College Football Picks: Rivalry Week

Last Week: 10-2                  Season Record: 79-29

My misses last week were Texas against West Virginia and Kansas State against Oklahoma State, though my upset pick of Wake Forest over NC State came through (even though Wake was favored by 1.5, I still consider it an upset because the Wolfpack were ranked). Miami (FL) losing to Pitt is HUGE and I’m going to have an interesting playoff blog for Tuesday. So for the last time in the regular season, let’s get picking.

Indiana vs Purdue (-2.5)

As an Indiana student, I’m a little nervous for this one. Purdue isn’t the pushover of years’ past and even when they did suck, they still played the Hoosiers tough. For that reason, I’m not surprised the Boilermakers are favored at home. Both teams are 5-6 so the winner of this game goes bowling and the loser’s season is over. Naturally I’m going to be pretty anxious. I am going to go with Indiana, the Hoosiers have won 4 in a row in this matchup and Purdue will be without gunslinging quarterback David Blough. If Blough were playing, I’d likely give the edge to Purdue, but I think the Boilermakers will struggle to score on this tough Indiana defense.

Projected Score: Indiana 24 Purdue 20

#7 Georgia (-10.5) vs Georgia Tech

Georgia still controls their own destiny if they want to make it to the playoff for the first time in school history. They have to beat Georgia Tech and the winner of the Iron Bowl. I think for that reason, head coach Kirby Smart is going to have his guys ready and it wouldn’t shock me if the Bulldogs come out guns blazing for this game against the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech is always a tricky team to play against, given their wishbone offense and their highly-ranked defense this season, but they’ve lost 3 of their last 4 games and need this win if they are to become bowl eligible. To me, that type of cold play does not bode well if you’re trying to beat a potentially playoff-bound team. I’ve got the Bulldogs winning this pretty handily.

Projected Score: Georgia 38 Georgia Tech 17

Louisville (-10.5) vs Kentucky

Things haven’t gone the way Louisville would’ve liked, while Kentucky has exceeded all expectations this season. Last year, the Cardinals were 26.5-point favorites, yet still lost to the Wildcats despite Lamar Jackson being in the midst of his Heisman trophy-winning campaign. I think this game will be close, Mark Stoops’ bunch have been tough beats this season and both teams enter the game at 7-4. The one thing about Kentucky is that they seem to let bad teams stay close, as they’ve had tight contests with the likes of Southern Miss and Eastern Kentucky. But I don’t know. I’ve got a feeling about this one. I think the Kentucky Wildcats will make it two in a row for no reason. Because that’s rivalry week.

NCAA Football: New Mexico State at Kentucky

Can Stephen Johnson lead Kentucky to back-to-back upset wins over Louisville? (photo credit: Gridiron Now)

Projected Score: Kentucky 38 Louisville 35

#9 Ohio State (-12) vs Michigan

Ohio State has already won the Big Ten East and the only time they’ve lost to Michigan since 2003 was in 2011 after Jim Tressel was fired over that whole tattoos thing and Luke Fickell was interim head coach. And even then the Wolverines only won by 6. So being a Michigan fan hasn’t been fun for a while. The game is in Ann Arbor this year but I don’t expect that to matter a whole lot. Last time this game was at Michigan, Ohio State won 42-13. To the chagrin of Michigan fans, I don’t expect a whole lot to change. Michigan lacks consistency on offense and JT Barrett is playing too well right now for Michigan’s all-world defense to hold him down for too long.

Projected Score: Ohio State 29 Michigan 16

#1 Alabama (-4.5) vs #6 Auburn

This is probably the matchup of the day right here. Amazingly enough, Alabama misses the SEC championship game and possibly the playoff if they lose this game to Auburn. Interesting tidbit, the winner of this game in every year since 2008 was ranked in the top 4 at the time of their victory. This is probably the biggest rivalry in college football right now as both teams are fantastic and this year in particular, the stakes are very high. Auburn could get into the college football playoff if they win this game and the SEC title. I laid out their path earlier this week, which you can read here. I really am torn about who I have winning this. My brain is telling me Alabama, but my heart is telling me Auburn. Both are wrong just as often as the other, so I’m going to trust the number 1 ranking and go the route that would cause the least amount of chaos and pick Alabama here. But Auburn winning would be pandemonium for the CFP.

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The Crimson Tide will have their hands full with Auburn in the Iron Bowl (photo credit: Roll ‘Bama Roll)

Projected Score: Alabama 31 Auburn 30

#5 Wisconsin (-17.5) vs Minnesota

Every game is about as must-win as they come if Wisconsin wants to stay alive in the playoff hunt. One slip-up and its over, given how easy their schedule is. Minnesota has been pretty inconsistent this season. There are some weeks where they look like they can compete with the Badgers in the Big Ten West, then there are others where they look like the worst team in the conference. Wisconsin’s defense has a tendency to make good teams look painfully average and the Golden Gophers don’t have the weapons to overcome that dominance. I’ve got the Badgers entering their Big Ten title date with Ohio State at 12-0.

