.0 WAR in 2017, as he only slashed .253/.305/.403 with 14 home runs in 144 games played. AT&T Park is up there with Kauffman Stadium as one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the game so it’s going to hurt the overall numbers, but still, this lineup is too talented to repeat their 2017 performance, especially after the additions of Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen, both of whom quietly had very strong seasons. Last season Longoria hit .261 with 20 home runs and 86 RBI while winning the AL Gold Glove for third basemen. McCutchen was also very good despite the fact that he’s far removed from the player who won the 2013 NL MVP. In 2017, McCutchen hit .279 with 28 homers and 88 RBI while being worth 3.7 WAR in what was probably his best season since he cut his dreadlocks. He was coming off an abysmal 2016 and a poor performance in the World Baseball Classic so to see him come together was encouraging. Where he actually slots in the lineup will be interesting to see because the Giants lack a true leadoff hitter and I think McCutchen or Joe Panik could be capable of taking over that role.

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Giants pitching fell on some hard times in 2017. Madison Bumgarner missed half the season due to injury while Jeff Samardzija had some of the worst luck on the mound and Johnny Cueto had an unusually below-average season. Matt Moore had the worst ERA in baseball and was shipped to Texas while Ty Blach had the worst K/9 rate in the Majors at 4.01. A healthy Bumgarner is a Cy Young candidate and can be downright untouchable, as we see every time the Giants are in the postseason, particularly the 2014 World Series. In 2016, his last healthy season, Bumgarner went 15-9 with a 2.74 ERA and nearly struck out 10 batters per 9 innings. Cueto started the All Star Game for the NL in 2016 but was strangely ineffective in 2017 as he had an ERA of 4.52 that wasn’t affected by his defense, as he had a 4.49 FIP. Samardzija had a below average ERA of 4.42 however he had a very respectable FIP of 3.61, which could suggest that he’s in for an uptick in production in 2018. On paper this is a very talented pitching rotation that really didn’t perform up to its capabilities in 2017 but I anticipate them being very solid in 2018.

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The Giants bullpen was decent in 2017, however closer Mark Melancon had a year he’d like to forget. He had an ERA of 4.50 while saving 11 out of 16 opportunities. He dealt with injury in 2017 and he will look to return to the form that made him an All Star with the Pirates. Sam Dyson had an ABYSMAL start to the 2017 season with the Rangers as he carried an ERA over 10 for much of the season before being shipped to the Giants. He still struggled by the bay but at least this performance was respectable, as he carried a 4.03 ERA in 38 appearances with the Giants. He’s been a successful closer in the past and the Giants are going to need him to return to some semblance of that form if they hope to have a solid option for the 8th inning. Hunter Strickland throws really hard but he holds grudges, as you may have seen when he pegged Bryce Harper for an incident that happened 3 years prior. However he was arguably the Giants’ best reliever last season as he posted an ERA of 2.64. Cory Gearrin had a strong season as well, posting a 1.99 ERA however that was helped immensely by the defense behind him as his FIP was near 4, so there may be some regression. There’s talent in this Giants ‘pen but they’ve got some work to do.

Overall, I think the Giants’ 2017 season was a fluke and I think their trend of bad odd-numbered years and good even-numbered years will continue this season. I’m not sure if it will be enough for them to make the postseason, as the NL West looks to be very challenging in 2018, but they will certainly be in the hunt for the Wild Card if not the division title at the very least.

Projected Record: 85-77, 3rd in NL West

That’s going to do it for this edition of 30 Clubs in 30 Days. Join me tomorrow when I preview the Seattle Mariners, who always seem to be threatening to be really good but never quite reach that potential. Let me know what you think of the Giants’ chances in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

30 Clubs in 30 Days: Philadelphia Phillies

There’s a video circulating of ODell Beckham Jr in a hotel room with a woman smoking what looks like a blunt and what appears to be cocaine present in the room. The blunt I don’t really care about, it’s pretty well known that a large majority of NFL players smoke weed and even the NFL is like “you can’t smoke weed, wink wink,” but the blow is a different issue. Beckham doesn’t snort the substance in the video so maybe they just emptied the sugar out of a bag of sour patch kids. Can’t really know for sure unless you stick a little bit on your tongue or snort it so let’s give Beckham the benefit of the doubt before condemning him. Also I know Selection Sunday was yesterday, but I’m writing this in the airport before my flight at 11 AM just in case things get out of control tonight, so I won’t be sharing my March Madness bracket until tomorrow. We’ve got a couple days between Selection Sunday and the play-in games so I’m not too worried. With that, let’s get to day 21 of 30 Clubs in 30 Days with the Philadelphia Phillies.

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2017 Results:

Record: 66-96, 31 games behind Washington Nationals, 21 games behind Colorado Rockies for 2nd Wild Card Spot

Notable Offseason Additions: SP Jake Arrieta, 1B Carlos Santana, RP Pat Neshek, RP Fernando Abad, RP Tommy Hunter, IF Adam Rosales

Notable Offseason Subtractions: OF Daniel Nava, OF Hyun Soo Kim, SP Clay Buchholz

Best Offensive Player: 1B Carlos Santana

Best Pitcher: Jake Arrieta

Depth Chart:

C-Jorge Alfaro, Cameron Rupp

1B-Carlos Santana, Tommy Joseph

2B-Cesar Hernandez

3B-Maikel Franco

SS-JP Crawford, Adam Rosales

LF-Rhys Hoskins

CF-Odubel Herrera, Roman Quinn

RF-Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr

SP-Jake Arrieta, Aaron Nola, Jared Eickhoff, Vincent Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, Ben Lively, Zach Eflin

