Last Week: 8-4 Season Record: 35-13
So I took a few more chances last week than usual. I had two big upset picks, Indiana over Michigan and Georgia Tech over Miami (FL). Indiana took Michigan to OT but lost 27-20 and Georgia Tech was about to upset the U until Darrell Langham made a terrific catch on 4th down to keep Miami alive in time to make a game-winning field goal to win 25-24. I came close, but that doesn’t make my record look any better. My other losses were Auburn against LSU and Navy against Memphis, though both games were 1 score games. So I came THIS close to being 12-0 last week. My point is my picks for college football are really good and you should definitely listen to what I say. So with that, let’s get picking. Spoilers ahead.
#10 Oklahoma State (-7) vs Texas
The Cowboys have been really solid this season, especially on offense where Mason Rudolph and James Washington have been unstoppable. Their one loss was against an unbeaten TCU team in which they put up their lowest scoring output of the season. That would be 31 points. There is a ton of fire power on this offense that goes into Austin to take on the Longhorns who have to be feeling pretty good about themselves after taking Oklahoma to the limit. They’ve played well against good teams this season as they also looked good in a loss to USC. They aren’t quite back just yet but they will make this game with OK State interesting. I have the Cowboys winning.
Projected Score: Oklahoma State 45 Texas 35
Louisville vs Florida State (-6.5)
So looking at this game on the schedule in preseason, I’m sure a lot of fans circled this on their calendar as must-see TV. Here we are in Week 8 and these two teams have NOT had things go well this season. I talked in my Heisman blog, which you can read here, about Louisville’s struggles this season so I won’t talk your ear off about that here, but Florida State has just imploded without Deondre Francois. Derwin James continues to be an animal but the rest of this Seminoles team has just kind of phoned it in this season and the underclassmen are looking towards next year. They’re favored in this game, but I like Louisville’s chances in this one. Lamar Jackson is still killing it this year and while he does struggle with turnovers, I think he puts up enough points where it doesn’t bite the Cardinals too hard.
Projected Score: Louisville 38 Florida State 28
Boston College vs Virginia (-5.5)
Traditionally these two teams are in the cellar of the ACC, but they’re both having some solid seasons. Boston College is coming off a BIG win at Louisville on the strength of AJ Dillon’s 270 yard performance on the ground, as well as this VICIOUS stiff arm.
Virginia is 5-1 on the year, their one loss being to Big Ten opponent Indiana in Week 2. The Cavaliers admittedly have had a pretty easy schedule to start the year, Indiana and Boise State being their best opponents until the end of the year, but they are getting the job done. Defensively they’ve been very solid. The most points they’ve allowed all year is 34 against Indiana and they are consistently between 10 and 21 points allowed each game. Boston College isn’t consistent enough an offense to do to Virginia what they did to Louisville and I think Virginia wins this game and becomes bowl eligible for the first time since 2011.
Projected Score: Virginia 21 Boston College 14
Arizona State vs Utah (-10)
Arizona State has been playing spoiler all season. They competed to the end with Texas Tech and Oregon and beat a good Stanford team and are coming off a huge upset over a top-5 Washington squad. Utah has been a similar type of team this season in that they make good opponents nervous. Their two losses are by a combined 4 points to Stanford and USC. So basically this is a game between two trap game teams. Both have been overall pretty inconsistent and this game is a pretty big toss up. I think Utah wins and that’s mainly on the strength that I trust them a little bit more because they are a play or two away from being 6-0.
Projected Score: Utah 30 Arizona State 24
Indiana vs #18 Michigan State
Indiana is coming off a near upset of the Michigan Wolverines and now they head to East Lansing to face a Michigan State team that actually did manage to beat Michigan in the Big House. The Hoosiers defense was really impressive aside from the fact they couldn’t stop Karan Higdon last week but they face a Michigan State offense that may be without runningback LJ Scott, who was arrested a couple nights ago for driving with a suspended license. It is unknown what his availability will be for this game. But both defenses are really tough and physical and I think this is going to be a dogfight. However I think Michigan State outlasts Indiana at the very end and gets some revenge for their loss last season.
Projected Score: Michigan State: 21 Indiana 17
#9 Oklahoma (-14.5) vs Kansas State
Kansas State is struggling right now. Their one win over a Power 5 team is Baylor and they’re winless right now. They’ve lost two in a row to a solid Texas team and an excellent TCU team. They’re home against Oklahoma, who has looked a little shaky the last couple of weeks. They lost to Iowa State and got taken to the brink against Texas. That one I’m not so sure would’ve been too different regardless of what happened the week prior against Iowa State, when Texas and Oklahoma play you can use any cliche imaginable and it’ll fit. But I think this is where Oklahoma re-enters the CFP discussion, as they put the smackdown to Kansas State.