Projected Score: Wisconsin 35 Minnesota 17

West Virginia vs #4 Oklahoma (-22.5)

Baker Mayfield is on fire right now, but because the camera caught him yelling obscenities while grabbing his nuts at the Kansas bench last week, he will be suspended for an unknown amount of time in this game, but he will play. I wonder if he gets suspended had the camera not caught him. Quite frankly, I love the intensity, but since you can’t exactly fine the kid because he has no money, you kind of have to keep him out for a few plays. Even without Mayfield for a small portion of this game, Oklahoma is still heavily favored, and that’s pretty well justified. Will Grier being injured is going to be fatal for the Mountaineers’ chances of pulling off the upset. Were he healthy, I’d give them a much better shot at winning. But without him, this line seems a little low.

Projected Score: Oklahoma 49 West Virginia 21

Arizona (-2.5) vs Arizona State

This game could get really exciting. Arizona’s Khalil Tate might be leading the Heisman race had it not taken him until October to earn the starting job. He’s been a MONSTER this season, especially on the ground. He was on the bench for the first month and he still has 1325 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Did I mention he’s the quarterback? Arizona State isn’t going to stop him, so they’re going to just have to try and outscore him, something they’re very capable of. The Sun Devils have scored at least 30 points in each of their last 3 games this season and they’re going to need more of the same if they want to keep pace with Tate and the Wildcats. I’m going with Arizona to win this game. Tate is too explosive for the Sun Devils to keep up with.

Projected Score: Arizona 45 Arizona State 38

#3 Clemson (-13.5) vs #24 South Carolina

Miami losing really doesn’t affect the ACC picture, only now it’s pretty much a guarantee we won’t get two ACC teams in the playoff, just so long as Clemson wins this game. The Gamecocks are no slouches. They’re 8-3 this season, including a win over NC State and they’ve played good teams like Georgia and Texas A&M close. I think the Tigers will be okay for this one, though. They’re just too talented for South Carolina to keep up with for 60 minutes, but I wouldn’t put it past South Carolina to make this game interesting. They’re a very balanced team that could create some issues.

DeonCain_2016_2

Deon Cain is one of the most explosive receivers in the nation (photo credit: Athlon Sports)

Projected Score: Clemson 34 South Carolina 24

Texas A&M vs #18 LSU (-9.5)

I wouldn’t necessarily call this a big rivalry game, but it’s a matchup that will be worth watching as these are two quality teams that can hang with the best of them. Hell, these are probably the two teams that gave Alabama their best fights of the season (along with Mississippi State). Kevin Sumlin might be coaching for his job at this point as the expectations at A&M have been pretty high the last few seasons and a loss here would drop the Aggies to a 7-5 finish and a mediocre bowl game. Amazing how different 7-5 and 8-4 really look. I’m going to give the edge to LSU. Texas A&M is too inconsistent at quarterback and LSU’s defense feeds on those types of teams.

Projected Score: LSU 24 Texas A&M 14

#8 Notre Dame (-2.5) vs #21 Stanford

Notre Dame has some slim odds if they want to make the playoff, which I detailed in the link in my Iron Bowl pick. But they still have a chance and they have to beat Stanford to stay alive. This is pretty much guaranteed to be a close game, as this matchup has been decided by 1 score every year starting in 2012. Stanford has won 3 of those 5 games. The key to this game for Notre Dame is going to be stopping Bryce Love. Yes that’s pretty damn obvious, but Stanford is so unsettled at quarterback that the passing game can never seem to get in a consistent rhythm. Honestly, if they hold Love to 120 yards of total offense, they should be fine. I’m taking Notre Dame to win this game. Defensively I trust them to find ways to limit Love.

Projected Score: Notre Dame 28 Stanford 21

#13 Washington State vs #17 Washington (-10.5)

The winner of this game likely faces USC for the Pac-12 title, adding a little more incentive to an already intense rivalry. Both teams have had their ups and downs this season and have spent time in the Top 10. Both offenses have the ability to light up the scoreboard, but that could be limited because it is expected to rain in this game. For that reason, I’m going to give the edge to the Washington Huskies. A weapon like Myles Gaskin in the run game will be huge against the elements and I think he’s going to be in for a heck of a game.

Projected Score: Washington 30 Washington State 27

Those are the final picks of the regular season, I want to thank everyone for reading these every week. Fret not, I’m not done doing these, but my regular season is over upon the conclusion of these games. I will still be doing conference championship games, Army-Navy, and bowl games so I’ve still got plenty of material on the way. Are there any other rivalry games you want my thoughts on? Let me know in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.

 

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