30 Clubs in 30 Days: San Diego Padres

I’m baaaaaaaaaaaaack. Well, as of writing this, I’m not back from Spring Break just yet, however I’m in a hotel with competent wifi now so I can make another go at 30 Clubs in 30 Days. I won’t be back at school until Sunday night. But in my absence, a LOT in sports has happened. Here are some things that I missed that I REALLY wanted to blog about but didn’t have the opportunity to because of conditions out of my control:

-#16 seeded UMBC upset #1 Virginia in the first ever instance of a 16 beating a 1 in the history of March Madness (1 seeds had been 135-0)

-Kirk Cousins signed with the Vikings, Sam Bradford signed with the Cardinals, Case Keenum signed with the Broncos, and Teddy Bridgewater signed with the Jets

-Bills traded the 21st pick and tackle Cordy Glenn to the Bengals for the 12th pick

-Jets acquire the 3rd pick from the Colts in exchange for the 6th pick and 3 2nd rounders, including 2 in 2018 (OUTSTANDING trade by the Colts, considering that, given the teams picking ahead of them, the move won’t cost them NC State edge rusher Bradley Chubb)

-Allen Robinson signs with the Bears, Sammy Watkins signs with the Chiefs, Jordy Nelson signs with the Raiders, and Michael Crabtree signs with the Ravens

-Richard Sherman signs with the 49ers, Sheldon Richardson signs with the Vikings, Muhammad Wilkerson and Jimmy Graham sign with the Packers

I could go on but the Padres have been patiently waiting for me to tell them how good or bad they’ll be this season for much too long so without further ado, let’s get into this edition of 30 Clubs in 30 Days featuring the San Diego Padres.

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2017 Results:

Record: 71-91, 33 games behind Los Angeles Dodgers, 16 games behind Colorado Rockies for 2nd Wild Card Spot

Notable Offseason Additions: 1B Eric Hosmer, SS Freddy Galvis, 3B Chase Headley, C AJ Ellis, SP Tyson Ross, SP Chris Young, SP Bryan Mitchell

Notable Offseason Subtractions: SS Erick Aybar, RP Kevin Quackenbush, RP Travis Wood, C/RP Christian Bethancourt, 3B Yangervis Solarte, SP Jhoulys Chacin

Best Offensive Player: 1B Eric Hosmer

Best Pitcher: CP Brad Hand

Depth Chart:

C-Austin Hedges, AJ Ellis

1B-Eric Hosmer

2B-Carlos Asuaje, Cory Spangenberg

3B-Chase Headley

SS-Freddy Galvis, Allen Cordoba

LF-Jose Pirela, Hunter Renfroe

CF-Manuel Margot

RF-Wil Myers, Matt Szczur

SP-Clayton Richard, Bryan Mitchell, Dinelson Lamet, Luis Perdomo, Colin Rea, Robbie Erlin, Tyson Ross, Chris Young

Bullpen-Brad Hand (CP), Carter Capps, Kirby Yates, Craig Stammen, Jordan Lyles, Kazuhisa Makita, Phil Maton

Coaching Staff:

Manager-Andy Green (3rd season with Padres)

Hitting Coach-Matt Stairs

Pitching Coach-Darren Balsley

1st Base Coach-Skip Schumaker

3rd Base Coach-Glenn Hoffman

Bench Coach-Mark McGwire

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The Padres had arguably baseball’s thinnest roster in 2017 yet still managed to avoid the basement in the NL West. They had 3 guys on their 25-man roster that were Rule 5 picks, which essentially means they weren’t good enough to be on their previous team’s 40-man roster. But they made some moves in the offseason to try and shore things up. Here’s how they’re projected to line up in 2018.