Projected Score: Oklahoma 49 Kansas State 21
Kentucky vs Mississippi State (-13)
Kentucky is surprisingly 5-1 on the season, their one loss coming against the Florida Gators, but a botched coverage late in the game is what’s keeping them from being 6-0. They’ve had a weak schedule thus far but they played really well in their win against a pretty good South Carolina team, however they have let lesser teams like Eastern Michigan and Southern Miss keep it close, which would have me nervous about their ability to go into Starkville and get a win against Mississippi State. Mississippi State has been the bane of my existence when it comes to picking. I felt like they’d be competitive against Georgia and I thought they would beat Auburn in back to back weeks a few games ago. They got blown to kingdom come by both teams. Yet those came after thrashing a pretty good LSU team. They’re coming off a smacking of BYU and I think Nick Fitzgerald has them keeping up momentum against Kentucky, however Kentucky will beat the spread, as they’ve kept it close against good teams this season.
Projected Score: Mississippi State 27 Kentucky 23
Oregon vs UCLA (-6.5)
I’ve tried to pick Oregon to get big wins for the last couple weeks now and they’ve let me down each time. Royce Freeman is having a big season for the Ducks, with 797 yards on 133 carries with 10 TDs but they’ve been without quarterback Justin Herbert with a broken collarbone and freshman Braxton Burmeister has just simply not been good. He’s completed 52% of his passes with 172 yards with 1 TD and 4 interceptions and that won’t be enough to outscore Josh Rosen’s UCLA Bruins. Rosen has been terrific this season and although UCLA’s record hasn’t been where I’m sure Bruins fans want it to be, you have to feel really good about their chances this week.
Projected Score: UCLA 42 Oregon 17
#24 LSU (-7) vs Ole Miss
I have no idea what to make of this LSU team. They lose to Troy on homecoming then follow that up with back-to-back wins over ranked teams, Florida and a top-10 Auburn team. So really I haven’t the slightest clue of what to expect with Ed Orgeron’s team. Ole Miss got embarrassed about as badly as a team can get embarrassed against Alabama a few weeks ago (66-3) and it took until last week to show some life, beating Vanderbilt 57-35. Ole Miss doesn’t seem to show up when they face big time teams and I think they will struggle against a physical LSU defense. Whether LSU is able to put up big time points is another question entirely. I think LSU wins it but Ole Miss may make them nervous.
Projected Score: LSU 24 Ole Miss 21
#19 Michigan vs #2 Penn State (-9.5)
Michigan barely escaped Indiana last week after losing to Michigan State the week prior, which explains why they dropped from #8 to #19 in two weeks. The defense is EXTREMELY impressive, in fact Indiana was the first team all season to score 20 points on the Wolverine defense. They face a tough challenge in Penn State, but I think they will struggle to score against Michigan. Saquon Barkley has been held under 100 rushing yards each of the last two weeks and they go up against the toughest defense they’ll face all year, as Michigan has yet to ALLOW a hundred yard rusher this season. Michigan will also struggle to score, however, as the offense has no passing game with John O’Korn under center and they were struggling with a healthy Wilton Speight. I think Penn State wins a low scoring affair and Michigan’s tumble down the rankings will continue.
Projected Score: Penn State 20 Michigan 13
#11 USC vs #13 Notre Dame (-3.5)
This is going to be a fun game. Both teams are vying for a playoff berth for the first time in either school’s history and the loser will likely be effectively eliminated from contention. There’s a lot on the line, needless to say. Sam Darnold has been inconsistent for USC but he’s always found a way to win with the exception of the Washington State game, however if he wasn’t strip-sacked on that final drive, who knows what a guy of his caliber could’ve done. Notre Dame’s one loss was against the current #3 team in the nation in Georgia and it was a narrow loss early in the season. The defense is significantly better than it was last season and while Brandon Wimbush has had some struggles, he has more than proven he is capable of leading this team on a big run. This game is a toss up but I trust Notre Dame a little bit more to get the job done as they’ve been a bit more consistent than the Trojans.
Projected Score: Notre Dame 28 USC 24
Colorado vs #15 Washington State (-10)
Yikes, doesn’t get much uglier than Wazzu’s performance against Cal. Though to be fair, nobody could’ve beaten the Golden Bears the way they played in that game and something looked really wrong with Luke Falk health-wise. Falk has had some injuries but Washington State doesn’t disclose injuries to the media in-game and we haven’t gotten a whole lot out of the Cougars’ locker room following up last week’s performance. If he’s okay, I’d consider Washington State a lock against Colorado. The Buffaloes have struggled mightily in conference play, their one win being last week against the lowly Oregon State Beavers. If he’s not okay, then I think it will be close, but I still think Washington State gets the win.
Projected Score: Washington State 41 Colorado 21
Those are my picks for this week. I noticed a lot of good teams are on bye this week, such as Georgia, Clemson, and Ohio State, so that makes the matchups a little more toss-uppy this week. If there are any other games you want my opinion on, let me know in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter @jimwyman10.