Bullpen-Hector Neris (CP), Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter, Luis Garcia, Adam Morgan, Edubray Ramos, Fernando Abad

Coaching Staff:

Manager-Gabe Kapler (1st season with Phillies)

Hitting Coach-John Mallee

Pitching Coach-Rick Kranitz

1st Base Coach-Jose Flores

3rd Base Coach-Dusty Wathan

Bench Coach-Rob Thomson

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I was pretty disappointed in the Phillies last season. I thought last year was the year their young guys would start to put it together and show some progress in this rebuild. But they didn’t, really. The team continued to suck and finished with a record of 66-96, second worst in the NL. They continue to pay for not drafting me in the 2014 MLB Draft. They sent a scout to my high school and he witnessed with his own two eyes me line a single down the left field line to start a 9th inning rally. Who cares if I had a weak throwing arm, no speed, little power, and started 2 games all season (and yes, I did check to make sure they didn’t actually draft me)? That one hit should’ve been all the proof they needed. Instead they drafted Aaron Nola, but I’ll get to him later. They hired Gabe Kapler to be their new manager, as I recommended they should, so hopefully the young guys develop the way they should. Here’s a look at what he’s got to work with heading into this season.

1. Odubel Herrera-CF

2. Cesar Hernandez-2B

3. Carlos Santana-1B

4. Rhys Hoskins-LF

5. Maikel Franco-3B

6. Nick Williams/Aaron Altherr-RF

7. JP Crawford-SS

8. Jorge Alfaro-C

9. Pitcher’s Spot

There’s some young talent here. JP Crawford is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and he got a brief taste of the Majors last season. He only hit .214 in 23 games but he walked a TON, as he reached ball 4 on 18.4% of his plate appearances (which would’ve ranked 4th in the Majors behind Joey Votto, Aaron Judge, and Mike Trout), resulting in a .356 OBP despite the low average. Maikel Franco is a guy I’ve been frustrated with because he’s one of the most talented third basemen in the game but he has done nothing so far in the Majors. Reportedly the newly-signed Carlos Santana is taking him under his wing, though, so if he can learn from Santana’s approach, then we could see a significant uptick in production. Santana is notorious for his plate discipline, as he’s traditionally one of the best at drawing walks year-in and year-out while also displaying 30-home run power. But of course, the biggest story for the Phillies offensively last season was Rhys Hoskins. Despite only playing 50 games last season, Hoskins launched 18 home runs, slugged .618, and was worth 2.2 WAR. That’s outstanding for such a short period of time. He’s going to do a lot of damage for the Phillies this season and he’ll likely be doing it with runners frequently on base ahead of him, as Santana draws a lot of walks and Odubel Herrera has never hit below .280 in his 3-year career. So provided this talented group of youngsters grows under Kapler the way I thought they would last season under Pete Mackanin, this could be a sneaky good offense.

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Pitching was pretty inconsistent for the Phillies last season, as they posted a 4.60 team ERA. There’s a lot of untapped potential in this staff. Aaron Nola looks like a budding star at the top of their rotation. Last year he went 12-11 with a 3.54 ERA and struck out nearly 10 batters per 9 innings. He’s already been named the Opening Day starter against the Atlanta Braves, a huge honor for the 24 year-old. After him there’s some talented guys but with mixed results. Jared Eickhoff showed flashes of brilliance at times for the Phillies but his final numbers were pretty underwhelming, posting a 4.71 ERA and striking out a little over 8 batters per 9. Vince Velasquez is another guy who has flashed a ton of ability, particularly in a 2016 start against the Padres when he threw a shutout while striking out 16 batters on just 3 hits. However he also hasn’t built on that amazing outing, as he finished with an ERA over 5 in 2017. Kapler has a reputation for developing players in the Dodgers’ organization so hopefully for these guys’ sakes he’s able to work his magic with them, too. This is also a late edit, but I had already had this blog set up so forgive me if it reads weird, but Jake Arrieta just agreed to a 3-year $75M deal with the Phillies. It likely doesn’t change Nola’s status as team ace, but it is certainly a MAJOR upgrade on the mound. The 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner didn’t have his best year in 2017, but he’s still a stud on the mound. It’ll be interesting to see how soon he’s able to suit up for the Phillies.

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There’s a lot to be desired in the Phillies bullpen. Hector Neris is set to be their closer and he was pretty good last season, saving 26 games with a 3.01 ERA and 10.37 K/9. He’s got some electric stuff and I think he could be a potential breakout candidate. The star for the Phillies’ pen was 36 year-old Pat Neshek. Before being traded at the Deadline to the Rockies, Neshek was the Phillies’ lone All Star last season, posting a 1.12 ERA while striking out over 10 batters per 9, a very high number for a submarine pitcher at his age. Neshek returned to the Phillies in free agency in the offseason and he will likely be the 8th inning guy and possibly the closer when Neris can’t go. After those guys there’s a lot of uncertainty. New additions Fernando Abad and Tommy Hunter have had success in the past but have also had plenty of rough patches and might not be the most reliable guys for the Phillies. This bullpen may struggle in 2018.

Overall, I think there’s talent on the Phillies and like the A’s in yesterday’s blog, it’s all going to come down to how their young guys develop. If Kapler can awaken the talent in these guys like he did for guys like Chris Taylor and Justin Turner with the Dodgers, then the Phillies’ rebuild could be ending very soon. I think the Phillies are going to be my pick for most-improved team in 2018.

Projected Record: 75-85, 3rd in NL East

That’s going to do it for this edition of 30 Clubs in 30 Days. Join me tomorrow when I discuss the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are on the brink of a rebuild after trading stars Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole. Let me know what you think of the Phillies’ chances in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.