1. Manuel Margot-CF

2. Freddy Galvis-SS

3. Eric Hosmer-1B

4. Wil Myers-RF

5. Chase Headley-3B

6. Carlos Asuaje/Cory Spangenberg-2B

7. Jose Pirela/Hunter Renfroe-LF

8. Austin Hedges-C

9. Pitcher’s Spot

Eric Hosmer, of course, is the big signing here. The hero of the 2015 World Series, he signed an 8-year $144M deal. I did say that Hosmer was the luckiest hitter in baseball last season, however that doesn’t mean he can’t hit. Far from it. Last season Hosmer hit .318 with 25 home runs and 94 RBI while being worth 4.1 WAR. He’s also just now entering the prime of his career at 28 years old and will be switching to a more hitter-friendly ballpark. Petco Park still tends to favor pitchers even after they moved the fences in a few years ago, but Hosmer’s old stadium, Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, is about as pitcher-friendly as stadiums get so one can expect an uptick in Hosmer’s offensive production in 2018. Wil Myers is the only holdover from last year’s team of note, though. He started at DH for the National League in the 2016 All Star Game but had a down year in terms of his rate stats in 2017. Last year he slashed .243/.328/.464, which is underwhelming, however he did manage to hit a career high 30 home runs while also stealing 20 bags. He’ll be moving from first base back to the outfield with the arrival of Hosmer and will likely be the thumper in this lineup. After those two, though, there isn’t much to go off of. Chase Headley isn’t nearly the player he was the last time he wore a Padres uniform after a disappointing tenure with the Yankees and Manuel Margot is more or less just a speed threat at this stage of his career. Austin Hedges, whom the Padres were very excited about when he was coming up, so far has only shown that he’s an excellent defender behind the plate and hasn’t given any reason to be excited about his bat. This lineup is definitely better than last year’s, though that’s not saying much considering the Padres scored the fewest runs in baseball in 2017.

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The pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired. Clayton Richard is currently their ace and that’s a very bad sign considering he had an ERA of 4.79 last season. He’s a #4 starter at best and he has never cracked 7 K/9 in his Major League career. Dinelson Lamet is a guy that has shown a ton of talent but hasn’t quite put it all together yet. Lamet had an excellent 10.94 K/9 in 21 starts last season, which would’ve ranked 6th in the Majors had he pitched enough innings to qualify (he would’ve trailed only Chris Sale, Robbie Ray, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, and Chris Archer). He’s got the stuff to make guys miss, however he’s had trouble with his command and when guys do make contact, the ball tends to go a long way. He had a 4.57 ERA last season while walking over 4 batters per 9 and giving up 1.4 HR/9. There is some talent with this kid, it’s just a matter of whether he can learn to pitch rather than just throw. After that, though, there really isn’t much of note in the Padres’ rotation.

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San Diego’s bullpen has a couple of interesting arms. Brad Hand was mainly just a quality middle reliever for much of his career until he burst onto the scene in 2017. He was the Padres’ lone representative in that year’s All Star game and finished the year with a 2.16 ERA and saved 21 games while striking out almost a dozen batters per 9 innings. He’ll open the season as the team’s closer. Carter Capps is a guy that really intrigues me. He used to have the funkiest windup in the world, where he would basically crow hop from the mound towards the plate and it really helped him dominate in 2015 with the Marlins, where he posted a 1.16 ERA and struck out almost 17 batters per 9. However, he missed all of 2016 due to injury and by that time his funky delivery had been banned by Major League Baseball. His return from injury and a normal windup really hurt him upon his return in 2017. He only pitched 12.1 innings and posted an ERA well over 6 and a K/9 rate of 5.11, nearly a third of what he had posted the last time he pitched. If he can somehow recreate that magic he had in 2015, the back end of the Padres’ bullpen could quietly become one of the most lethal in all of baseball.

Overall, I don’t like the Padres’ chances in 2018. It’s already hard enough that they have to try and follow up a season where they went 71-91 despite having just Wil Myers, but they’re also in a division with 3 playoff teams from last year and a fourth team (the Giants) who had a fluky 2017. It’ll be damn near impossible for the Padres to not find themselves in the cellar in 2018 given their overall lack of Major League talent and the tough division they’ll be playing in. They can look forward to their prospects arriving, though, as they feature the likes of Mackenzie Gore, Luis Urias, Cal Quantrill, Michel Baez, Adrian Morejon, and in a couple years Anderson Espinoza. So the future is bright for the Padres, they just have to suffer through the present.

Projected Record: 70-92, Last in NL West

That’s going to do it for this edition of 30 Clubs in 30 Days. Thanks for the wait on this one, it sucked not being able to write these for a few days, though I survived (the alcohol helped). Join me tomorrow when I discuss the San Francisco Giants, who look to bounce back and continue their trend of success in even-numbered years. Let me know what you think of the Padres’ chances in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

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